NBA Mon. 15th

[TazaD]

Washington -3

League: (Av. loss 7.2) away 4- dog, 0 or 1 days rest, off a 15+ ats loss as home 5+ fav, if total is 190+. [Utah]
0-5 (Av. loss 9.0) if total is 200+....
...also 4-1 over, with the team allowing 111.4 ppg!

...and Utah probably will!
They are in a big funk atm, losing 3 straight...the last 2 to Miami and Seattle, who are hardly solid teams.
In fact, after their 12-1 start, their road form (esp.) has been pretty poor, winning games @ LAC, Indi, Atl, Memph, & Denver...
...losses @ Seattle, Houston (14), SA (23), Charlotte (12), NYK (1), Min (7), Lakers (30) and GS (13) !!
Can't claim many of those performances as being ones to remember!
Washington wil be very keen to bounce back from a 31% shooting night @ SA, with no rest last game, and there's every chance they will against the Jazz who allow 102.5 ppg on the road and 106.6 in their last 5 overall.

Detroit -2.5

League: 21-9 (Av. win 5.9) as a 4- fav, 1 day off a 10- ats loss as a 10+ fav, if opp is off a 10- ats win. [Det]
9-2 (Av. win 12.1) if they are at home.

Detroit have been struggling lately, but for some reason Atlanta and Charlotte always seem to give them problems, and losses v. Phoenix and @ Chicago are nothing to be too concerned about.
Minni have one good road win this season, @ Chicago on the 9th of Dec, when the Bulls shot just 39%.
Minni being over-rated here with 9 wins of their last 12, but 3 OT's and a loss at home, wins against Charlotte and Seattle and a big last quarter surge to beat NJ last game just doesn't impress me at all.
Detroit are a class above this team and should cover a small h'cap at home.

Chicago +3

League: 38-56 (Av. LOSS 1.7) away 4- fav, 1 day off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav. [SA]
4-11 (Av. LOSS 6.0) if opp is off a 10+ ats win...
1-6 SU (Av. LOSS 9.6) if opp is off a 15+ ats win...
0-3 SU (Av. LOSS 19.7!!!) if opp is off a 20+ ats win!

So, you can clearly see, the better the opp is playing, the worse the road team will perform...
...and, on closer inspection, SA's road wins haven't been all that great anyway.
Wins @ Denver, Memphis, NO (x2), Clips, Seattle, Portland, Sac, NYK, Toronto...
...Losses @ Minni, Cleveland, LAL, Utah & GS!
Chicago are extremely solid at home, and have lost just 2 games by more than 3 points all season in their own building.

Another interesting little 'trend' is against SA here. Although they are known for their tough D, it seems they find it hard to back up next game.
SA are: 9-21-1 last 31 (Av. win 1.6) after allowing <40% shooting...inc. 0-5 SU this season!!

[expert]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Washington -3

League: (Av. loss 7.2) away 4- dog, 0 or 1 days rest, off a 15+ ats loss as home 5+ fav, if total is 190+. [Utah]
0-5 (Av. loss 9.0) if total is 200+....
...also 4-1 over, with the team allowing 111.4 ppg!

...and Utah probably will!
They are in a big funk atm, losing 3 straight...the last 2 to Miami and Seattle, who are hardly solid teams.
In fact, after their 12-1 start, their road form (esp.) has been pretty poor, winning games @ LAC, Indi, Atl, Memph, & Denver...
...losses @ Seattle, Houston (14), SA (23), Charlotte (12), NYK (1), Min (7), Lakers (30) and GS (13) !!
Can't claim many of those performances as being ones to remember!
Washington wil be very keen to bounce back from a 31% shooting night @ SA, with no rest last game, and there's every chance they will against the Jazz who allow 102.5 ppg on the road and 106.6 in their last 5 overall.

dont go overboard with WAS...Arenas is playing like a 13 year old girl lately...seems he drunk two beers too much on his birthdays party or tasted some big booty ass

[expert]

Me like NBA today a lot!! 3 plays..maybe one more..but with further analysis...so here we go..in small format, because i love to spare some room for criticism...

