NBA Jan 9

[archaeus]

in here guys

[expert]

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons -2 @ 1.93
This looks to me like a big trick bet at first glance, Detroit with -2 pts against Sixers...wasnt really fond of putting the money down at first, but after a few look ups at the stats and trends didnt hesitate to long to take it.
so to the data:
Detroit won last 6 h2h against Phily and 8 out of 10. In both two games that they lost, the key man for Philly was "the Answer" who left for Denver this season. In all the losses Phily never covered the todays difference of 2 suggested points, the narrowest loss was by 5 points in 2005.
Next factor is Philly home succes, they are crap and won even more games away than at home. Ok Phily are 4-10 at home and Detroit has quite impressive record playing away wtih 10-7.
To the h2h trends:
Pistons are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Only next one causes some concern as "Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings".

Dont know, maybe the line is so low because of recent slump of Pistons, as they lost 4/5, but Phily are no better with only one win more in last 5. Or maybe because Billups is stil out for the Pistons, well Webber is out for the Sixers.... IMO Pistons team posesses more quality than the mediocre team from Philadelphia who won just 9 of their 33 matches this season and the two point spread difference is just too low...would take it even up to 5 points.

[expert]

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks +8 @ 1.92
Will be much shorter in this one.
Main reasons for this bet are two:
1st and the most important one is the fact that Pacers will be missing their top player Jermaine Oneal, and just probable play of Jamaal Tinsley with Tyron Lue back in the lineup for the Hawks who averages 14.7 pts this year - and most important, Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS withouth him.
2nd reason - much better performances of the Hawks team, they beat Clippers last time out with 12 pts and they really improved their FG in last two. Against Raptors they were shooting nearly 50% FG, and in their win against Clips 43% FG - they were rarely over 40% in their cold streak.

Seems that return to form of their star Joe Johnson lifted the whole team.
Also some trends (they dont mean much to me in todays play)
Hawks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

I agree that Indiana are better team, but without Oneil and questionable (probably not 100% fit) Tinsley the 8 point spread in Hawks favour looks very good to me.

[kadonovas]

Don't like much.

I've taken Toronto SU cause they're an improved team of late and seem overpriced.

I'd like to take the under in phx-sea game. The line a bit lower than I'd like I guess. Seattle away are not offensively the same though. Rare to break 100. Apparantley they changed their line-up though last time against GS and managed to 105 (didn't prevent me from being payed on the under thankfully). So I'm still thinking about it. I'll probably take it. A let down is very possible, this is seattle away after all. Plus Phx might (and probably will) walk all over them and not leave them with much fight.

[expert]

Originally Posted by expert

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks +8 @ 1.92
Will be much shorter in this one.
Main reasons for this bet are two:
1st and the most important one is the fact that Pacers will be missing their top player Jermaine Oneal, and just probable play of Jamaal Tinsley with Tyron Lue back in the lineup for the Hawks who averages 14.7 pts this year - and most important, Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS withouth him.
2nd reason - much better performances of the Hawks team, they beat Clippers last time out with 12 pts and they really improved their FG in last two. Against Raptors they were shooting nearly 50% FG, and in their win against Clips 43% FG - they were rarely over 40% in their cold streak.

Seems that return to form of their star Joe Johnson lifted the whole team.
Also some trends (they dont mean much to me in todays play)
Hawks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

I agree that Indiana are better team, but without Oneil and questionable (probably not 100% fit) Tinsley the 8 point spread in Hawks favour looks very good to me.

Unfortunately, those two decided to play afterall, and Johnson was crap, so the final margin for Pacers was really deserved....Knew it instantly as the line begin to move, few minutes before the start of the match.
Anyway, the Pistons match was never really in danger, only Igoudala was no match for Detroit team.
1/1 on the night and a slight loss in the end.

[TazaD]

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