Nba 28/12

[TazaD]

NJ -4

League: 12-1-1 (13-0-1 this no...av. win 14.1!) any home fav, off a 10+ ats loss as home dog, if they shot >45%, and opp is off an ats win. [NJ]

NJ shot well enough last game but were up against the red-hot Pistons (best team in the East ) who just happen to be the team that turn the ball over the least in the NBA.
Now they get a Wizzer team who played well above themselves last game @ Charlotte, shooting over 48%, and 11/22 3's!
They had less rebounds, more TO's and less PIP...not entirely surpring still they won against the NBA's 3rd worst D.
Much tougher scoring time here, and the 4 looks very coverable.

Indi +9

League: 10-2-1 (10-1-2 @ this no...av. loss 1.5) as a 5+ dog, off an ats loss as a 4- dog, if they shot <45%, and opp shot >50% and won by 10+ ats. [Indi]
(2-0 SU this season! Atl 105-96 Pho @ home +5...LAC 97-87 Sac away +5)

Well, fresh of one unlikely win today in Seattle, it's Indi's turn to buck all logic!
Guess we're just looking for some deviation to the mean in shooting %'s as much as anything...Indi off a 41% night, and Det off a 52% effort.
Just one of those quirky situations when things turn out closer than they "should" be.

Philli @ Sactown under 191

League: 4-14 under (Av. total 193.0...av. score 189.6) away 4- dog, off a 10- ats win as home 4- fav if they shot 50% [Phil]
1-11 (Av. score 187.5) if opp last shot <45%

Philli games av. just 188 ppg on the road, and just one of their last 5 away from home would have gone over this number...and that was just 196 @ Memphis who alow the second most points at the second highest % in the NBA.
Philli have a bit of a scoring let-down here, and the Kings continue to struggle.
Last meeting the teams combined for over 52% shooting...this one will be much more "normal" in bth %'s and scores.

[veldre]

Also considering to take Sacramento Under and -3.5

[Sawyer]

TIMBERWOLVES +9.5!




Portland's Noel Dancers look hot, aren't they?
Maybe we should go to Portland for New Year!

Don't let Minnesota's 1-13 road record mislead you, Timberwolves' ATS record is very impressive. They lost at road but thanks to their warrior spirit, they win against the spread..

Trailblazers are very hot at home with 13-3 and it's not surprising to see hosts as favourite tonight.

Portland is very stront at home and they can beat any team at the moment. That's true. However, they don't crush opponents by a huge margin. Portland don't blow teams out and Minnesota likes to fight. Under these circumstances, I'm not expecting Portland to crush Minnesota by 10 points or more. Homeside is close to victory but by 5 or 6 points, not more. It's not Spurs or Pistons, it's Trailblazers..

Minnesota +9,5 sounds very good here. I would give 8 confidence for Minnesota +7.5 but Visitors +9,5 deserves full stakes.

Minnesota +9.5
1,85 @ Bet-at-home
10/10

[Sawyer]

INDIANA VS PISTONS

Hmm, this refeere must be a big fan of Rasheed.

Bookies must be crazy! I can't believe that bookies are offering 95 line for Pacers! Tonight, the visitors will face Detroit Pistons; one of the best defences in NBA!

Detroit defence is awesome with allowing opponents to score only 89,5! On the other side, Pacers are playing with 104 points per game but tonight I can't see Pacers scoring 100 points against Pistons.

Let's have a look at Detroit's defence in last 5 matches..

Nets scored 82
Rockets scored 82
Grizzlies scored 67 (!)
Celtics scored 85
Warriors scored 87 (!)

Wow, even run'n gun Warriors scored 87 against Pistons! Underthese circumstances, visitors team total bet sounds very good.

My pick is,

Indiana Pacers Total Points Under 95
1,89 @ Betsson
9/10

[veldre]

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns should have no problem outscoring the Los Angeles Clippers. It goes without saying that the Phoenix Suns have the much better offense. The Phoenix Suns are scoring an average of 109.6 points per game. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Clippers are scoring an average of only 93.1 points per game. This shows that the Phoenix Suns have a huge advantage on the offensive end. Also there is big problem with injuries in Clippers. The favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these teams, and we see the favorite (Phoenix Suns) getting another win tonight!

suns (-14)

[veldre]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

INDIANA VS PISTONS

Hmm, this refeere must be a big fan of Rasheed.

Bookies must be crazy! I can't believe that bookies are offering 95 line for Pacers! Tonight, the visitors will face Detroit Pistons; one of the best defences in NBA!

