NBA Fri 26th (Australia Day)

[TazaD]

SA v. Memphis under 213

Memphis in a 4-10 under trend, thjat is 0-13-1 under this number, so I do like having the 213.
Sure, Memphis have been playing street ball lately, but most of it has been at home.
In 3 games away (before Utah) they had scored 66, 91 and 98 (Denver)...and as I already mentioned (kind of!) history suggests that there will be a big let down after shooting 51.7%...inc. 16-26 3's!
The teams met @ Memphis on the 7th (well into Memphis' shoot-a-thon) and the score was just 96-110...SA shot 50% (14-29 3's) and Memphis shot a respectable 46.2%.
In fact, that was the last time SA hit 100, and they've since played some very poor defensive teams...Portland, Washington, LAL and Philli.
I'm not sure how Memphis get 90 here...could SA hit 120+? Possible, but reasonably unlikely.

[TazaD]

Detroit -5.5

League: 5-13 (Av. loss 15.1) away 5+ dog, off a 15+ ats loss as home 5+ dog, if opp is off a 10- ats win. [Wash]

and...League: 0-11 SU (5-6 ats...but 1-10 this no...av. loss 10.6) on 2 or more days rest, no matter what opp last did...
...0-4 (Av. loss 15.7!) if opp is still off that 10- ats win.

Washington's D is just not very good...esp. on the road. They give up 107.6 ppg away from home...and have actually allowed 48.8% shooting in their last 5 games, 4 of which have been at home!!
Detroit came off a horrible run without Billups, but now have won and covered 3 straight with their PG back and Webber starting.
Detroit have beaten the Wizz twice this season, 100-91 @ home in November and 115-111 @ Wash a week later.
They are one of the few teams capable of shutting down Washinton's offense, and shold score enough at home to cover the -6.
Det are 10-3 when scoring 100+...Washington are 3-9 away when scoring < 110!

[TazaD]

Utah -3.5

League: 4-14-1 (Av. loss 5.1) away 4- dog, off a 10- ats win as away 4- fav, if total is 200+ [Denv]
1-9-1 (Av. loss 6.9) with rest.

Denver have won their last 5, and 6 of their last 8, but not coincidentally against some of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Seattle, Memphis, Portland, Milwaukee are THE 4 worst defensive teams, and even Houston have allowed over 50% in their last 5.
Utah are 8th best, allowing 44.6% at home, and there's great line value after a terrible game v. Memphis last time out...mind you they still out-played the Grizz, but shot just 17-29 FT's which really hurt. (They shoot 75% usually)
Utah are the better team here and should be able to win and cover.

Milwaukee +10.5

League: 17-9-2 (Av. loss 7.3) home 10+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 5+ dog. [Mil]
8-0-2 (Av. loss 0.6) if opp is off a 10- ats loss.

League: 3-12-1 (Av. win 4.7) away 10+ fav, off a 10- ats loss as away 5+ fav.
1-10-1 (Av. win 2.7) if opp was last a 5+ dog.

...4 of those games are common (1 push), so a combined 17-3-2 trend in favour of the Bucks here...
...very strong numbers...but that's about it!! Man, it's tough to take this game.
Phoenix are on a huge winning run, Milwaukee have lost 10 of 11...although only 3 have been by 10 or more...but it doesn't look like they have the fire-power to stay with the Suns here.
Maybe half stakes...

Minni +2

League: 3-12 (Av. LOSS 6.8) home 4- fav, 2 days off a 10- ats loss as home 4- dog. [Seattle]
...1 of the wins was by 3 in OT.

Seattle? Winners of 6 in 21...Against poor travelling Toronto and Cleveland, under-manned Milwaukee, Boston and New Orleans...favs?
Minni aren't great, but losses to Det, Utah and Phoenix is no shame.
Minni won the first meeting at home by 19 points, and kept Ray Allen to just 14 points...do that again and they win again here.

