Nba 9/11

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Fen4e

Sorry for the OFF topic but what about the Utah Jazz today??? Looking good at -6 at home.

They are actually -6 away Fen4e

So...

Utah @ Seattle under 214 (2.03)

League: 0-8-1 (Av. total 207.1...av. score 195.2) away fav, total 200+, off a 10- ats win as a 5+ fav, if opp lost ats as a home dog. [Utah]

For some reason, the Seattle totals so far have been inflated...they are 1-3 under in 4 games and have only topped 100 once (101 v. LAC).
Utah are 4-0 over, but just 2-2 this number...everyone looks like they'll score 120+ on GS, and Seattle won't shoot over 55% like the Lakers did!
It's a lot of points when one team doesn't score...I don't think Uath will hit 110+ to knock this one over.

Cleveland -6

League: 12-2-1 (Av. win 16.2) away 5+ fav, total 190+, off a 10- ats win as a 5+ dog, if opp is off an ats win. (Both ats losses were SU wins by 5!)
8-1-1 (Av. win 16.8) with rest.

The Kings aren't very good! Just 1 win, v. a crappy Seattle and 3 BIG losses...admittedly against some quality teams, but if the Cavs want to be in the top 2 or 3 in the East they must win games like this.
They won both meetings last season, by 24 at home and 10 @ Arco.
The better team wins out here too.

Holding on a couple of other lines...

[TazaD]

513

San Antonio Spurs

-3

1188

-150

I'll take the under thanks

[TazaD]

Portland -1.5

League: 1-18 SU (Av. loss 7.4) away 4- dog, off a 10- ats win as away 4- fav, if both teams last shot <45% [Mem]
0-6 SU and ats (Av. loss 9.2) if opp won ats.

Portland got their first win last game...it was their first home game, and what a schedule they've had! SA, Houston and NO x2...likely all top 6 teams in the West.
Memphis have won both road games, but Seattle and Minni are both worse teams than the Blazers.
Portland will be happy for the step down in class here at home.

[saintg1]

Interesting situation here. The previews I have read suggest Atl @ Bos, Den @ Was and Mil @ Hou should all go over the line by a margin > 12 points. The lines are set at where you'd probably expect based on season performances todate. Can the previewers be that wrong or do they have the benefit of gleaning information we don't have access to?

EG: the line in Den @ Was is set at 209.5. Denver games thus far are averaging 207 and Washington 188, yet I've seen previews suggesting it could go up as high as 228.

Atl @ Bos: 193 (187 & 197) --> 210
Mil @ Hou: 188.5 (183 & 187) --> 200

So, on this there is a case for going all three unders, yet the previews are overs. Curious!

[TazaD]

I think the under is a very good shout @ Boston...would have liked a few more points to actually play it (197)...but yeah, not sure where they're getting the 210 from...

Phoenix -8

League: 6-19 (Av. loss 10.9) home 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 10+ dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Mia]
2-11 (Av. loss 11.8) if total is 190+
0-7 (Av. loss 153.1) if opp shot <45% ...1-10 (Av. loss 13.5) if total is 180+

Miami are rubbish! 1-11 ats in their last 12 home games, and av. just 82.8 ppg so far this season.
The line is a bit low due to the Suns' big loss at Atlanta, but I don't see how an old, slow Miami keep up here.
Phoenix won both meetings last season by 28 (h) and 10 (a).

LAC @ Detroit over 191.5

League: 11-1 over (Av. total 191.0...av. score 203.8) away 5+ dog, off a 20+ ats win as away 5+ dog if they shot <45%. [LAC]

Clippers games have av'd 208 ppg, and gone 3-1 over this number...even their last game @ Indi went 193, with lower than average shooting and just 9 total fast break points!!
Detroit av'ing 98 ppg, and went 190 yesterday @ Chicago, but just 37 points in a tight last quarter.
Clips play an uptempo game that will force Det to run and score.

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Sacramento Kings - Cleveland Cavaliers
Selection	Sacramento Kings +6 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 1.95 (Back)
Reasoning	The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home dog of 5.0 to 10.5 points and The Kings are 45-25 ATS in their last 70 home November games. Cleveland is just 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 1-2 on the road this season while Sacramento is 1-0 at home.

[TazaD]

I know it's a long season ahead, but I'm already sick to death of favs winning but not covering...