Nba 25/2

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Toronto @ Indiana	$1.63	$2.62
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans	$6.00	$1.19
Atlanta @ San Antonio	$7.60	$1.12
Chicago @ Dallas	$5.30	$1.21
Detroit Pistons @ Denver	$1.73	$1.81
Boston @ LA Clippers	$1.21	$3.55

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Spreads:

Toronto @ Indiana	-3	3
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans	10	-10
Chicago @ Dallas	9	-9
Atlanta @ San Antonio	12	-12

[blackcrow]

Toronto -4.5
Toronto have averaged 108 points in their last 5 games while Indiana have conceded 102 points. Indiana have scored an average 96 points while Toronto have allowed 98 points.

Toronto have already beaten Indiana by 9 and 11 points this season

Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite

Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.

Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
Raptors are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings

[robby]

Toronto -4
Toronto is my main play as well tonight. Leaning on 'crows stats to start, and noting that the one loss ATS was against the Knicks in the first game of the home and home. Clearly, Crawford was in the ultimate zone and Toronto still held in there. So I wouldn't look at it as a negative more than I would "one of those nights".

Early thoughts on the rest of the games that peaked an interest.


I really look for the Hornets to come out and make a statement tonight. The Wizards in their current state are clearly a team that should make it easy to make. Butler is still out, Arenas is still out and Stevenson is still under the injury cloud, but represented well against the Bobcats.

To me there is no question on the SU, but -10 ATS still leaves some lingering doubts. Will the Hornets dominate, or will they win cheaply?

It would be interesting to see the stats on 10 or more ATS plays from both clubs.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in last 6, 4-1 in last 5 on the road. Of those games however were against a Bobcats without Wallace, undermanned Cavs, the Knicks, and the Clippers.

Hornets are on the other side of the ATS, 3-7 out of the last 10. But they haven't been playing chumps at all. Actually from a glance they may have had one of the, if not the hardest last 10 in the league.

GS, Utah, Spurs, Rockets, Suns and Dallas are all in the mix. Lost ATS to Milwaukee, but I would say a lot of teams will the rest of the season. When it comes to the ATS lines I think Milwaukee will become one of the harder teams to nail down the rest of the year. Either they can score, or they can't.

I quite like Hornets -10. Washington continues to do a bit of traveling while the Hornets have been close to home, Stevenson while making double his season average the past couple of games (note, the teams played) he's still under the injury cloud, and it should be a statement game. Hornets need this game to build on. Washington is the team to fade till they get the duo back.

Spurs -12. This one I like as well. In what will be a low scoring game I'd presume (Spurs 3rd best defense, Hawks 10th best). Parker is back, and if the last game is under any indication, he's healthy. Ginobili continues to shine and with both of them being healthy I can't see them losing this one SU at all.

An interesting stat is that the Hawks have played 16 of their games against teams with a lower PPG average than them. They're 3-13 in those games. If you take out the first game of the year (vs Dallas) or the two games against Philli, they're 0-13.

Of those losses they've had 8 over 10. Which include Celtics (21), Spurs (12), Pistons (11, 10), Dallas (13), Raptors (11), Rockets (19). Pistons (4, 1), Port (2, 1), Hornets (6) round up the rest.

So even though they're a moderately defensive team, they clearly can get blown out by ten plus. The blow outs are 4-4 when home or away, so it's not exactly a road problem, but a problem none the less.

Bibby being sold as the aide for a "playoff run" is clearly overrated. Though they do have a moderately easy schedule the last half of the season. He's sitting under an injury cloud as well.

At first the -12 looks like a margin play and the line is pretty tight, but the digger I deep it feels like the Spurs have a solid chance to cover.

I'll look at both lines later in the day and see how they've moved.

[robby]

Pistons -1

Is this going to be a let down game? I don't think so. They got on a plane to play three of the top in the west with a game vs the clippers to finish it off. I don't see them looking at tonight as something to chance on.

They're rested. In the rout that they gave the Suns the 5 starters all played below their normal minutes. A couple, well below as the bench continued what the starters started.

They looked as good as I've seen them last night, and frankly stat wise over the past two games. Now while some of yesterday was clearly the Suns undoing, the quickness of the transition from offense to defense cannot be underrated.

Nuggets do get Linas Kleiza back as he was rested the previous game with an ankle strain.

The "shootout" style of play should really hurt the Nuggets in this game. I'd say with the Pistons impressive defense and transition game there will be quite a bit of turnovers and as long as the bench for Detroit continues the high value play, this is a no brainer.

[danj2202]

Ok last week not too good, went 6-13 on the week, heres to a better week

Detroit @ Denver - Over 205 total points & Denver ML

I think this total is tight, but in close games as this one will be these teams combine for 11-5 in favour of the over and I look for the Nuggets to come out firing tonight, their stats this year following a loss are 16-5 in favour of the over as well - Detroit are fresh and will play good D but they can put up points also - I think 204-207 is a fair shout for the total, but as I think this game goes close and we add in the possibility of OT as well then I think it is a solid play. The Nuggets usually play well in the first game of a homestand as well - their first game back home they are 8-1 SU and ATS this year - however their record against teams above .500 is horrible - the fact that the Pistons are coming off a huge win over the Suns leads me to believe this is a possible letdown game though and will play Nuggets on the ML as well small stakes though as most of the numbers favour Detroit ATS - its a hunch play.

