Nba 6/11

[TazaD]

Orlando -6.5

League: 6-19-2 (Av. loss 11.4) home 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 5+ dog, if opp is off an upset SU win as a dog. [Min] (Team av's 84.0 ppg)
1-9 (Av. loss 17.9!) if opp shot <45%. (Team av's 80.6 ppg!)

Orlando get this one done with defense. Beisdes a horrible meltdown v. Detroit they have held Mil and Wash to 82 and 83 points...Minni haven't topped 94 in 3 games as it is. They only kept it close to NY last game with a good last 2 minutes, but Jefferson has a far tougher time against Howard than the soft(ish) Knicks interior.

NYK +3 (2.03)

League: 4-16 (Av. LOSS 1.8) away 4- fav, off a 10+ ats loss as home 5+ fav, if opp was last a 5+ fav. [Denver]
0-9 (Av. loss 6.0) if the game went 10+ under.

Denver were a lot of people's fancy pick this year, but early on they haven't played as well as expected...just 1-2 ats, and besides a big score v. Seattle, just 99 and 88 points.
NY have started the season well...disappointing last few minutes v. Minni, but I think they can score well enough on Denver to possibly win the game.

[Anderson.]

I like what I see.

[Svart]

LA Clippers +10@1.65

Chicago played not so good first days, I was thinking abt. total (over) but decided play this way seems for sure even looking at last couple years stats.

Atlanta@2.85

Here I can't see a favorite, chances 50/50 for me that's why I bet on Atlanta good odds best value possible. Moreover they won Dallas and loose 1 point away in Detroit, they capable to win this game for sure.

Spurs@1.9

Houston are rolling good, but Spurs performance as a team was allways better especially with "one player" team , here I see low scorring game but guests victory despite all for me is obvious. Spurs know how to stop Yao and T.Mac!

Cavs@Warriors
Any given bookies total over! Feelings...

[mgas98]

TazaD could you explain me what means the first explanation you give for each game, please?

For example: League: 6-19-2 (Av. loss 11.4) home 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 5+ dog, if opp is off an upset SU win as a dog. [Min] (Team av's 84.0 ppg)
1-9 (Av. loss 17.9!) if opp shot <45%. (Team av's 80.6 ppg!)


GL

[andre gomes]

LA CLIPPERS at CHICAGO


This is the game of the night for me. Looking at the record of both teams, nobody would go on such high handicap. But the Bulls will have tonight something they didn't in the first three games: time and peace. If the Bulls had to play last Sunday, they wouldn't have time to prepare the match and they would have lost again.
Chicago, maybe because of the ghost called Kobe and due to the instability in the team started the season in horrible fashion. In three games, the best match they played was a match where they shot 39.5% FG, which is terrible. Today they face a team that is probably one of the best teams they could get right now.
The Clippers are coming from two wins, but more important than that, they played against two soft teams: Seattle and GoldenState. In psychological terms, it will be terrible for the Clippers to face tonight an aggressive team like the Bulls. The matchup between Hinrich and Cassell will be favorable to the first one and the difference between the two teams will start here.
Today the center Noah will play and his aggressiveness will allow him to get a lot of rebounds. Thanks to their 0-3 record, the Bulls even with the win secured will want more and my confidence and will be a lot of difficult to Clippers scores medium/high points
My pick will be the under. After 2 overs for the Clippers, the line is clearly overrated. In normal conditions, it wouldn't be higher than 191,5 points. The aggressiveness of the Bulls won't allow a high scoring game. And if we based on the records from above, since the 90/91 those matches ended 13-4 u/o and 6-0 in matches played at home.

PLAY UNDER 194.5 POINTS

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Minnesota Timberwolves - Orlando Magic
Selection	Orlando Magic -7 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	06/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.99 (Back)
Reasoning	Orlando is 9-0 ATS after allowing a shooting percentage of 35% or less and they are 5-0-2 ATS their last 7 road games and 17-8 ATS vs. the Northwest Division. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS off a road cover where they lost straight up and 6-18 ATS at home off 1 or more consecutive losses. Minnesota is 6-20 ATS their last 26 home games.

Event	Milwaukee Bucks - Toronto Raptors
Selection	Toronto Raptors -4 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	06/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.03 (Back)
Reasoning	Toronto Raptors won 3 of 4 vs the Bucks last year and all three victories came by double-digits. The Bucks are just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times they were home underdogs of three points or less, the Raptors are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they were road favorites of three points or less

Event	Golden State Warriors - Cleveland Cavaliers
Selection	Golden State Warriors -2 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	06/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.91 (Back)
Reasoning	Golden State Warriors are 0-3 and hungry for a win tonight. The Warriors are 9-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 13-3 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by mgas98

TazaD could you explain me what means the first explanation you give for each game, please?

For example: League: 6-19-2 (Av. loss 11.4) home 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 5+ dog, if opp is off an upset SU win as a dog. [Min] (Team av's 84.0 ppg)
1-9 (Av. loss 17.9!) if opp shot <45%. (Team av's 80.6 ppg!)


GL

Quite literally...

...since 1995, a home dog of 5 of more is 6-19-2 ats, if last game they won ats by 10 or less as an away 5+ dog, and their opp won SU as a dog.
The av loss of those teams is 11.4, and they average 84.0 points per game.

Sac v. Seattle under 208

League: 22-38 under (V. total 207.4...av. score 204.0) away 4- dog, total 200+, off anay ats loss as a 5+ dog. [Sea]
4-17 under (Av. total 208.5...av. score 200.4) if they shot 45%+
0-11 under (Av. total 209.4...av. score 194.9!) if their last meeting went over.

Just a case of these teams being unable to sustain their current shooting numbers!
Seattle have played 3 very uptempo teams, and Sac had a combined 57.6% shooting last game!...inc.46.5% 3's and 90% FT's.
Lot of points and I'm pretty sure something gives here.

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Sacramento Kings - Seattle SuperSonics
Selection	Sacramento Kings -2 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	06/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01 (Back)
Reasoning	Both team has started bad with 3 straight losses but Sacrementos had much harder opponents. All 3 losses came on the road against the Mavs, Spurs and Hornets. Seattle is 3-14 ATS in road games against excellent free throw shooting teams hitting 80%.

[TazaD]

Pretty good day by all it seems.