MLB: July 4th picks

[blackcrow]

Toronto -1.5 (2.29 @ Pinnacle)
Halladay is 10-2, with a 2.56 ERA) and has a 1.91 ERA and 3 complete games in winning his last 6 starts vs New York. He is 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 31 starts, against the Yankees. In his first start since June 12, Halladay gave up 2 runs and 5 hits while striking out 7 in 6 innings as Toronto lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay on Monday night.
Blue Jays are 13-6 in Halladays last 19 road starts.
Blue Jays are 21-7 in Halladays last 28 starts vs. Yankees.
Blue Jays are 10-4 in Halladays last 14 road starts vs. Yankees.

Wang is 1-6, with a 10.06 ERA and is 4-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 9 starts vs Toronto

Boston -1.5 (1.96 @ Pinnacle)
Penny is 6-3, with a 4.79 ERA as he has held opponents to 3 runs or less in 9 of his 11 games. On Sunday at Atlanta, he allowed 6 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings of a 2-1 defeat.
Red Sox are 20-9 in their last 29 overall.
Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Red Sox are 6-1 in Pennys last 7 home starts.

Olson is 3-2, with a 4.81 ERA but has never beaten Boston, going 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in 7 career starts. In those games, he has allowed 10 home runs and 27 walks in 37.1 innings.
Mariners are 6-17 in the last 23 meetings in Boston.

Atlanta -1.5 (2.40 @ Pinnacle)
Hanson is 4-0, with a 2.48 ERA as he limited Boston to 2 hits over 6 shutout innings, on his way to a 2-1 victory. He hasn't allowed a run in 20 innings.
Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Braves are 5-0 in Hansons last 5 starts.

Lannan is 5-5, with a 3.45 ERA and is 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 5 starts against the Braves, including 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 16-35 in Lannans last 51 starts.
Nationals are 6-14 in Lannans last 20 home starts.

Braves are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Minnesota -1.5 (2.89 @ Pinnacle)
Liriano has won his last 2 starts and beat Jackson on May 4 as he pitched 7.1 innings and allowed 2 runs as the Twins won 7-2. With the win, Liriano improved to 3-1 vs Detroit and has a 4.50 ERA in 6 starts. He gave up 2 runs over 7 innings in Sunday's 6-2 win in St. Louis.
Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts.
Twins are 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

Against Minnesota on May 4, Jackson allowed 5 runs over 7 innings and he is to 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in 4 starts vs the Twins.
Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Tigers are 7-15 in the last 22 meetings
Tigers are 27-57 in the last 84 meetings in Minnesota.

Colorado -1.5 (2.06 @ Pinnacle)
Cook is 8-3, with a 3.77 ERA and allowed 1 run and 9 hits in 8 innings of a 3-1 win at Oakland on Sunday. He went 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA last month
Rockies are 22-5 in their last 27 overall.
Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 5-0 in Cooks last 5 starts.

Petit is 0-3, with a 8.03 ERA and comes from the disabled list as has been out with a strained shoulder since his last start on May 8, when he allowed 4 runs and 6 hits in 4 innings of a 5-4 loss to Washington. He allowed 3 runs and 8 hits in 5innings of a 9-6 loss to Colorado on April 21.
Diamondbacks are 8-20 in their last 28 overall.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
Diamondbacks are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Petits last 7 starts.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Petits last 7 road starts

July: 11-7 (+6.82)

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Ny Yankees - Toronto
Selection	Toronto (-2.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 3.15 (Back)
Reasoning	Blue Jays are 45-18 in Halladays last 63 starts vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 36-16 in Halladays last 52 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Blue Jays are 16-7 in Halladays last 23 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Yankees are 1-4 in Wangs last 5 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 2-8 in Wangs last 10 starts as an underdog. Blue Jays are 10-4 in Halladays last 14 road starts vs. Yankees. Blue Jays are 21-7 in Halladays last 28 starts vs. Yankees. Halladay is really a good starter. His WHIP 1.04 and ERA 2.56 qualify him for the best starter in American League. Wang on the other side is kind of a Mister Disaster, with WHIP 2.13 and ERA 10.06 in 36 innings pitched. I expwect for Toronto to break Yankees down. A large handicap. Yankees are , as usual, overrrrrated. In last 5 starts of Halladay for Toronto they won against Yankees with margin of at least 4 runs. Toronto (-2.5)

