NBA Playoffs

[andre gomes]

Eastern Conference



Boston vs Atlanta


There isn't much to say in this series. The only doubt in here is if Boston will sweep the Hawks or not. Looking at the regular season records of both teams, everything appoints to a sweep (Boston 66-16; Atlanta 38-44). But the differences are much bigger than it appears to be.

First of all, Atlanta doesnt have any kind of experience at this level. Just Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby have played playoff matches before and if during the regular season, the team wasnt consistent and suffered a good number of letdowns and unbelievable losses after being up by a big margin of points, now imagine what can happen in a e playoff series against the best team in the league, with just two players with previous playoffs experience in the roster.

On the other side, Boston doesnt have playoffs experience as a team, but most key players have already several playoffs matches on their pockets. For example, Sam Cassell has already two rings on his finger and the big 3 (Garnett, Allen and Pierce) have separately went to conference finals. The team during the regular season have already shown the necessary intensiveness for this type of matches.

If we take in account what happened in the regular season, I have no doubts that Boston will easily win this series. The Celtics have won the three games between these two teams in the regular season. Even in the last match in which the starters didnt play for more than 30 minutes, Boston still won that game, outscoring the Hawks by 25-15 in the 4^th quarter of the game, after the two teams being tied at the end of the 3^rd quarter.

The X factor of this series will be what Kevin Garnett can do against Atlanta and what Joe Johnson cant do against Boston. In fact Garnett in the three games against the Hawks has averaged 23.7 ppg (30-48 62.5% FG) and 13.7 rpg in just 34 minutes per game. At the same time, Joe Johnson in the same matches has just averaged 15.3 ppg (16-51 31.4% FG) in 41 minutes per game.

With this, can Atlanta at least win a game and avoid the sweep? Because more than that would be a great sign for what Atlanta can do the future and a bad sign for Boston for the rest of the season.



Detroit vs Philadelphia


Even though there is a big difference between the two teams and from what they will achieve in this seasons playoffs, Philadelphia will come from this series with some momentum and good feelings towards Detroit. Even though this series in the regular season have ended 2-2, the Sixers have won the last two games, including one at Detroit.

Philadelphia has shown in the last months of the regular season that they are fearless, including on big games on the road, being the only team in the league who was capable to have beaten Boston and Detroit on the road this season. This team is young and extremely athletic, which causes problems to Detroit in certain matchups.

Detroit in these last weeks of the regular season has introduced their backups in the field with great sucess, as not only theyve won games, as these backups have shown that they can be useful to Flip Saunders if he needs a backup plan in the playoffs. In the last three seasons, Detroit in the first round of the playoffs has never allowed more than one game to their opponents. This trend will be tested, as these Sixers are more dangerous than any of other first round opponents of Detroit in the past first round series.

It will be extremely hard for the Sixers to win on the road in this series, but at home it will also be tough for them to get defeated. Philadelphia has managed to upset a lot of top teams on their home during the regular season.


Cleveland vs Washington


For the third consecutive season, there will be a series between the Cavs and the Wizards. In the other two the Cavs of Lebron won them by 4-2 two seasons ago and by a sweep of 4-0 last season. But this season it wont be that easy, as its the Cavs who are short handed right now and not the Wizards. Pavlovic will be out and the most important is that Lebron is limited with an injury, which puts him away from being at 100% right now. Of course he will still dominate some games thanks to his talent, but he will be in some pain during them.

We all know how important is Lebron in Cleveland and besides that we are still yet to understand if the trades made by the Cavs in mid-season really improved the team. Looking at the results we are yet to see improvements, as the Cavs dont win three games in a row since early March and for example they went 3-7 ATS in their last 10 matches in the regular season.

On the other side, the Wizards now with Arenas coming out of the bench are a complete and tough to beat team. I really think there may be an upset in this series. The Wizards have chemistry, as we have seen that during the regular season, with the team being competitive even with having an injured star all the time and now that everybody is at 100%, the Wizards will be even more competitive.

The series ended 2-2 in the regular season and both teams winning their home games, which reflects how close this series will be. This series promises to have a lot of games and for me it will be a surprise to see this series ending before game 6 or even game 7.


Orlando vs Toronto

At least one of these two teams will have the chance of going further in the playoffs than they did last season, where they were eliminated in the first round. Last season Orlando got sweeped by Detroit and the Raptors lost 4-2 with the Nets, so one of the teams will do better than they did last season. The favoritism on this series is clearly for Orlando, however the difference wont be so big as the records of the two teams in the regular season pretend it to be. Orlando finished the season with a record of 52-30 and Toronto with a record of 41-41, but we all know the Raptors have way more potential that what their record shows.

