MLB: July 8th picks

[blackcrow]

Houston -1.5 (2.41 @ pinnacle)
Rodriguez is 7-6, with a 3.21 ERA and is coming off limiting San Diego to a run and 7 hits over 7 innings with 5 strikeouts in a 7-2 win on Thursday. He is 2-0, with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3starts.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 4-1 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts.
Astros are 4-1 in Rodriguezs last 5 home starts.

Morton has faced the Astros before but with the Braves as he gave up 6 runs and 8 hits over 6 innings on July 6, 2008, a game Atlanta won 7-6 in 17 innings.
Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Pirates are 18-39 in their last 57 road games.
Pirates are 15-37 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pirates are 22-52 in the last 74 meetings in Houston.
Pirates are 5-13 in the last 18 meetings.

Colorado -1.5 (2.19 @ pinnacle)
De La Rosa has won 5 of his last 6 starts and has a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 games, and allowed 4 hits while striking out 6 and in 8 innings of a 5-0 win over Arizona on Friday.
Rockies are 24-7 in their last 31 overall.
Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 home games
Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosas last 6 starts.

Detwiler is 0-4, with a 5.81 ERA and is comig off allowing 5 runs and 10 hits in 3.1 innings in Washington's 9-8 loss to Atlanta on Friday.
Nationals are 14-39 in their last 53 overall.
Nationals are 11-43 in their last 54 road games.
Nationals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Nationals are 1-8 in Detwilers last 9 starts.
Nationals are 6-18 in the last 24 meetings.
Nationals are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Colorado.

Chicago White Sox -1.5 (2.50 @ pinnacle)
Contreras is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in his last 5 starts as opponents are hitting just .178 against him since he returned to the rotation
In Wednesday's 6-2 victory at Cleveland, Contreras struck out 8 while allowing 2 runs and 5 hits over 8 innings. He is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 13 starts against the Indians, including 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 4 games.
White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
White Sox are 4-0 in Contreras' last 4 starts vs. Indians.

Laffey makes his first start since May 2 at Detroit due to injury and his return has been delayed due to control issues in the minors. He is 0-0, with a 7.27 ERA in two road starts.
Indians are 5-16 in their last 21 overall.
Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
Indians are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Indians are 1-6 in Laffeys last 7 road starts.

Indians are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.
Indians are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.


July: 18-19 (+4.49)

[ReasonableGuy]

Event Detroit - Kansas City
Selection Kansas City (-2.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 2.95 (Back)
Reasoning Royals are 8-2 in Greinkes last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Royals are 13-4 in Greinkes last 17 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Royals are 7-3 in Greinkes last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tigers are 27-56 in their last 83 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
Royals are 6-1 in Greinkes last 7 starts vs. Tigers.
Over is 5-2 in Greinkes last 7 road starts vs. Tigers
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.
Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings.
Detroit score very few runs lately. They scored 8 yesterday, but against a very poor starter Bruce Chen. Greinke did very well this season against Detroit Tigers and asked for respect. He allowed only 4 home runs in 120 innings played. Detroit are a team that gets most runs on home runs and they don't have a high reanking in the standings with most stolen bases. So I will go for Greinke to prove his value once again and keep Detroit batters frustrated. Kansas City on the other hand have good records against left-handed starters, especially in the last 10. I will pick Kansas City to win this with a handicap of -2.5

[ReasonableGuy]

Event Tampa Bay - Toronto Blue Jays
Selection Toronto (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.25 (Back)
Reasoning Rays are 3-8 in Kazmirs last 11 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Rays are 0-5 in Kazmirs last 5 home starts vs. Blue Jays.
Blue Jays are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Tampa Bay.
I want to add that Kazmir don't have many consecutive quality starts and that Brian Tallet is a good starter, and inconstant one but when he plays good he does it for a while and then he blows it. Now he had some blowns and he should make for another good prestation. Tallet lets few home runs so he should be efficient against Tampa Bay. Tampa scores very few runs lately and they won 3-1 in the last match after more than 9 innings. So in 9 innings they scored only 1. They have scored 5 or more in only 2 of the last 10 so they are prone to lose this one in clear manner as their starter is very poor. After a good performance he generally alternates with a very poor one. His ERA 6.7 speaks for itself and he is after a good performance. Toronto to win this with a handicap (-1.5)
The odds are really 3.2. I have made a little mistake here

[ReasonableGuy]

Event Minnesota - NYY
Selection NYY
Strength 10/10
Date 08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 1.77 (Back)
Reasoning I can feel the Yankees on the winning streak here. They have good record in direct meetings against Minnesota and they won the first match in a very categoric manner. Not to mention that they score many lately have very good avg and they score many home runs having lots of power behind the bat. Their avg is better against left-handed starters and Minnesota starter doesn't have many good memories from matches against NYY. Yankees should win this once again as they prove to have a nice form and to build a winning streak on lots of runs scored. Both starters don't have ERA under 3.5 and were overperforming lately so you could expect from both these guys a not so good performance today. I don't think Minnesota will score too many because their offence is not in the best of moods. I see Yankees as scoring more and winning this quite simply.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event LAA - Texas
Selection over 10 runs
Strength 10/10
Date 08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.91 (Back)
Reasoning Over is 8-2-1 in Angels last 11 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 20-6 in Padillas last 26 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 21-7-1 in Padillas last 29 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Both of these 2 teams have very good batting form and both score very many lately. There was only 1 game in which Angels scored less than 5 runs in the last 10 and I have a feeling that they could win tonight. Anyway if they are to do that they must score more than their opponents as they have a poor starter with WHIP 1.9 and 7.43 ERA. And both teams are good in batting against right-handed starters.

[sentimentalul]

Sport	MLB
Event	Detroit-Kansas
Selection	Kansas
Strength	10/10
Date	08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 1.71 (Back)
Reasoning	the Statistics says: # Royals are 6-1 in Greinkes last 7 starts vs.. Tigers. # Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. # Royals are 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 road starts vs.. Tigers. L.French from Detroit has played just book up now, so we can say that has not much experience.I bet on Kansas.

[sentimentalul]

Sport	MLB
Event	Boston-Oakland
Selection	Boston -1,5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	08/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 2.17 (Back)
Reasoning	Tim Wakefield has whip 1.11 and ERA 3.92, while Trevor Cahill has 8.16 ERA and Whip 1.67.the starter from boston is pretty much higher than cahill.more, # The Red Sox are 6-0 in Wakefields last 6 starts during game 3 of the series. # The Red Sox are 6-0 in Wakefields last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. so, I bet on boston with -1,5 AH .

[blackcrow]

Houston -1.5 @ 2.41
Colorado -1.5 @ 2.19
Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ 2.50

July: 21-19 (+8.59)