NBA Mon 29th

[TazaD]

Atlanta v. Orlando under 181

League: 4-16 under (Av. total 189.6...av. score 181.6) home 4- dog off a 10+ ats loss as a fav, if opp is also off a 10+ ats loss. [Atl]
0-8 under (Av. total 188.1...av. score 171.7!) if the team is off a 15+ ats loss.

These teams met 2 days ago for a 93-90 result in Orlando, but both shot stupidly well...Atl 55.2% and Orl 56.5%!
That was the only time Atl had scored more than 89 in their last 6, and Orlando haven't topped 95 in their last 6.
History suggests that both teams will come out slow& conservative and concentrate on defense in this game, either way, there's not much chance of them shooting the same %'s as last game, so that alone should see this one under.

NO -5

League: 3-12 (av. loss 12.0) away 5+ dog off a 10- ats win as away 4- dog, if opp is off an upset SU win. [Port]
(0-2 for the season...inc. Mia 86-101 @ NO (+5))

Portland don't score on the road against good D's, and they're getting way too much credit for beating a terrible Memphis team last game.
They scored 69 @ Houston (no. 1 D), 74 @ Dallas (11), 84 @ SA (7), 86 @ Utah (8), 88 @ Det (4) and 86 @ NJ (6)...NO have the 5th best FG%A and have allowed just 41.8% shooting in their last 5!
The question then becomes; can NO score enough to cover the -5?
Despite some low scores recently, they did top 100+ at home to LAL and Washington to win both of those games by more than 5, and Portland have the 3rd worst D, allowing 47.5%, and 48.7% in their last 5.
NO are quietly cruising along on a 8-1 ats run, and should be far too strong for a poor travelling Portland here.

Houston v. Philli under 186

League: 0-9 under (Av. total 194.7...av. score 181.8) home 10+ fav, off a 15+ ats win as home fav, if opp is also off a 15+ ats win. [Houst]

... and 4-18 under as a 5+ fav. (If the line drops)...AND...1 of those overs was only due to OT.

The unders in this trend are due to one thing...the home team's defense. They allow just 84.2 ppg!..and unsurprisingly are 9-0 SU.
After 4 average games by theri standards, Houston have bounced back in their last 2 with strond defensive efforts.
They allow just 88.1 ppg at home as it is.
I think the total is overblown due to Philli's recent results, but a LOT of their road games have been against poor defensive teams.
High scorers @ Atl, Memph, NY, Denver, LAL, Portland, Sac and GS...
But 92-92 in reg @ Cleveland ***, 83-89 @ Charlotte, an OT in Minni, 87-98 @ Utah, 79-93 @ Dallas & 84-86 @ Orlando.

*** Another reason the total is too high is the double OT game @ Cleveland has skewed the averages.

Philli coming off a 54.2% shooting night @ Atlanta, they'll find it a whole lot tougher against a relentless Rockets D, that should keep this one below 186.

[Bill]

liking an NBA over in the Phoenix/Minnesota game
.Stating the obvious, Phoenix is the highest scoring team in the
NBA at 111.5 ppg..Suns also lead or are high in many categories
including tops in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game.
Two weeks ago..Suns and T-Wolves put up 233 points in a
29 point Suns victory.
Head to head Phoenix is averaging 103 on the road last five
in this series…Suns will be counted on for most of tonight’s
scoring if we are to get the OVER that we like..and Phoenix
has averaged 116 points last five games in this latest 17 game
meteoric win streak.
Overall game average..T-Wolves 95.9 pergame. Suns 111.5..
If they hit their averages..that wouldn’t get this game over the
209 total..
But with the way Steve Nash and the Suns are filling the scoresheet
We think that we might only need Minnesota in the mid ‘90s and Phoenix
Should easily give up that number on the road…
My is on the Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves..OVER
The 209…

[TazaD]

NO v. Portland over 179

I see Portland have come in slightly to +4, which brings into play a 19-2 over situation!
Happy to take the over because I still think NO's scoring power is being under-valued with West back in the team.