Sport	NBA
Event	Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards
Selection	under 215,5
Strength	10/10
Date	15/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 1.93 (Back)
Reasoning	Opened at 218 now down to 215,5. Im taking it as the main Wizards star just isnt himself lately and has been cold lately, and so has been the Wizards who really depend on his performance. The 80 pts against Spurs and 97 ag. NO only prove that.

Sport	NBA
Event	LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors
Selection	Under 210,5
Strength	10/10
Date	15/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Another likeable play...using the trends and current team status in this one: Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Also 5 players for the Golden State Warriors are out, so imo they will try to slow down the game..if not they will run out of juice and..you know what then happens...youre shooting bricks...should be an easy one imo

Sport	NBA
Event	Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers
Selection	Toronto Raptors Moneyline (OT included)
Strength	10/10
Date	15/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	That line looks strange to me...Raptors are on fire since Bosh returned in the roster. Hell they even won last h3h, and 76ers had Iverson in the squad..and he scored 35 points..no Answer today, but Bosh in full effect, also 1st pick of 2006, the rookie from Italy Bargnani is showing what he is capable off. Nothing here except clear win for the non American team (meaning not only the country of the team, but the majority of the players).

[ShaqSpear]

Sport	NBA
Event	Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Selection	Toronto Raptors +1,5
Strength	10/10
Date	15/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.75
Reasoning	And it's Toronto once again my pick of the day. Yesterday I thought they will get a win against strong Mavericks, unluckily they lost after Howard's last second basket. The Mavs have lead just 15 seconds combined in the whole game but still they have managed to take the lead at the right time and came out with the win. This story will not repeat itself today when the Raptors visit Phila. They have managed to get 4 wins in the last 6 games since they have the entire squad fit, except maybe Saw but he is not that important. They lost to New Jersey who where in great form at that moment. Phila are really bad. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games. The only win came at home vs. limping Bucks who have to deal with major injuries and stand no real chance against anyone at the moment. The other win before this 6 games was against Denver, but those guys where without Josh Smith who's return might look to have changed their future performance. In the first game this season these two met it was a 106-104 win for Toronto, after a rare last second 3pter by Bosh, but back then Iverson and Webber gathered toghether 49 points , 16 assists and 16 rebounds. None of them will be here today as Iverson was traded for Denver and Webber's contract has been bought out. They got Miller now, and he's not doing bad, good assists player, and Joe Smith who in my opinion is not good enough for a first team regular just yet. Can you believe they placed Iguodala at PF? I agree that's the right choice at the moment but I believe they need a taller and stronger guy in the paint next to Dalembert. Green is doing pretty good , so is Korver coming of the bench, but the Raptors bench looks much better, much more productive, Calderon, Jones, Graham, Rasho, and most of all Bargnani all responding at the right time. Andrea has really impressed me lately I really couldn't believe my eyes when seeing him hit those 3pters against Boston and Milwaukee with so much quickness. He has a pretty fast shoot release for a player coming from Europe, and at his age. Anyway, the Raptors are looking much better and I don't think the crowds are such a good enough factor for the sixers. It's defenitely gonna be Toronto looking better in this game.

[ShaqSpear]

ques. for Expert: how can I get to participate in the front page punters competition in the sports punter? I saw your predictions there and I'd enjoy some action.

[expert]

Originally Posted by ShaqSpear

ques. for Expert: how can I get to participate in the front page punters competition in the sports punter? I saw your predictions there and I'd enjoy some action.

here you go...
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you must first send (press Register) the admin , some info and add what sport youre good about...and then they will activate your SP account.

[QuantumParadox]

well well

seems that toronto is once again the trendy of the day...but i really dont understand this,tell me shaq, is this canadian team so powerfull to back them away from home and additionally while playing two games within 24 hours???

what about spurs shaq???

waiting your reply, i followed you when toronto won in boston

[ShaqSpear]

@Expert : k man. Thanks.

