MLB: July 9th picks

[ReasonableGuy]

Event Arizona - Florida
Selection Florida -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.36 (Back)
Reasoning Over is 23-9-1 in the last 33 meetings in Arizona.
Over is 5-0 in Petits last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 39-17-2 in Diamondbacks last 58 games a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 12-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 9-4-1 in Diamondbacks last 14 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Millers last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Over is 8-2-2 in Marlins last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Arizona usually beats Florida at home. Today their starter is deeply pathetic. With an ERA 8.46 in 27 IP and a WHIP of 1.81 he can't pretend too many things here. Andrew Miller is a decent starter and he did well against Arizona in the past. Due to the fact that both of these 2 teams scored a lot when playing against each other and that today the Arizonas starter is so much worse, I think that in this case Florida will win with a handicap of -1.5 at least. Over the total set ... highly probable too, but I don't know just how many Arizona will score because :
Diamondbacks are 9-24 in their last 33 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Diamondbacks are 26-53 in their last 79 games as an underdog.
Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
So it's really not so easy to say it will be over but with that starter Arizona has all the chances to lose this. Don't know how many they will score so I will say : Florida (-1.5)

[ReasonableGuy]

Event SF - SD
Selection UNDER 7
Strength 10/10
Date 09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning Under is 8-2 in Lincecums last 10 starts vs. Padres.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
Under is 4-0 in Lincecums last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 25-12-4 in Giants last 41 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 15-6-3 in Giants last 24 vs. National League West
Under is 8-3-1 in Giants last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Lincecum is a very good starter . He was rock solid last season too and this season he looks the same. This match will be won by SF but as I don't know if they will score enough to have a handicap I will be happy only with the under 7 option, because Padres starter is also decent and SF are not in the mood for scoring after 3-0 and 0-7 in the last 2 matches. Padres starter has low WHIP but allows home runs, so if he allows home runs but the bases are not loaded they can't lose at large margins. Narrow low scoring win for SF. Under 7 my pick

[ReasonableGuy]

Event Tampa Bay - Toronto
Selection Toronto (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.36 (Back)
Reasoning Blue Jays are 9-4 in Halladays last 13 starts vs. Rays.
Blue Jays are 7-2 in Halladays last 9 road starts vs. Rays.
Rays are 4-10 in their last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 45-19 in Halladays last 64 starts vs. American League East.
David Price is poor and he's a left-handed starter. Toronto enjoys such starters and Toronto batters are in scoiring mood. Toronto scores many home runs and Price is a guy that allows many home runs. And with a WHIP of 1.71 that could prove to be fatal for Tampa. Toronto to win this (-1.5).

[blackcrow]

Toronto -1.5 (2.29 @ pinnacle)
Halladay is 10-2, with a 2.79 ERA and even though is lost to the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 after allowing 2 runs in 6 innings on June 29, it was his second start coming off the disabled list.
Blue Jays are 9-4 in Halladays last 13 starts vs. Rays.
Blue Jays are 7-2 in Halladays last 9 road starts vs. Rays.

Price is 2-3, with a 5.21 ERA and is 1-3, with a 10.42 ERA in his last 4 starts. He lasted 1.1 innings on Saturday at Texas, walking 5 and allowing 6 runs in a 12-4 defeat.

St Louis -1.5 (2.49 @ pinnacle)
Pineiro has been the victim of poor run support, going 1-6 in his last 8 starts despite a 3.29 ERA. The Cardinals didn't score during Pineiro's 7 innings Friday at Cincinnati as he allowed 3 runs but they ended up winning 7-4. Pineiro is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA in 3 starts against Milwaukee.
Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.

Parra is 3-8, with a 7.52 ERA and went 0-4 with a 13.50 ERA in 5 starts before being demoted to the minor leagues.
Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Brewers are 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 6-20 in Parras last 26 starts.
Brewers are 1-6 in Parras last 7 home starts.

Like the look of the Cardinals scoring some runs here against the Brewers especially Parra who has been struggling of late.