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Kansas - CHW
Selection	White Sox (-2.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 3.20 (Back)
Reasoning	If you'd calculate Floyd's ERA in the last 8 games only it would be so much better. He is in form pitching well and permitting very few. Kansas batters faded. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in the last 10. Most matches between these 2 teams were won by White Sox in decisive manners. Last game with Greinke pitching, lost 5-0. White Sox batters are really enjoyng their game and Hochevar is an inconstant starter that doesn't have many consecutive quality starts in his lastperformances. 3 runs margin, win White Sox.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Cincinnati - STL
Selection	STL (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.78 (Back)
Reasoning	Cincinnati are favorites because they win at home against STL in most of the matches. But it's not that thing that matters tonight. STL is in better batting form. Their batters are hitting well lately and they are slowly getting back on winning streak. They went through a bad streak of results and now with Thompson in charge they can win this. Cardinals are 5-0 in Thompsons last 5 starts vs. Reds. Handicap, cause Cincinnati were not that strong in scoring runs lately and STL is getting back in their high scoring mood

[Alexgurv]

Early on...im on the white sox and the Yankees

[Wales08]

Blue Jays - Halladay vs Wang......need i say more?

Red Sox -1.5 - Penny been throwing well and the team been scoring well. Home advantage too.

Braves - Hannon 4-0. ERA is respectable. Braves hitters hitting heavy.


Good luck all.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Philadephia -NYM
Selection	under 10 runs
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.96 (Back)
Reasoning	Under is 9-4 in Moyers last 13 starts vs. Mets. Under is 8-1 in Moyers last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 15-6 in Mets last 21 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Mets last 8 vs. National League East. If Nieve resists about 6 or 7 innings and he gives NYM a start with 1 or 2 runs conceded only as he used to do in the last 3 before the last one ) , than this match has all chances to end under. The total set is set too high and Moyers have kept NYM batters under control in the past, so he should do that today too. Phillies are not in that high scoring mood lately. Except for the last game they did normal or below that. Under 5 runs scored in 7 of the last 7 for Phillies. The same for NYM. And with Moyers record against NYM and Nieves good recent performances we should see another under tonight. Under 10 runs.

[Tolik]

Sport	MLB
Event	Cincinnati - St. Louis
Selection	St. Louis(+1.5)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	# Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series. # Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 Saturday games. # Cardinals are 4-0 in Thompsons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. # Cardinals are 4-0 in Thompsons last 4 Saturday starts. # Cardinals are 9-1 in Thompsons last 10 starts vs. National League Central. # Cardinals are 4-1 in Thompsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Texas - Tampa Bay
Selection	TB
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	Rays are 40-18 in their last 58 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 42-17 in their last 59 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rangers are 0-4 in Hollands last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-2 in Rays last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Rangers last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. I expect Texas to score few runs and Tampa way more than that. I pick Tampa because they won most of the meetings against Tampa and scored a lot of runs against them. In Texas, Texas haven't won more than 1 time 2 consecutive times against Tampa and given the circumstances I have presented in the statistics I believe that Tampa is to win here yet again. With a margin of at least 2 if you ask me, because they are facing a very poor starter with ERA 6.2 and have a good enough starter with ERA 3.93 . The score will very probably go over the total set established but I see Tampa as being the ones to score more here, because Texas recorded a lot of unders in the present circumstances in the past so they score few. And Tampa won a lot in the same circumstances as I have presented in the first lines.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Colorado - Arizona
Selection	Arizona (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Rockies are 2-9 in Cooks last 11 starts vs. Diamondbacks. Diamondbacks are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. Diamondbacks are 18-7 in the last 25 meetings. Over is 4-1 in Cooks last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks. Rockies are 10-28 in Cooks last 38 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Arizona beats Colorado constantly so I'll stick with them tonight too, because I believe that they are extremely underrated here. OK, maybe Colorado should be favorites when looking on the aspects of the game, but Cook didn't do too well against Arizona and he is on a 5 quality starts streak. He is not a very good starter and he permitted very few runs lately, but when he does allow more he is beatable. He has got 5 matches in this season with runs average allowed greater than 6. In some of these he's got averages of 9 or even more than 20. He is not that constant so the odds are not justified. Plus, Arizona scores many from time to time and I feel that it's about time for them. Cause they vary the very low scoring games with high scoring ones. Arizona have only one streak of games with under 6 runs scored that is longer than this one. So I wait for them to score some runs and win this one. In matches with many runs expected there is always a chance for a handicap so I'll bet on Arizona (-1.5) 3.8 at PinnacleSports

[ReasonableGuy]

That was all for today. Long friendship with Fortuna to everybody

[blackcrow]

Toronto -1.5
Boston -1.5
Atlanta -1.5
Minnesota -1.5
Colorado -1.5

Dog day

July: 11-12 (+1.82)