[Donald_Duck]

I don't trust Utah to do the job here...Denver are resting since tuesday and they are looking for revenge

[razbet]

I wonder if there s any value on Denver @2,45 vs Utah . The hosts lost against poor Memphis ( who played some kind of streetball .... 16-26 from 3 points ... ).
With Carmelo back , and Iverson on a good mood they can win this one . The spread at +3,5 looks good too ...

[ShaqSpear]

@Taza : Happy Australia day!!! great pick tonight with the under man. And with the Detroit game. Funny thing about the streetball played by Memphis last game. I'm not sure about the other tips but I wish u good luck. And happy birthday 2 u and 2 all the residents of Australia!!!

[Donald_Duck]

I like that Minnesota play but I got +12.5 at Pinnacle @ 1.93

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

"Orlando is 6-15 Under vs. teams with a losing record"
"The Magic are 0-10 Under as favorites of 6.5 to 12 points and they are 6-15-1 Under at home this year"
Atlanta is 5-13 Under off 2 straight games where they had 19 or less assists."
The last 3 meetings between these teams have gone"

UNDER 180.5 - 1.95 @ Pinnacle



Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers

Cleveland is averaging 95 PPG and is allowing 103.2 PPG and 3 of last 4 games has went over.

Philly is averaging 101 PPG over their last 5 while allowing 104.6 PPG and their last two has went over.

Seven straight meetings has went over.

OVER 182 - 1.97 @ Pinnacle

[TazaD]

Careful with that Cleveland over, DD.

LeBron OUT.

They were 0-3 under last season without him...
Last meeting (2 days ago) was right around the 180 mark in reg. and James scored 38 I think.

Hopefully someone can pick up the slack.

(I hope you mean Milwaukee +12.5, otherwise I got severely ripped off! )

[ShaqSpear]

These are my tips for tonight. Sry for being this late:

CLE Cavaliers v PHI 76ers - H-1(-1) - 1,91 - GB -10/10 - 02:05
BOS Celtics v TOR Raptors -H-2(-8,5) - 1,92 - GB - 8/10 - 02:05
PHX Suns v MIL Bucks - H-1(-11,5) - 1,91 - GB - 10/10 - 03:35
WAS Wizards v DET Pistons- H-2 (-5) - 1,91 - GB - 5/10 - 02:05
DEN Nuggets v UTA Jazz - H-1 (+4) - 1,92 - Expekt - 6/10 - 04:05
MIN Timberwolves v SEA Sonics - H-2 (-1,5) - 1,91 - GB - 4/10 - 05:35
MEM Grizzlies v SA Spurs - H-2 (-12) - 1,95 - 10Bet - 7/10 - 03:05
MEM Grizzlies v SA Spurs - under 211,5- 1,91- GB - 10/10 - 03:05

[ShaqSpear]

from what I heard LeBron is in doubt, but there are chances that he will play.

[Donald_Duck]

of course I meat Milwaukee +12.5...lol


Cleveland went over and Milwaukee covered the handicap but unfortunately so Atlanta went over too...one 3-pointer too many

[TazaD]

Glad I got that Minni +2 when I did!!

Without wanting to rub anything in, here's one for you Denver backers...directly from CBC sportsline recap...

...Anthony missed a layup in the third quarter because he didn't release the ball when he went toward the basket. He was called for traveling,

Huh??...What was he thinking?? Can't wait to see thta highlight tonight!!

Shaq, was watching Sports Centre when I said James was out...sorry, should have been more specific, in that it wasn't a "guess" from me...
...not that it affected the game one little bit!

I watched the Detroit game, and they seemed to lose all intensity in the 3rd. They had been DOMINATING the boards (as they should have!), but let the Wizz have 4-5 easy second chances which really put it back in their favour.
Jamison was huge tho...one of those games I guess...although, still very surprised Det didn't hit 100+.

Anyway...tomorrow is another (hopefully profitable) day.