The series ended 2-1 for Orlando, who won a game at Canada, but this series will be really close. In the matchups between these two teams we saw two things: one of them is that Orlando cant stop Chris Bosh. And the other one is that Toronto cant stop Dwight Howard. However there may be a new X factor. The Slovenian Nesterovic is playing at his best level ever and he may be capable of creating a slight edge for the Raptors in the paint. The PG duel will also be very important. Nelson is a good point guard, but he is yet to prove that he is top class level, while Toronto has two completely different point guards. Calderon would be the better option, as this guy ended the regular season with numbers of one of the best superstars in the league, shooting above 50% FG, 40% 3pts and 90% FT. Thats amazing and if Sam Mitchell gives him a good number of minutes, he can make the difference in this series as he tends to make the correct decision in the clutch situations. Just like in the Cavs vs Wizards series, I predict this one to be very close and with lots of games.

[andre gomes]

Western Conference




LAKERS VS DENVER

The Lakers finished the regular season with the top seed in the West and so, they will face the 8th seed Denver in the first round of the playoffs. Bynum won't probably play during this series and I actually doubt he will play again this season. It is rare to find a difference of seven games between the 1st and the 8th in a conference, but this has happened in this wild Western conference this season. However and even though, this difference of records being so short between the two teams, the Lakers have won all three games they played against Denver in the regular season. Actually this is the only series in the West this season where a team has done the sweep to the other during the regular season.

The Lakers have won all their games against Denver and naturally they will enter this series with momentum. The team have won their last three western clashes in the regular season against Dallas, Hornets and Spurs and so, they are coming to this series with a lot of confidence. Denver on the other side won a tough battle with the Warriors for the last spot in the playoffs and they were capable to win their decisive games down the stretch. However, it's defense which wins championships and Denver can't defend.

Allen Iverson is a player used to this kind of games and he may be as dangerous as Kobe Bryant and I actually believe Denver can win a game at LA, that wouldn't be nothing amazing, but then Denver doesn't have the necessary consistence to win all their home games in this series. Nene Hilario could be an X factor of this series with his aggressiveness on the paint, but he won't be at 100% and he won't play for many minutes during this series. If Carmelo was able to be consistent that could be a big X factor, but that's also a problem for the Nuggets. The Lakers are more consistent, they have the home advantage and they should advance to the next round.


NEW ORLEANS VS DALLAS

What it's going to happen in this series? Last season Dallas was coming to the playoffs with the top seed and with 67 wins in the regular season, they were the defending runner-ups and they had to win the championship. The pressure wasn't favorable to them and they were victims of one of the biggest upsets in the history of the NBA, losing against the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. This season they were just 7th in the conference and they will be the underdog against the Hornets, who ended up getting the 2nd seed.

The odds of the bookmakers show that the Hornets are the favorites to win this series and the Mavs may be able to play with that. The Hornets have little experience at this level, however Byron Scott is an amazing coach and he is someone who has brought the Nets to the finals recently. The Hornets have almost everything to have success in the playoffs, as they have a phenomenal team, with an amazing point guard, a powerful center in the defense, a power forward who is a scorer and a small forward capable of changing a game with multiple 3pts shots in a row. The only thing that they lack is.. playoff experience. And that will be something hard for them to counter.

Dallas is a very experienced team in this type of games and Jason Kidd will be extremely important for the clutch moments of this series. The series between these two teams in the regular season ended 2-2, with both teams winning their matches at home. The last game between these two teams was exactly on the last day of the regular season and Dallas defeated the Hornets at home by 111-98. What I found weird is that the Hornets played with all their stars, even knowing that this game wouldn't change their position in the standings. The fact of they lost in these conditions may have created a big momentum in Dallas, something the Hornets should have wanted to avoid at any cost.

The edge of this series goes for Dallas in my opinion, however we can't forget that the Hornets were underrated the whole regular season and they still finished 2nd in a very competitive conference. This team is way better than most people think.


SAN ANTONIO VS PHOENIX

This will be without a doubt the series with most interest in the first round of the playoffs this season, in fact we were used to see series between Phoenix and San Antonio in the previous seasons, but on the semi finals or finals of the conference, never in the first round. As there are more top teams in the West than in the previous seasons, destiny wanted to see these two teams going head to head in this phase of the playoffs and it's funny to see that the Spurs were 3rd in the conference and Phoenix 6th, when just one win separated both teams during the regular season.

