Nba 27/2

[robby]

Opening thoughts

Suns +3 looks worthwhile. Neither team has looked good at all. But the Hornets did come off a shocking loss and had a day off. Suns didn't rest up that much against Memphis last night. 214 looks like a high total.

Pistons (Pick) seems a worthwhile play. Both teams came off of hard fought games, Pistons have been on the road a bit though even with the day off.

Minni +11.5 looks pretty solid against the Raptors who have had issues closing out teams of late.

Najera is out and Anthony is sore and the Nuggets came off a hard fought game. Can they close out -8? Even if it's the Sonics.

Total in the Bulls/Pacers game looks a little low even at 207

Magic, and dare I say.. Knicks looks like they can cover.

Back later with plays, but it'll be a slow night for me.

[TazaD]

CBC @ NY under 198

League: 5-12 under (aV. TOTAL 193.2...av. score 182.1) any fav, 2+ days rest off a 10+ ats loss as 10+ dog. [CBC]
0-10 (Av. score 176.3!!) if total is 190+ (0-1 season)

Bobcats av. just 91 on the road as it is, now without Wallace shud struggle even more.
NY av. just 94 for the season...both teams shooting in the 43%'s in the last 5 games.
Charlotte numbers have been boosted by 2 OT games in their last 4...NY D numbers look bad, but have played 5 of last 6 away. They held Toronto to 99 last home game, and I suspect Charlotte will have a much touger time of it.


Also taken Denver @ Seattle under 213...back a bit later with that.

Looks a bad spot for Minni to score...esp. after their total was about 10-15 more than it should have been yesterday...
..and Chicago in a 1-11 under spot, but yeah, I think there could be some points so staying away.

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Indiana-Chicago
Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Bulls are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
My pick: Indiana -2;

NO-Phoenix
Road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Hornets are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
My pick: Phoenix +2;

Utah-Detroit
Pistons are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Jazz are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.
Jazz are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 home games.

Pistons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.
My pick: Utah -1;

LAC-Portland
Favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

Trail Blazers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
My pick: LAC -2;


Good luck!

JC

[danj2202]

Evening guys 1-0 lat night makes 10-15 overall and 4-2 on the week

picks for tonight are as follows

Orlando @ Philadelphia - Orlando ML

The Magic are 12-5 ATS on the road as fav this year and 15-2 straight up. They are also 9-5 SU and ATS in the 2nd of back to back games this year. The Magic have won both of the meetings between the teams this season and are 17-2 SU against teams below .500 and 14-5 ATS, on the other side of the ball the 76'ers are 6-11 ATS against teams with winning records and a meagre 2-15 SU. I will play the money line as its only a couple of points but looks the safer bet to me tonight. The 76'ers have been playing well and have won six straight at home but the last loss was against the Magic in a tight game at the beginning of the month and the Magic are flying on the back of 3 straight wins themselves and I think they have the better team and will win just here tonight.

Minnesota @ Toronto - Raptors -11.5

The Raptors this year are 5-1 ATS when favoured on the spread by more than 7.5+ points and won ATS against the Timberwolves by 23 - DOUBLE tonights spread and that was on the road!!! just over two weeks ago. My other two main stats are that the Raptors are 9-5 ATS against teams with losing records and the Timberwolves in the second of back to back games are only 4-8 against the spread. With points coming from the bench I expect Toronto to blow out a poor Timberwolves team tonight and win comfortably by 15+.

Charlotte @ New York - Bobcats +7.5

This spread is too high - I would think a fairer number is around 4 points - The Knicks have a horrible record as any sort of favourite against the spread this year they are just 2-7. Charlotte won the last meeting ATS between the two teams. The number on the spread in my opinion is a knee jerk reaction to the injury of Wallace - granted this team is 1-6 when he has not played this year but the spread is still high - this is the Knicks we are talking about!, and the Bobcats are a poor road team that does well at the Garden so I think this is a solid bet tonight.

Phoenix @ New Orleans - New Orleans -3

The Suns do not do well against the Hornets, against the spread they are 0-3 this year and 0-5 the last two - the Hornets are rested and are 25-19 with 1 or more days rest while the Suns going back to back tonight are 5-6 ATS in that situation. The fact that the Suns are an elite team is also not relevant the Hornets are 10-5 ATS against teams above .500 this season and are underrated, they could win this by double this spread.

Detroit @ Utah - Over 196.5 total points

On the road this year Detroit are 16-12 in favour of the over, the last time these teams met this year the total went over and the over is 3-0 in all meetings of the two teams the last two years - its also a fixture which I think the Jazz could well win and considered a play on them on the spread but decided it was slightly too marginal, the solid play on this game is definitely the over as both these teams in the situation of Pistons on the road and jazz at home lean towards the over. Though the Pistons will try and slow down the Jazz this is their backyard ans they dont get stopped easily here!!!!!!.

good luck everybody

[danj2202]

Originally Posted by danj2202

Detroit @ Utah - Over 196.5 total points

On the road this year Detroit are 16-12 in favour of the over, the last time these teams met this year the total went over and the over is 3-0 in all meetings of the two teams the last two years - its also a fixture which I think the Jazz could well win and considered a play on them on the spread but decided it was slightly too marginal, the solid play on this game is definitely the over as both these teams in the situation of Pistons on the road and jazz at home lean towards the over. Though the Pistons will try and slow down the Jazz this is their backyard ans they dont get stopped easily here!!!!!!.

good luck everybody

Sod it, convinced myself now too with the home run of the Jazz Utah -1 is now also a play

[robby]

Kings over Atlanta ML
I think the money line approaching 3 is too much value to pass up versus a team that generally sucks, lost big the last time, and doesn't have Williams in the line up tonight. Kings looking bad against Miami isn't a sign to me, Miami will win a few strong if they stay healthy.

Toronto vs Min over 199
Trends show under, Min can't score etc.
Again, a value play. Toronto can score big when it wants to, Min can give up some points. But I still think that Min can get a few rushes in here and there against a Raptors team that has had some lapses (though done decent ATS).

Magic -1.5 vs Philli
Magic continue to score and continue to win. Philli will be in this based on its defense alone, if it holds up. So it's going to be close if they do, and the Magic should hold. If not, then it's a blow out.

I also have a prop play on this one in the glory hunters forum.

Sorry about having the early games on here late, swamped with work. But wanted to get these up before they started.

[TazaD]

Denver @ Seattle under 214

League: 16-30 under (Av. total 188.9...av. score 185.3) home 5+ dog, no rest off a 10- ats win as away 10+ dog [Sea] (inc. Orlando @ Seattle this season)
(1-5 under when total 200+)
0-4 (Av. -9.6) if they shot >50% last game.

How many are Seattle supposed to score in this game?! They av. just 96.8 on the season and just 95.4 on no rest.
They are 9-22 under when the total is 200+ and 1-13 under as a dog of 7-9.5!
Sure, Denver love to run and score, but they've gone over this number just 4 times in their last 16 games.
Missing Najera's energy off the bench will be a factor...either way, 214 is a lot...certainly a lot for Denver to score!

[robby]

0-3 - good runs must come to an end I s'pose.

Taking a bit of that under on the Sonics/Nuggets game. Anthony pulled up sore from the Pistons game from what I read, Najera is out. Seems like not only will the points not come from the Sonics, but may not come from the Nuggets either.