[moddi1]

shaq what are ur picks today? im thinking of Nets

[bozz]

I hate beating on the NETS. Although I've followed them for many years, they are a hard team to predict. I had some money on the Nuggets to beat the Nets & the later won by 10pts on the road (after they lost 3 games all by 1pt on the road).
Just looking at the matchups - the jazz matchup better in the paint, whereas nets matchup better on the perimeter.
Boozer & Kirilenko might be out, so might favour a rare NETS win but it will be close.

[ShaqSpear]

30 Jan 02:05 - SAC Kings v MEM Grizzlies - H-1(-1) - GB - 1.91 ----------------------10/10
30 Jan 03:05 - NJ Nets v UTA Jazz - H-1(+2,5) - Betfair - 1.96 ----------------------5/10
30 Jan 02:05 - PHX Suns v MIN Timberwolves - H-1(-5) - GB - 1.91 ---------------7/10
30 Jan 03:05 - CHA Bobcats v DEN Nuggets - H-2(-10,5) - Bet365 - 1.95-------5/10
30 Jan 02:35 - PHI 76ers v HOU Rockets - H-2(-9) - Expekt - 1.92----------------6/10
30 Jan 02:05 - POR Trailblazers v NO Hornets - H-2(-4) - GB - 1.91-----------------9/10
30 Jan 03:05 - CHA Bobcats v DEN Nuggets - under 213,5 - Betfair - 1.94-------6/10
30 Jan 02:05 - SAC Kings v MEM Grizzlies - under 222,5 - Expekt - 1.9-------------6/10

I think the Nets should win this one, although nothing is certain with the Nets. With RJ and Krstic out it all depends on Carter's display. My pick of the day is Sacramento they are improving game by game and they should win this game if memphis don't get into another exploding offensive performance.

[Bill]

Tonight we like a spread pick in the NBA on Detroit at Washington.Pretty much offense vs defense in this one. Wizards have been filling
The basket at a 107.1 ppg game clip, 110 at home while giving up
105.
Pistons ever the staunch defensive team..allowing a tidy 93.7 ppg and
A better rebounding team on both boards than the Wizards, but the
Wizards top the Pistons in steals and 3 pointers made per game.
Each team is coming off of a victory Sunday.
Now the spread is Washington( –2). We like an edge to Washington for a
couple of reasons. Wizards coming off of an impressive 2 game 2-0 road trip
that included a 3 point victory over the Pistons AT Detroit Friday.
Head to head Wizards have won 3 of the past 4 straight up with Detroit
and at just a bucket, this might as well be straight up tonight.
All the talk in the Detroit media is how the Pistons desperately need
perimeter shooting off the bench ..give a huge edge to the Wizards in
that category. Note: Washington boasts the East’s best home record of
17-4. Detroit a decent 13-8 away. Revenge angle for Detroit losing on home court
last Friday? We’re not playing it!
We like a dominant offensive team on home court. We think laying the points has value. Our pick is Washington Minus the two points over Detroit as home court favorites.
Washington minus 2.

[TazaD]

That would be tomorrow, Bill

[ShaqSpear]

30 Jan 02:05 - SAC Kings v MEM Grizzlies - H-1(-1) - GB - 1.91 ----------------------10/10
30 Jan 03:05 - NJ Nets v UTA Jazz - H-1(+2,5) - Betfair - 1.96 ----------------------5/10
30 Jan 02:05 - PHX Suns v MIN Timberwolves - H-1(-5) - GB - 1.91 ---------------7/10
30 Jan 03:05 - CHA Bobcats v DEN Nuggets - H-2(-10,5) - Bet365 - 1.95-------5/10
30 Jan 02:35 - PHI 76ers v HOU Rockets - H-2(-9) - Expekt - 1.92----------------6/10
30 Jan 02:05 - POR Trailblazers v NO Hornets - H-2(-4) - GB - 1.91-----------------9/10
30 Jan 03:05 - CHA Bobcats v DEN Nuggets - under 213,5 - Betfair - 1.94-------6/10
30 Jan 02:05 - SAC Kings v MEM Grizzlies - under 222,5 - Expekt - 1.9-------------6/10

[ShaqSpear]

BALANCE: 31.75 -3.85 = 27.9
W/T: 24/44
winning prct.: 54.05%