The major difference from what will happen this season and what happened in the previous years is that the Suns have now Shaq and if there is a matchup where the Suns benefit the most to have him in the roster is exactly against the Spurs, as they have finally someone to stop Tim Duncan, who was always the major problem for the Suns in their matches against the Spurs.

In the regular season the Suns won this series by 3-1, being the last two games already in the Shaq era and where not only Phoenix won both matches, as they've showed how Shaq will be useful in the series against San Antonio. In fact, Tim Duncan only shot 9-21 and 6-19 FG in those games, pretty low for what he's used to do. I remember that last season in the last game of the playoffs series between these two teams, Tim Duncan shot 11-19 FG and had 13 rebounds and 9 blocks. The difference is huge between the two season, a sign that Shaq has arrived to stop him.

However the Spurs continue to be the Spurs, they are the champions, they have the best coach in the league in technical terms and it won't be easy to beat them. Manu Ginobili has already played in the last game of the regular season against Utah and he has proved again how he is decisive in this team, as even playing just for 19 minutes, he made 12 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. The Spurs being a veteran team are always a team who has advantage in the playoffs, as they won't suffer from the effects of long trips, back to back games or little time to prepare the games, like it happened in the regular season. This won't happen now and that's why the Spurs are so dangerous in the post-season.

For the Suns to win this series, they will need to win at least one game at San Antonio. However that has happened twice in the regular season and that's a good edge and a nice motivation factor for the Suns, who will have a psychological edge over the Spurs. I predict this series to be extremely close, with a lot of aggressiveness and nothing like what happened last season, where both teams were easily reaching 110 points per game without much problems.



UTAH VS HOUSTON

One year has passed and we have the same playoffs series and even with the same conditions: Houston playing against Utah, having home court advantage. If last season Utah won the series, winning the game 7 at Houston, this season it looks like Utah will pass again the series, but without needing so many games as last season.

The scenario for this series is the following: Yao Ming is out for the season. T-Mac is limited by a shoulder injury and Rafer Alston will be out at least in the first two games of the series. This puts the Rockets in a delicate situation and it's going to be very hard for them to win a best of 7 series against a powerful team like Utah, with the players they have available right now. However there is no team in the league with more team spirit than the Rockets, who showed how much determination can win games. It's only necessary to say that most wins of their sequence of 22 wins in a row were already without Yao Ming.

Deron Williams has been practicing with some limitations due to a minor injury that he suffered on a game, but that won't stop him from playing certainly. In fact, Utah has all their team at 100%. Utah has won the series between the two teams in the regular season by 2-1, with the only game being already at the last week of the regular season, so that game already showed what both teams will be capable to do in this series. Utah won that game by 105-96, having reached the halftime already up by 15 points. This win was also the last home win of Utah at home, who managed to have the best home record of the league: 37-4!

If Utah manages to win at least one game at Houston, they will just need to win all their home matches, which won't be very hard to do. Utah is in my opinion the favorites to win the series, but if they get over confident, because of the situation of the Rockets right now, the Jazz will be risking themselves to lose this series, as the Rockets have showed that they are a bunch of warriors and they will fight for the win until the last second of every game.

[NBAShrewdie]

Man, why is everyone hating on my rockets? Has no one noticed we have won 20 of last 21 at home, only the Celtics have beat us. We also have the best record in the entire NBA since mid January, going 40-10. Also, Utah may have only lost 4 at home, but one of them was to umm, yep, the Rockets.

The more people write us off, the happier I am as it inspires T-Mac, one of the greatest playoff performers in the league, onto bigger and better things. I think the Rockets surprise everyone and make it out of the first round this year. Utah is now a better matchup for us without Yao in the side because we can now guard all 5 positions whereas before Yao couldn't guard Boozer or Okur as they can move out of the low post and shoot jumpers which Yao couldn't deal with.

So I say, Rockets @ 2.8 to win the series against the Jazz. Should be faves

[ThePope]

I like the Sixers at +9.5 tonight. I expect a Detroit win, but I can only see it being a close one with a Philadelphia team who are young and hungry.

[kroni]

i fancy Rockets to win tonight and 1.96 on betfair is a fair price i think there recent home form is brilliant and jazz sometimes struggle on the road.

