Nba: 26/2

[blackcrow]

Orlando -5.5
Orlando have won 4 of their last 5 as they have also scored at least 100 points in 9 of their last 10 games.

While both teams are allowing an average of 100 points per game in their last 5 games, Orlando have scored 110 points to NJ's 100 points

Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite.
Magic are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 road games

Nets are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Nets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog

Magic are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New Jersey
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Miami-Sacramento
Kings are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Kings are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.

Kings are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
Kings are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

My pick: Miami +2;


Memphis-Phoenix
Suns are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis.
Road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Grizzlies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.

Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Suns are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

My pick: Phoenix -10;

Good luck!

JC

[robby]

No picks yet, but opening thoughts on a few of the games.

Miami +2 looks a treat. The Heat are getting stronger each game with Marion over, though not getting over the hump. How healthy is Wade is my question.

Cavs -3.5

I've been on record before. I really, really like the trade that they've done in Cav country. I read that James was pushing for Kidd, I'm assuming he was wanting someone to just feed him the ball. But the trade he got was so much better. They can pick and roll now, they have an outside shooter, they are a dark horse with that trade. As these guys gel they're only going to get better.
Mil has had a couple of surprising wins (Den and first of a home and home with Det). That should only help the Cavs bc it'll prevent the shock and awe approach. Mil can win, and the Cavs need to play as if they can.

Wiz and Rockets - I don't know. Both of these teams I wanted to fade after the all-star break, but the Rockets continue to win, and the Wizards continue to beat the ATS. Can the Rockets continue to score? After the Wizards played yesterday in a very long game, I don't see them winning this one at all. But I don't know if they'll walk in and lose by 12+.

The Suns should really walk into Memphis and lay down some law. But after last weekend who knows what they'll do. This looks very much like a statement game in the making. A Nash assist prop could offer some value.

Can the Lakers win by 16? Uh, yeah. Will they? I'd say so, with Roy looking like he's out for Port. Portland did give the Celtics a hard time last time out, but then again so have several other teams as of late. The thing that has caught my eye is the 202 total, which seems awfully low. It can easily be a 120-85 game, or it can shape up to be a 100-105 game. Last game Lakers have had sub 200? Exercise for the reader.. but let's just say 3 times since Christmas.

The total looks low because of Roy being out, but the Lakers have had games against teams with less quality than a Royless Port and have beat 202, so it looks quite juicy.

On first sight the Jazz and Golden State games look quite marginal.

[robby]

A main play for today
GS/Sonics UNDER 222

Something about Golden State and a spread of 15 points just scares me. However, the under on 222 points is quite inviting considering the situation.

On the Sonics side Watson (16ppg, 5reb, 7.5 assists avg since the all-star game) is out.
Wally, West, and Thomas are gone on trade
Wilcox is doubtful. (8ppg, 6reb, 1 assist since all-star break).
I don't see Durant and the rest pushing 100ish

Golden State
Jackson is back, though has had limited minutes since the all star break with ankle issues.
Biedrins is out (12.5ppg, 10reb).
They have other scorers, which is the reason why GS has the large spread against a depleted (trade, flu, injury) Sonics. but 222 is a large score to hurdle.

Cavs -3
Mil has had some big wins against big teams, which is why I'm assuming this line is inflated a little too much. The Cavs (really!) have an impressive team after the trade. Going against the Griz was the best thing for them as a first game. While this game won't be nearly as easy, there's only a 3pt spread and I think that James with his new core could do put some of that newfound excitement to work. Wallace has started well coming from the Bulls and Wally will only get better as he gets cleaner feeds out to the arc. Varejao is back tonight, which is ironic, a few nights ago they couldn't feild enough players, and now when it comes to positional players who are used to getting a lot of time, they have too many.

The new core's defensive look should help slow down Redd and Williams as well.

Lakers -15.5
Blake, Webster, Outlaw, Aldridge, and Przybilla are the starters. Combined stats 59pts, 26reb, 9 assists between them on average since the all-star break.
Bryant, Gasol, Odom *alone* combined stats 70ish, 22reb, 12 assists average since the all-star break. Just three guys mind you, and um.. Bryant was ejected in one of those games..

Lakers have been great ATS as of late, the bench doesn't quit, Portland is so overmatched on paper it should translate to an easy win for the Lakers. For me, the 16 points for the win seems a risk well worth taking. The Over doesn't feel as good as it did this morning however.

