Nba 5/1

[TazaD]

Sactown @ Chicago over 191.5

League: 10-2 over (Av. total 199.2...av. score 198.8!) away 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as away 5+ dog, if they shot >55% [Sac]
5-0 over (Av. score 204.2) on no rest.

9 of the Bulls last 10 home games have gone over this number!
The Kings have hit 100 in 5 of their last 8, despite shooting a poor 42%!
But, finally finding their range last night, hitting over 55% against a solid Cavs D.
They shouldn't have any trouble dragging Chicago into an uptempo game and points should be the result.

[BigMc]

hey tazad! these statistics are very impressive. where do you find these statistics? I'll be really happy .

[Sawyer]

BLAZERS VS JAZZ

Hi NBA Fans! It's Saturday and are you ready for some NBA Action? I got 3 hot picks for you tonight so let's have a look what we got here!

I must admit that Blazers started to impress me. Not to mention only their 13-game winning streak. They even beat Bulls on the road. Still, I can't trust them against play-off teams like Dallas or Spurs but against Jazz, I see a great chance for Blazers here..

Portland's 15-3 record at home is very impressive. On the other side, we have 6-13 Jazz here. AK-47 is out in Jazz and his absence will be a hugeblow for visitors.

Pick Portland -2.5 and enjoy the match..

Portland -2.5
1,76 @ Bet365
8/10

PISTONS VS CELTICS



It's Pistons Time!

There's no favourite in this match, it's a completely head-to-head game. Well, let's have a look at both sides..

Both Pistons and Celtics will be playing b2b tonight. Yesterday, Celtics hardly beat Grizzlies at home while Pistons beat easily Raptors by 16 points. I must imply that Pistons were awesome in defence.

I'm expecting Pistons to win this one. Surely, they like to show "Who's the boss in East?" with a victory against hot-running Celtics. Not to mention, Pistons already beat Celtics away this season.

About total line, Hımmm I think 181,5 is a fair line. I'm not expecting both Celtics and Pistons to hit 90's, maybe only one of them will score 90's. Both Celtics and Pistons will play with caution and pay attention to defence. Underthese circumstances, we should not expect a high-scoring game.
So Under 181,5 sounds a good pick too..

Under 181.5 Points
1,90 @ Bet365
8/10

Pistons ML
1,70 @ Bet-at-home
7/10

[Ugrath]

I'm almost sure that i'm going to bet Boston ML and Bos+points tonight. This game looks so much like the one boston had against LAL. Everyone was talking about how it would be an easy game for LAL since boston had not been impressing in that particular roadtrip. LAL were 2.5 points favorites but got blown out...

So this time they "barely" win against memphis, everyone is on detroit, so boston steps up to the challenge again and wins SU?

[Ugrath]

Might add the under too. Will probably be a very defensive game.

[Sawyer]

LET'S GO HORNETS!

Yesterday, Hornets crushed Warriors by 12 points and tonight they will visit Suns. As you know Warriors and Suns are similiar teams, they enjoy high-tempo game and fast-breaks. If Hornets can beat Goldenstate, why not resist against Phoenix as well?

Tyson Chandler: 22 Rebounds!

Let's remember yesterday. Tyson Chandler played with 22 rebounds yesterday and as you know dominating ribounds is the key to victory. I'm expecting Hornets to dominate the ribounds tonight and keeping Suns below 100-105 points by slowing the game tempo.

Hornets are 13-5 on the road

Hornets have a chance to win but Asian Handicap is much safer. Tonight, I can't see Suns beating Hornets by double-digits.
Therefore, my pick is Hornets +9.5! Let's Go!

Hornets +9.5
1.71 @ Bet365

[TazaD]

Suns -7.5

League: 12-4 (av. win 15.2) home 5+ fav, total 200+ off a 10- ats loss as home 10+ fav, if the game went 10+ under. [Suns]
8-1 (9-0 this no...av. win 19.1) on 1 or 0 days rest.

Phoenix coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding Seattle to just 38.8% shooting, and 20% 3's...and only lost ats after a 13-33 opening quarter!!
NO gave up 53.2% to GS...39 fast break points!...but shot 12/23 3's to keep them in the game.
Expect that % to drop tonight, and if they play the same way tonight the Suns will run all over them.
West also questionable will be a MASSIVE loss to NO.


EDIT: Sawyer...this has nothing to do with the fact we are on opposite sides tonight...but constantly buying points is a really bad way to go...unless you're going to 'sell' out to higher pries just as often. (Which it appears you aren't doing.)

It takes so much % away from you...which is already the books advantage for a start.

You will still lose games...and the games you win only due to the extra points will not make up the difference.

NJ was a perfect example the other day...You took +8.5 (9..5?)...when the were plenty of +6.5's about for the 'full' 1.91 (at least!)...the win by 6, and you effectively cost yourself 25% (I think you had it at 1.66?)

...just a thought.

[Sawyer]

Tazad, buying points can keep you alive many times. Don't forget Nets handicap was 5/6 when we posted our picks

If I had Bobcats +5, my bet would be lost..

I'm developed a line calculation system and I pick the correct line according to this system. It's no matter if it's 1,67 or 1,83. I just pick "my" line not the one bookie is offering.

I strongly recommend teaser bets, give it a try man
If Suns win by 5-6 points, you'll understand what I mean

Thanks for sharing btw, GL dude

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

i am taking the over in celtics - pistons. Two pretty damn good teams on no rest and one of them allowed 95 against memphis last night who are pretty bad right now...that was at home as well, where boston average way less against them. The previous game between these two was rediculous. Boston shot 49% and lost to Detroit who shot 40%... i think 181 is pretty low in this case. im expecting 1 team to nearly hit the hundreds, probly the pistons but u just never know with boston.