Atlanta @ San Antonio - Spurs -12 & Under 187 Total points

I think the Spurs are the better team here, they won against the spread the only previous meeting this year between the teams and at home I expect them to win by 15+ points against these Hawks, there are no amazing statistics to back this one up, the Spurs even are a surprising 5-8 ATS against teams under .500 but I think they will win this with ease and both teams lean towards the under play - as detailed in their previous game that went under scoring only 178 points - This is a good spot for teh Spurs tonight to continue their excellent recent run and for the Hawks to make it 9 defeats in 10.

Boston @ LA Clippers - Boston -9

the Celtics have a whole host of numbers in their favour here, they are 8-3 ATS against teams below .500 while the Clippers are just 4-9 this year ATS against teams with a winning record - the previous meeting the Celtics covered the spread - going back to back is no problem they are 7-5 ATS and the Clippers are just 3-9 ATS when an underdog by more than 7.5 - oh and the Celtics are the better team coming up against the Clippers who do not know whether Cassell or Kaman will play tonight and if they do it could well be for limited minutes.

also considered playing both the Mavs and the Hornets ATS tonight but left them alone as decided they were too marginal for me.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY

[veldre]

taking toronto too cuz:

Raptors are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4 games;
Indiana is 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games;
Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record; In their last 11 games played with 1 day rest between games the Pacers are 3-8 ATS;
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Indiana;
and
Pacers are 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings between the clubs.

[blackcrow]

San Antonio -12.5

Spurs have won 9 of their last 10 while Atlanta struggle with 1 win in their last 8. In their last 10 Spurs have allowed only 1 team to hit 100 points while Atlanta have allowed 7 of the last 8 to do so.

Atlanta are playing their 5th game in 7 days on the road so they could be pretty tired against a red hot Spurs side with Ginobili, Duncan and Parker

Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games
Hawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.

Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings

Hawks are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hawks are 0-6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio

[TazaD]

Wow...bad signs today lads...we're all on the same train...

Tor -3

League: 4-20 (Av. loss 6.6) home 4- dog off an ats loss as a 4- dog, if opp won 10+ ats as a 5+ fav. [Indi]
(0-13 (Av. loss 10.3) non-Div, with rest)
0-8 (Av. loss 12.0) if they lost last meeting ats.

Yeah, got me where this line is coming from??

Raptors with 2 good ats wins from 2 this season...104-93 last trip to Indi.
Toronto is just about the best scoring form in the NBA, hitting over 50% in their last 5, scoring 107.6, up against an Indi D that allow 105, and have given up 98+ in 20 of last 22!
Seems unlikely that Indi can keep up here.

[kroni]

hi guys, havent looked at the nba for a while but im gonna have a little play tonight i think. at first glance Raptors -3 looks to easy why is it so low? maybe its some sort of trap but i jump straight in it, i just cant see any reasons for Pacers to win this!

[zimpan25]

lol this is the first time for me on this usa sports thread when everyone is on the same game? like tazaD said its not looking good lol

Go Raptors!..

[danj2202]

to be honest, I have jumped on the Raptors now too as everyone seems so convinced lol - so heres hoping - you can all blame me if it loses

[veldre]

in worst scenario we will all get drunk and there will be BIG SILENCE here tomorrow

[zimpan25]

Danj220 you coward you gotta join us..

[robby]

Boston -9.5

This one I've debated on quite a bit and taking this line as it may move as the night goes on.

Kaman is doubtful tonight and if he plays he'll get limited time. Cassell won't. Now Cassell isn't exactly what he used to be (well, he's far from it) but it shortens up what they have on the bench. The bench isn't productive at all.

Kaman & Cassells combines stats - 30+ ppg on avg, 16 rebounds, almost 7 assists.

Besides the 6th man the Clippers have the 6 other players all averaging under 5pts a peice, and one over 4 assists. and no one over 4 rebounds. The Clippers just have no depth.

It could be a let down game as Boston hasn't exactly been dominate over the road trip (ok, had their asses handed to them) and had to come back last game. However, I'm calling this one on pure depth alone.

I'm also playing a few parlays with limited points. Round Robins actually.
Hornets -10, Spurs -12 and my three plays here.

It'll be a fun night, good luck all.

[robby]

If Kaman doesn't play, the under looks really nice as well.

[JCtips]

My bet for today:

SA-Atlanta
Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hawks are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hawks are 0-6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio.

Spurs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Spurs are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Hawks are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hawks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Hawks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Hawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

My pick: SA -12;

Good luck!

JC

[TazaD]

Field Goals

1-17, 5%

(That was SA at 1/4 time!)

[robby]

Congrats on the Raptors -3 guys, I'll take the push after all of that.. phew.

[blackcrow]

Toronto -4.5

Parker misses one of his two free throws to knock me out.

Robby pushes while TD gets the win