July: 21-19 (+8.59)

[sentimentalul]

Sport	MLB
Event	Tampa Bay-Toronto
Selection	Toronto -1,5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 2.42 (Back)
Reasoning	the Statistics says that Roy Halladay is a very good starter, with 2.79 ERA and Whip 1.08.the starter from tampa is David Price, with 5.21 ERA and Whip 1.71.halladay has 10 wins and 2 Losses in position of starter and price 2 W and 3 L.I believe that halladay will demonstrate their superiority, so I bet on toronto with -1,5 AH.

[Tolik]

Sport	MLB
Event	Minnesota - New York Yankees
Selection	New York Yankees
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.97 (Back)
Reasoning	# Yankees are 4-0 in Aceves' last 4 starts. # Yankees are 4-0 in Aceves' last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Sport	MLB
Event	Milwaukee - St. Louis
Selection	St. Louis
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	# Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. # Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. # Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 Thursday games.

Sport	MLB
Event	Chicago Wh.Sox - Cleveland
Selection	Chicago Wh.Sox
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.87 (Back)
Reasoning	# White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite. # White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. # White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. # White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. # White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. # White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. # White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. # White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win. # White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. # White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. # White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. # White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. # White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. # White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. # White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games on grass. # White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 overall. # White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. # White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.

[Tolik]

Sport	MLB
Event	Philadelphia - Cincinnati
Selection	Total Under(10)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.04 (Back)
Reasoning	Head to Head * Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. * Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. * Reds are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings. * Reds are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.

Sport	MLB
Event	New York Mets - Los Angeles Dodgers
Selection	New York Mets
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.47 (Back)
Reasoning	Mets are 13-6 in their last 19 Thursday games. Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Foster behind home plate. Home team is 11-5 in Fosters last 16 games behind home plate.

Sport	MLB
Event	Boston - Kansas City
Selection	Boston
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.52 (Back)
Reasoning	# Red Sox are 4-1 in Pennys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. # Red Sox are 4-1 in Pennys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

[Tolik]

Sport	MLB
Event	Houston - Washington Nationals
Selection	Houston
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.89 (Back)
Reasoning	Astros are 4-1 in Ortizs last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Sport	MLB
Event	Colorado - Atlanta
Selection	Colorado
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.78 (Back)
Reasoning	# Rockies are 7-1 in Cooks last 8 starts with 4 days of rest. # Rockies are 5-1 in Cooks last 6 starts. # Rockies are 5-1 in Cooks last 6 starts on grass.

Sport	MLB
Event	Arizona - Florida
Selection	Florida
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01 (Back)
Reasoning	# Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. # Marlins are 11-3 in their last 14 games on grass. # Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. # Marlins are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. # Marlins are 27-11 in their last 38 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. # Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. # Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a win.

Sport	MLB
Event	Seattle - Texas
Selection	Texas
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.70 (Back)
Reasoning	# Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. # Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. # Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass. # Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 overall. # Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win. # Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. # Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. # Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. # Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. # Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Sport	MLB
Event	San Francisco - San Diego
Selection	San Diego
Strength	10/10
Date	09/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Padres are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Padres are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog.

[blackcrow]

Toronto -1.5
St Louis -1.5

July: 22-20 (+9.08)

Philly -1.5 (2.30 @ pinnacle)
Moyer is 3-0, with a 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off allowing a run and 5 hits over 6.1 innings on Saturday in a 4-1 win over the New York Mets.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Phillies are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 4 of a series.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-1 in Moyers last 5 starts.
Phillies are 9-3 in Moyers last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.

Reds are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.
Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.
Reds are 2-6 in Owings' last 8 road starts.

Reds are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings.
Reds are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.

Atlanta (2.20 @ pinnacle)
Hanson is 4-0, with a 0.90 ERA in his last 5 starts. He left Saturday's start against Washington with a 3-1 lead, but the bullpen allowed 4 runs and the Braves lost 5-3. He gave up 3 hits in 7 innings while striking out 5.
Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 overall and have won their last 2 games on the road.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 5-1 in Hansons last 6 starts
Braves are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings

Texas (2.70 @ pinnacle)
Hunter is 1-1, with a 3.18 ERA and is comign off allowing 1 run and 3 hits in 5.1 innings of a 3-1 win over Tampa Bay on Friday.
Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games
Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Hernandez has lost his last 5 decisions vs the Rangers and is 4-9 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 starts against them.