Suns -11.5
A shit game, a day off and a new day versus a shit team.

Shit game-
Suns looked horrid against Detroit. Bad passes and poor timing spiraled the turnovers, Shaq missing easy layups when he clearly was in position to dunk, taking in passes too far from the board and had issues working his way back, Nash not seeing open players when a man swung over to double team Shaq. It was clearly an awful game.
A day off-
The Suns elders got some rest in the Detroit game since it was a rout, then there was a day off where hopefully the timing issues can be further worked on. Every game that Shaq is playing you'd like to think that he'd get better. Though I'm not sure where his peak is at the moment. The Suns clearly out of all of the trades have one of the biggest change of style hurdles to overcome.
New Day Shit Team -
The Griz are in a downspiral the rest of the year. No question. It's not even about rebuilding, it's about draft picks and salary cap room. The Cavs came in here with a whole new core surrounding James and completely whipped the ATS against them. They don't have any depth, Miller is always hurt and generally just isn't worth the cash.

D'Antoni has said that today was the day they needed to put some serious tone into their game. It's about the playoff race they're in, and seeding has to be one of the larger concerns to the Suns who look like their going to be in the bottom shuffle unless the Lakers falter.

Stoudemire has thrived against them in the past, and it was before the change of position when Shaq came on board, so on paper and past results, he could have a blow out game. I got in late to get the -10, but I'll happily take the 11.5 against a team that shouldn't do anything worth while and behind a team that is doubtful to quit till the 48 minutes are done.

Ming is out for the rest of the season. Guess I can start seriously looking at fading the Rockets now. I don't know what value there will be in the future. Not touching the Wizard game when the market gets opened, a tired team that has stars gone itself (butler may.. may come off the bench tonight) and a forced new look rockets. too fluid for me.


GL

[kroni]

Memphis Grizzlies - UNDER 103
Memphis are struggling at the moment they are 1-11 in last 12 and have only scored over 103 once in those games and that was there only win. they have struggled to score since trading Gasol and average only 92 ppg in last 10. ok Suns arent brilliant at the moment and allow 104 ppg but i think they can limit Grizzlies to under 100

[veldre]

Laying on Warriors also seems a reasonable bet. Golden State has handled Sonics with ease of late (10-1 ATS last eleven games).

[danj2202]

Ok, record now stands @ 9-15 overall and 3-2 this week

tonights picks are simple enough, I wanted to play more, only found one I like and should have take the better line earlier in the day

Orlando @ New Jersey - Orlando -5

The Magic are 2-1 ATS against the Nets so far this season and 11-5 against the spread when favourite on the road, the Nets have a horrible record against teams above .500 this year going 3-8 ATS while the Magic are 13-5 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record. The nets have gone 2-1 since they traded Kidd away but I dont believe that is a run that they can continue forever, there is only so long they will be able to sustain the push and extra energy of having to step up and fill that hole - the depth of bench for the Magic is excellent and while I never seem to be on the right side with them I am hoping for the right result tonight!!!!

Good Luck everybody

[robby]

Over the past week or so I've done decent with some prop plays, debated throwing them in the Glory Hunter forum, but I'll go ahead and throw them here tonight.

Durant over 20 points @ 1.80 (Bodog). - 8/10
As I mentioned above, Watson is out. Wilcox is doubtful. So frankly, who else is going to do anything? Durant by default is the go to man. He's only averaging .369 FG% (in Feb) which makes this a risk play, however I suspect he's going to get several attempts as Seattle feilds a lot of bench players. Unless it's a large blow out early where he's rested up (averages 33.6 minutes in Feb) or he shoots awful from the floor, he'll get the chance to get to this number.

Stoudemire Total points and rebounds over 35 @ 1.77 (Bodog). - 5/10
I won't go back too far in stats because I feel they're a little skewed. Shaq coming around has really opened his game up quite a it. He's averaging 23.7pts and 9.2rebounds for the season. However, in the past 5 games he's averaged 37.8pts and 8reb. Going against Memphis can really allow him to shine. I may have even taken this on points alone, but adding in the rebounds is worthwhile to me.

O'Neal -1/2 vs Wallace Total Rebounds @ 2.20(Bodog) - 5/10

With Wallace being with the Cavs now, and considering the tougher game tonight I don't see him having easy rebounds afforded to him. Also, the Cavs have a really solid front line with good rebounders outside of him, so thinking that he's going to get a few isn't exactly automatic. Shaq, though in three games, has been getting some rebounds with the Suns, (9, 11, 14). He has an easy team tonight and should (sigh, should) be able to boxout Brown with ease. Brown, who has been playing with the Griz for a little while now has only had one 5+ rebound game (since feb 2). Represents value to me.