[kroni]

Atlanta Hawks - 4
Hawks had a bad game last night and i think they will bounce back tongiht now they play at home again and they can end NJ's 4 game winning streak.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

[kroni]

Sacramento Kings +8
Kings had a pretty good performance last night even if they did lose which ended their road winning streak of 3 games. kings are 4-11 on the road which doesnt sound so good but thise 4 wins have come in the last 6 games, so they are improving alot more recently. Chicago have started scoring better recently but they are still losing they are 6-9 at home with 4 of those loses in last 5 games and i think they miss their second best scorer for this game.

Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Sacramento is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road also its goes back a long way and might not count for anything but Kings have beaten Bulls 15 times in their last 16 games!!!

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Tazad, buying points can keep you alive many times. Don't forget Nets handicap was 5/6 when we posted our picks

If I had Bobcats +5, my bet would be lost..

I'm developed a line calculation system and I pick the correct line according to this system. It's no matter if it's 1,67 or 1,83. I just pick "my" line not the one bookie is offering.

I strongly recommend teaser bets, give it a try man
If Suns win by 5-6 points, you'll understand what I mean

Thanks for sharing btw, GL dude

Alive many times? How many exactly? I will just about be certain without actually knowing exact numbers (please post if you do know them***) that the % losses you are taking from lowered prices is far more than the "extra" wins you are getting because of the points.

Would you have taken Nets +8.5 @ 1.10??

And, +6.5 was available @ 1.91 and better right up until an hour before tip-off.

Sure, it's all about risk (ie. winning games)...but it's just as much about reward.
There is ZERO point in winning 9 bets in a row, only to lose the 10th and be back to square one.
(Obviously an exagerated number...but 3 or 4 in your case, instead of 1 anyway.)

and, fwiw, Phoenix might just win by 6...and I'll lose my bet...

...but at the same time you'll be getting paid only about 77% of what you "should" be...

*** Seriously...I'd love to know the amount (in %'s) of games you've won only because of the extra points.

[kroni]

New Orleans Hornets @ Phoenix Suns UNDER 209

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games

Also the total has been UNDER 209 in the last 10 games between these teams!
I think too many unders!

[TazaD]

Sawyer...sorry to bang on about this...

...but what you need to find out, is how many NBA games (per year, last 10-15 years, whatever...) finish with margins 3-4 points either side of the closing line.

My guess is that it won't even be close to the 15-20% mark that you are giving up each bet. (Well, not each bet obviously...but the ones you do buy.)

Each to his own obviously, but mathematically, buying points doesn't add up.

[TazaD]

1 point in the last 1:06 in Chicago??!! Are you ****ing kidding me??!!

A Ben Wallace FT is the ONLY score in the last 1:06??

Oh man...

Nice call on the Hornets Sawyer...15 O-boards to 8...only 8 TO's...solid game.

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Originally Posted by whycantistayawayfromdogs

i am taking the over in celtics - pistons. Two pretty damn good teams on no rest and one of them allowed 95 against memphis last night who are pretty bad right now...that was at home as well, where boston average way less against them. The previous game between these two was rediculous. Boston shot 49% and lost to Detroit who shot 40%... i think 181 is pretty low in this case. im expecting 1 team to nearly hit the hundreds, probly the pistons but u just never know with boston.

both Ds on fire as usual, but some really easy shots missed, watched 3 quarters of the game

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

LET'S GO HORNETS!

Yesterday, Hornets crushed Warriors by 12 points and tonight they will visit Suns. As you know Warriors and Suns are similiar teams, they enjoy high-tempo game and fast-breaks. If Hornets can beat Goldenstate, why not resist against Phoenix as well?

Tyson Chandler: 22 Rebounds!

Let's remember yesterday. Tyson Chandler played with 22 rebounds yesterday and as you know dominating ribounds is the key to victory. I'm expecting Hornets to dominate the ribounds tonight and keeping Suns below 100-105 points by slowing the game tempo.

Hornets are 13-5 on the road

Hornets have a chance to win but Asian Handicap is much safer. Tonight, I can't see Suns beating Hornets by double-digits.
Therefore, my pick is Hornets +9.5! Let's Go!

Hornets +9.5
1.71 @ Bet365
WON!

This was to easy

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Portland -2.5
1,76 @ Bet365
8/10
WON!
Under 181.5 Points
1,90 @ Bet365
8/10
WON!
Pistons ML
1,70 @ Bet-at-home
7/10
LOST!

3 W 1 L, not bad..

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

This was to easy

exactly tazas point, you could have had a lower spread and better price. You even correctly said they could win SU, i always tend to back any of my dog bets on the ML if they are < +10

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

This was to easy

Not bad at all...(although too) would be the word you're after

Point still stands...after a 1.71, 1.76 and 1.66 x2 the other day, you've now taken (totally un-necessarily might I add) 4 bets at (.71+.76+.66 +.66 =2.79) to get where most people would only take (less than) 3...
...ie. you should be (at the very least) 3.64 (.91 x 4)
(Not to mention one of your extended h'caps lost)

...ie. you are (very nearly) a whole game behind the 8-ball as it is.

Mate, like I say, I didn't make up the maths, I just use it.

I'll assume you're not even going to bother looking up those numbers, so I guess I'll do my best...I'll get back to it in a day or two...

(Funny how some people are quicker on the quote button when there's something to "prove" other than a losing day )