Rangers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Rangers are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.
Mariners are 0-4 in Hernandezs last 4 starts vs. Rangers.
Mariners are 0-4 in Hernandezs last 4 home starts vs. Rangers.

[LtfcPete]

I'll update my total after tonight, got talked into posting these up by kevshat so blame him if you follow my picks!

BOS to bt. KC -1.5 Runs 10pts 1.83 Ladbrokes *IN-RUNNING*

[LtfcPete]

Couldn't fit in time for any reasoning for the Red Sox bet, apologies..

ATL @ COL Under 9.5 Runs 10pts 1.91 PaddyPower

I've been taking the unders in a lot of rookie's starts this season and it has proved to be a good thing so far. The unfamiliarity of the hitters with the pitcher seems to have a massive advantage in favour of the pitcher, and therefore the unders. None of the Rockies will ever have faced rookie Tommy Hanson before, who has compiled a 1.45 ERA away from home and is holding hitters to a brilliant .205 average this season. In his last 3 starts, he has been outstanding and has recorded a 0.49 ERA. We have seen these streaks by rookies alot this season and it appears to be continuing with Hanson as hitters are seeing him for the first time.

Cook is in All-Star form, he has compiled a 3.98 ERA at home this year and in his last 3 starts has recorded a 1.80 ERA. Cook has won his last 5 decisions and sports a 1.98 ERA in his last six starts overall. He has faced the Braves already once this season, throwing nine innings without allowing a run, holding them to a .129 average. The big right hander relies on his sinkerball as his primary pitch and as a result will induce lots of groundballs. This spells trouble for teams who do not run well as it can result in plenty of double plays. The Braves are one such team, they are the 2nd most immobile team on the basepads, stealing just 29 all season. The last time Cook faced them, he induced 20 groundball outs. The Atlanta team have also had big trouble scoring runs of late, they scored the 4th fewest runs in the whole of baseball for the month of June.

Overall I don't see 10 runs being scored here with these two really in-form pitchers on show.

[LtfcPete]

SF to bt. SD -1.5 Runs 10pts 1.83 WillHill

How can you not go with Lincecum here? He has compiled a 2.23 ERA this season and is holding hitters to an excellent .218 average. The reigning Cy Young Award winner is in dominating form and currently has a 23 inning scoreless streak, that is over 2 and a half full games without allowing a run!! He hasn't even allowed a runner past second base in 18 innings!! The NL Pitcher of the Month for June got off to a great start in July, tossing 7 shutout innings against the Astros on Saturday. He struck out 9 and allowed just 3 hits. He has compiled a 0.36 ERA in his last 3 starts; games in which the Giants are unsurprisingly 3-0. They are 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall and are a much better home team, where they have the most home wins in the NL, going 28-14 and where their ace has a 2.25 ERA.

San Diego, in contrast, are awful away from home, going 12-29 and have the second fewest away wins in the whole of baseball, second only to the awful Nationals. They have lost their last 4 games and 8 of their last 10.. 5 of which have covered the handicap. Crucially for the Giants, the Padres only decent offensive power man has hit just .200 against Lincecum in 30 at bats, 6-for-30 of which none have been homeruns. His brother has also struggled against him, going 0-for-10. The Padres are awful offensively, scoring the fewest runs in the whole of the major leagues and will face a daunting task again tonight. They'll send out Geer who has compiled a 6.55 ERA away from home, where hitters are loving facing him, hitting at .305. The Padres have lost all 8 of his last 8 road starts. There is a 3 run difference between the two pitchers ERAs here, of course in favour of Tim Lincecum and the Giants. The Giants are 7-2 in there last 9 games at home and I think they can pick up another 'W' here against a pretty poor side in the Padres.

[blackcrow]

Philly -1.5
Atlanta
Texas

July: 23-22 (+8.38)