Nash over 10.5 assists @ 1.80(Bodog) - 5/10
Yet another prop on the Suns game, but I can't see him not having a decent day in this regard. He's clearly needing a good day passing the ball, going against a team that shouldn't give him that many headaches. And if Stoudemire is going to have a decent game, it'll be Nash feeding him the ball.

I have a couple more on the late games, but I'll see how these plays go

Pulling for ya dan
Again, good luck everyone.

[robby]

Does Wizards SU look juicy @ over 5's after Houston just lost Ming to anyone? It's tempting..

[TazaD]

Cavs @ Milwaukee over 197

League: 13-4-1 over (16-1-1 this no. Av. total 200.4...av. score 211.4) home (-3 to +3), total 190+, off a SU win as home 4- dog if they shot <45% [Mil]
7-0-1 (Av. score 216.0) if they are 4- dogs.

Agree with robby, that the trade can only help ease Lebron's scoring load, and be better for them offensively.
109 last game @ 51%, admittedly against a weak Memphis, but are the Bucks any better defensively? Allowed 108 @ 47% last 5, and 96+ in 14 of 17.
They are scoring tho, 100+ in each of last 4...and 3 of those games have been v. Det (2) and NO, so no slouches defensively.
Cavs allow 98 on the season.
Plenty of decent over trends for both teams, so I think there'll be some points.

Utah @ Minni under 201

League: 2-17-1 under (Av. total 197.8...av. score 185.8) home 5+ dog, off a 10- ats loss as home dog, if they shot >45% and opp is off a home ats loss. [Min] (0-3 under this season)
0-8-1 (Av. score 172.2!!) if they were last a 5+ dog.

Just looks like a tough spot for Minni to score. Topped 100 just twice in last 13, and have scored 88 or less in 8 of those games.
Utah have been lighting it up lately, but there's every chance they get dragged into a sloppy game here as Minni tries to keep it tight...besides, Utah's numbers have been padded by playing some bad D's and high scoring teams lately (GS, Sac, Denver)...but a trip to Memphis didn't top this number and last game came easily under as well.


Would have taken Miami +3...still think they are a very good chance for the win, but staying away...

...also a good situation for Lakers, I ust think the 'cap is spot on! Would have liked a 14 or so...every chance they still cover, but just a little tight for my liking.

Good luck today guys.

[Sawyer]

WARRIORS VS SONICS

Sonics are hot after All-Star break with 3-1 ATS. Goldenstate's defence is a joke with allowing opponents to score 108 points per game. If you want to cover the spread, you need a good defence. I can't see Warriors covering the spread tonight, so pick Seattle +15 and enjoy the game!

Seattle +15
1,95 @ Fonbet
9/10

Btw, I must admit that Robby's Durant Over 20 Points pick looks very nice, as I mentioned above GSW doesn't have any defence so Durant should not have any problems to score over 20 points tonight. Good luck!

[TazaD]

Oh, you just gotta love a meaningless dunk with 10 seconds left!

...not so much Utah, who played the foul game 10 points down with 44 secs to play?!! Are you kidding me...19 points in the last 45 or so??!!

[blackcrow]

Orlando -5.5

[robby]

Now traditionally I bet tennis and first quarter aussie rules, both a couple of areas that have really tight plays. But last night was pretty tight in all of my plays. Most, last second.

The orlando game was under the spread till a late rush, suns looked like shit but had a 4th quarter rush to get the spread, bryant missed a lot of shots in the first half to give the lakers a slow start, and damn near came back for the 16, cavs had it, blew it, came back to tie it.. so I'm thinking overtime and a chance to cover, then a large 3 gets shot at the end. GS/Sonics paced for an over early, but a slow 3rd kept it in check.

On the props Shaq didn't play the 4th but still held the rebounds +1/2. Durant passed 20 with 4 seconds left, Nash covered early, but then went shooting instead of passing in the 4th, so it could have been another story just as easily, 'mire had 32 on the total, missing it by 3 because Diaw had a monster game (for him) with 15p, 11r, and 7a.

so 2-2 on the games, 3-1 on the props means a profit, but damn that was all close.

(and I really wanted miami, but I was thinking it would be too close, and it was the only sure thing of the night)