Detroit defence is awesome with allowing opponents to score only 89,5! On the other side, Pacers are playing with 104 points per game but tonight I can't see Pacers scoring 100 points against Pistons.

Let's have a look at Detroit's defence in last 5 matches..

Nets scored 82
Rockets scored 82
Grizzlies scored 67 (!)
Celtics scored 85
Warriors scored 87 (!)

Wow, even run'n gun Warriors scored 87 against Pistons! Underthese circumstances, visitors team total bet sounds very good.

My pick is,

Indiana Pacers Total Points Under 95
1,89 @ Betsson
9/10

in this game I like detroit -9.5.....

[Ugrath]

Originally Posted by TazaD

NJ -4

League: 12-1-1 (13-0-1 this no...av. win 14.1!) any home fav, off a 10+ ats loss as home dog, if they shot >45%, and opp is off an ats win. [NJ]

NJ shot well enough last game but were up against the red-hot Pistons (best team in the East ) who just happen to be the team that turn the ball over the least in the NBA.
Now they get a Wizzer team who played well above themselves last game @ Charlotte, shooting over 48%, and 11/22 3's!
They had less rebounds, more TO's and less PIP...not entirely surpring still they won against the NBA's 3rd worst D.
Much tougher scoring time here, and the 4 looks very coverable.

Indi +9

League: 10-2-1 (10-1-2 @ this no...av. loss 1.5) as a 5+ dog, off an ats loss as a 4- dog, if they shot <45%, and opp shot >50% and won by 10+ ats. [Indi]
(2-0 SU this season! Atl 105-96 Pho @ home +5...LAC 97-87 Sac away +5)

Well, fresh of one unlikely win today in Seattle, it's Indi's turn to buck all logic!
Guess we're just looking for some deviation to the mean in shooting %'s as much as anything...Indi off a 41% night, and Det off a 52% effort.
Just one of those quirky situations when things turn out closer than they "should" be.

Philli @ Sactown under 191

League: 4-14 under (Av. total 193.0...av. score 189.6) away 4- dog, off a 10- ats win as home 4- fav if they shot 50% [Phil]
1-11 (Av. score 187.5) if opp last shot <45%

Philli games av. just 188 ppg on the road, and just one of their last 5 away from home would have gone over this number...and that was just 196 @ Memphis who alow the second most points at the second highest % in the NBA.
Philli have a bit of a scoring let-down here, and the Kings continue to struggle.
Last meeting the teams combined for over 52% shooting...this one will be much more "normal" in bth %'s and scores.

Nice to see you back TazaD!

Like the picks

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Indiana Pacers Total Points Under 95

It is going to be close I suspect...

...as I said, history suggests a decent bounce back spot for Indi...and in those 13 games in this situation, the road team (Indi in this case) has scored less than 90 just twice...and more than 95 on 8 occassions.

(Hey, no-one thought Seatte would top 90 either )

Orlando -3.5

League: 4-15-1 (Av. loss 7.0) home Conf dog, off a <45% shooting night as away 4- dog, if opp last shot >50% [Mia]
0-8 (Av. loss 13.6) if they also lost the last meeting ats.

The Magic own Miami! A 21 point win at home already this season, and 5 straight wins before that, 3 @ Miami, covering the spread each time.
Orlando have had a tough run of late, but they are still scoring (and shooting) well...this plodding Miami team won't be able to take advantage of their lack of defensive pressure.


(Thanks Ugarth )

[veldre]

detroit
NJ

[TazaD]

Well, Indi did their bounce-back bit...unfortunately Detroit carried on their merry way!

...veldre, NJ what exactly?

Carter grabs a rebound with 4 seconds left and no-one fouls him 3 points down??!!

[veldre]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Well, Indi did their bounce-back bit...unfortunately Detroit carried on their merry way!

...veldre, NJ what exactly?

Carter grabs a rebound with 4 seconds left and no-one fouls him 3 points down??!!

I took NJ without a spread

[Ugrath]

Originally Posted by TazaD

Well, Indi did their bounce-back bit...unfortunately Detroit carried on their merry way!

...veldre, NJ what exactly?

Carter grabs a rebound with 4 seconds left and no-one fouls him 3 points down??!!

Yep, that sucked pretty hard. NJ up 107-100 at one point close to the end. I'm clueless to why they didn´t give any effort at all to foul after the last shot from NJ with 8 secs to go.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by veldre

I took NJ without a spread

Well you didn't post it, so no-one gives a toss.