[QuantumParadox]

sorry i dont have time to wait...

so, i go with philadelphia to win, i am expecting a quite tired squad for toronto side

second choice is san antonio,and third the over 209.points at LA

GOOD LUCK ALL

see ya

[ShaqSpear]

yeah. I've also won a lot of cash when the Raptors beat Boston. First of all they are back to back right now, but I am a non believer in the back to back situations. Next, the 24 hours could be a problem, but Toronto has a pretty good bench line up, one of the best in the League, so stamina is rarely an issue. Phila played just one day before in Charlotte, and knowing how much they count on several key players they might feel even more exhausted .

San Antonio will win I guess but I wouldn't stake much on that. I'd go for the Clippers if you want my advice for another possible winning prediction.

[ShaqSpear]

Sry about that man. It's always better to go your way though. So, I hope you have good luck and get some cash out of it. Although I've staked a lot on Toronto and I'd wish for a different finish. Oh, and about an under over prediction, I think Chicago and Spurs will stay under . GL!!!

[tkt]

Phoenix-Memphis under 231
Way high total, somewhere over the roof, if Memphis did score only 66 with Chicago, then surely Phoenix can keep them under 100 points, I would be surprised to see this total go over.

[ShaqSpear]

I agree with you. Although few teams score a lot against the Bulls on their home court and at home Memphis is a slightly different team.

[tkt]

I'm going to replace this play with Pheonix -9,5, this has more chance of hitting, since Memphis lost by 45 points to Chicago

[expert]

dont go overboard with WAS...Arenas is playing like a 13 year old girl lately...seems he drunk two beers too much on his birthdays party or tasted some big booty ass

He really chose the day, to begin scoring again....
Arenas: 51 pts

[TazaD]

I was going to say something, but didn't want to look like I was rubbing it in, or bragging...

...but 1) Washington are a far better/higher scoring team at home, so don't take too much notice of their road results...
2) NO and SA are two of the very best defensive teams in the NBA...Utah on the road certainly ain't!

Man, am I happy he nailed the match winning 3 ball tho! More than happy to take the push in that one rather than risk an OT adventure. (or worse still a 2 point win!!)

SA continue to struggle to put 2 good defensive games together...but unfortunately Detroit plain continue to struggle.

[expert]

IMO... the Arenas show was what pushed the game into Over, from what ive seen the man nailed 3 three pointers and scored 12 points in the last 2 mins....if he would have been playing like recently, game would have gone under by 4-5 pts, and also Okur add his tally with 38....by somewhere 24 minute all was looking that the game would go under by more than 7pts...well what can you do Toronto did it...and now waiting for the Clippers to produce...but they just had a 64 point quarter...so it will be tight in the end

[expert]

Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards under 215,5 (111-114)
LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Under 210,5 (93-108)
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Moneyline (OT included) (86-104)


must admit i was shiting my pants about the Clippers under, in the 2nd quarter...teams combined 64 points total. i was pretty much sure that money is one the way to Costa Rica.....felt good when they were shooting the bricks in the 2nd half.
Why am I writing that....dont know...feeling relieved....

[expert]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Man, am I happy he nailed the match winning 3 ball tho! More than happy to take the push in that one rather than risk an OT adventure. (or worse still a 2 point win!!)

LOL, i remember ,around a week ago...i writen something about buying points...havent i...bookies are good, cant argue with that...

[TazaD]

Yeah, not sure I like the %'s myself.

Put it this way, I'm pretty sure it's my first (maybe second?) push of the season, so it doesn't happen all that often...certainly not 8% of the time! (Which is how much you usually give to buy the half point)

It may save you on one, two, three...five maybe games a year, but the $ you lose on taking Chicago -6.5 rather then -7 when they win by 45 (ie. every game) will cost you far more in the long run I would have thought.

Anyway, looks like everyone had another good day.