[kroni]

well rockets where bound to lose since i betted them
tonight im going for Pistons -9.5 they have been resting there starters alot for there last few games and they should be ready to kick some ass. while resting some players means their bench has played more and improved alot so they have more fire power. philly has gone down hill recently lost their last 4 games and at 40-42 have one of the worst record of team in the playoffs

[blackcrow]

Boston -21.5 (line at -15)
Celtics have won and covered last four games and they are 10-1 (9-2 ATS) in their last 11 games. They have the best defence in the league and with the big three having the ability to hit shots from all over the place, they will be hard pressed to stop a big win

Hawks are thrilled to be in playoffs but they have lost last three in row and five of their last seven games.

During season, Celtics swept three in row from Atlanta, winning by 23-10-10 points.

[blackcrow]

Boston -21.5 (line at -15)

[kroni]

Pistons -9.5 they were 13 points up at half time then end up losing the game.what is going on i cant even back a home favourite at the moment
nice boston pick black crow

[danj2202]

I know the stats say that 83% of game one winners go on and win the series (hope thats wrong as am maxed on the SUNS) - the west is a bit different this year, in the East I remain convinced that the Wizards can beat a poor looking Cavs team to me, I think that Washington is healthy at the right time and the Cavs look vulnerable to me and the game the other night was close all the way till the final two minutes am happy to play Washington tonight

Washington Wizards 2.10

The other game tonight, I have to say I do not understand the Rockets optimism on this board - I would like to add I did back them to win it all at the start of the season, but if they could not beat Utah last year with Yao they wont beat a better looking Jazz team this year without him, Utah was always going to win this series and adter a road win in game one I am prepared to back them to sweep the Rockets and win game two and take it home and clean up as the team with the best home record in the NBA - they may have struggled on the road at times but lets not forget the team that had the biggest winning margin IN Boston this year was Utah by 18 - I have also bet them to win the championships and am hoping they or Phoenix makes the finals

Utah Jazz @ 2.00

best of luck to everyone who plays tonight

[ThePope]

I strongly tip the Rockets -1.0 at evens this evening. Although I think the Jazz take the series, I can't see them winning 2 in a row on the road.

[NBAShrewdie]

How is this a better looking Jazz team than last year? They finished as the 4th seed (again) but only had the 5th best record (again), only this year they are worse on the road than last year, which is a clear weakness. The only difference is they have added Korver who is just a one dimensional shooter.

Write the Rockets off all you like, I'd much rather people wrote them off, but for me I hope we can pull it off tonight and give us a chance heading into Utah. We've won there once this season already and if we win tonight we will carry the momentum to Salt Lake City and get our home court back. Watch this space

[blackcrow]

Cleveland -2.5
Lebron Jame managed to score 32 points, as the Cavaliers won their seventh straight postseason game over the Wizards, 93-86.

Cleveland have scored an average of 87 points in their last 5 games but Washington has allowed an average of 100 points.
Washington have scored an average of 94 points in their last 5 games but Cleveland has allowed an average of 87 points.

Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.

Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Wizards are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings

[blackcrow]

Cleveland -2.5

New Orleans -4.5
NO won the first game 104-92 on the back of some very good plays by Chris Paul. Dallas had no answer to him and hard to see them stopping him again.

Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games

Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Orlando -7.5
Orlando cruised through the first playoff game, winning 114-100. They have won their last 4 games as opposed to Toronto who have lost their last 4 games. Orlando have hit 100 points on their last 6 opponents while Toronto have allowed the last 2 to hit 100 on them.

Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Magic are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 home games.
Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Magic are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite.
Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Raptors are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
Raptors are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Raptors are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings

[anothamug]

think the bookies have tended to over-react to last night's game threes. Undoubtedly the favour should always be with the home side (well except in the hawks-celtic series) and teams 2-0 down are capable of coming back to make it 2-1, but this doesn't dictate that the whole series has swung.
I think the raps did a good job with adjustments on the magic in game 3 but so many things clicked into place that I can't believe magic won't be back in game 4 and the 2.4 with bet365 and 2.42 on betfair.
same logic with the lakers on 2.04 with betfair, the lakers might let one slip but 2.04 on the side who are by far and away best in the series has to appeal for a game 3 win.

[DeMMa]

im goin +7.5 Hornet... 4-1 ATS after 1 day break

[DeMMa]

Im goin LAKERS GAME 1 @ $2.70