MLB: July 3rd picks

[blackcrow]

NY Yankees under 8.5 (2.44 @ pinnacle)
Burnett is 6-4, with a 3.93 ERA and is 4-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. He is coming off allowing 1 single over 7 innings Saturday in a 5-0 win over the Mets.
Under is 27-13-3 in Yankees last 43 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 15-7-2 in Yankees last 24 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 7-2-1 in Burnetts last 10 starts overall.

Tallet is 5-5, with a 4.47 ERA but is 2-2 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 5 road games. He made his first career start against the Yankees on May 14 and allowed 2 runs over 6 innings and did not get a decision in a 3-2 loss.
Under is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
Under is 11-5 in Blue Jays last 16 road games.
Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 7-3 in Tallets last 10 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Tallets last 4 road starts.
Under is 6-2 in Tallets last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.

Boston - Seattle under 8.5 (2.04 @ pinnacle)
Wakefield is 10-3, with a 4.18 ERA and he went 4-0 with a 3.45 ERA in 5 starts in June. He pitched 6 innings to beat Atlanta 1-0 on Saturday. Last year he went 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 starts against Seattle
Under is 13-3-3 in Red Sox last 19 home games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 games following an off day.
Under is 5-1-3 in Red Sox last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Hernandez is 8-3, with a 2.54 ERA and has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 7 starts, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA. On Saturday, he allowed 1 run and 4 hits in 8 innings of a 5-1 win, striking out 9 against the Dodgers. Hernandez is 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 6 starts against the Red Sox, and has thrown 15 shutout innings in winning his two starts at Fenway.
Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-0 in Hernandezs last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.

Kansas - Chicago White Sox under 6.5 (2.41 @ pinnacle)
Greinke is 10-3, with a 1.95 ERA and is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his last 2 starts. He allowed 2 runs and 7 hits in 6.1 innings of a 3-2 win at Pittsburgh on Sunday, and he is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in 3 starts against the White Sox this season.
Under is 10-1-1 in Royals last 12 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 home games.
Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Danks is coming off allowing 4 hits in 7 innings of a 6-0 victory over the Cubs on Sunday. He is 2-2 with a 1.91 ERA in his last 4 starts, and he held Kansas City scoreless in 6 innings of a 2-1 loss on April 9. Danks has a 3.18 ERA vs the Royals this season, and is 1-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 6 starts.
Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 road games.
Under is 14-5-1 in White Sox last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-0 in Danks' last 5 starts overall.

Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings

July: 9-6 (+4.97)

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Kansas City - White Sox
Selection	under 7
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 2.05 (Back)
Reasoning	Under is 24-5 in Greinkes last 29 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 26-8-2 in Royals last 36 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 20-7 in Greinkes last 27 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Royals are 5-1 in Greinkes last 6 home starts vs. White Sox. Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Under is 9-4 in White Sox last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Tonight we are going to watch master Greinke pitching . He is very solid this season and except for 2 weak performances he pitched many innnings keeping the opponent batters frustrated. White Sox haven't score many yesterday, when they should have, cause they faced a poor starter in my opinion. So if Greinke pitches against some not very in shape batters against whom he did pitched well in the past too and Kansas are really not on the scoring side, I expect for this game to be a low scoring one. 5 at most. I shall stake on under 7 to avoid any catastrophy .

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	Colorado - Arizona
Selection	Aizona (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Diamondbacks are 5-2 in Scherzers last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. National League West. Rockies are 2-5 in De La Rosas last 7 starts as a favorite. Diamondbacks are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Colorado. Diamondbacks are 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Colorado. Most matches in the history of meetings were won by Arizona with a margin of 2 goals exactly and some of them were won with more than that. Few matches won by Arizona were won at exactly 1 run margin. Colorados starter is poor. He's got an ERA of 5.64 and when he blows it he is very permissive. Scherzer has a 3.67 ERA and the team won a lot on his back. Low scoring affair and a margin of 2 runs for Arizona.

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	LA Angels - Baltimore
Selection	over 11 runs
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 2.40 (Back)
Reasoning	Over is 15-5-1 in Orioles last 21 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Santanas last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 12-4-1 in Angels last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Over is 40-17-2 in Orioles last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Orioles are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings. I believe that Angels are to win this and in the way they play at the moment the score will get high. Both starters are very poor with high ERA 7.5 for Santana and high OBP around .400 both of them. And both of these teams have power hitters. Hitting average is high and Angels look like scoring more than 5. Baltimore also score many after scoring around 2 in the previous and Santana is a generous starter. I'm not so sure on Angels win but I'll go for the over 10, as I can see

[ReasonableGuy]

Event	San Diego - LA Dodgers
Selection	Dodgers
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Dodgers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Dodgers are 4-1 in Kurodas last 5 starts vs. Padres. Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Dodgers are 4-1 in Kurodas last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Dodgers are a solid team and they haven't enjoyed the best of forms lately. They score around 5 or 7 runs normally and win lots of matches. I think that against San Diego they have a chance to get back on winning streak. San Diegos starter is inconstant and their batters are bellow Dodgers value.

[FinLandiaFish]

NY Yankees (Burnett) - Toronto Bluejays (Tallet)

blackcrow already stated the important pitchers stats and imo Yankees have the upper hand with Burnett, his been especially sharp of late coming of a 7IP 0ER performance against the Mets. Tallet on the other hand has shown nothing special, although being stable on road, just don't see him doing so well with his BB rate against strong Yanks bats in an extra hitter friendly park. NY got their 7 game winning streak cut in their last game and I reccon there is no reason for them to get back on the winning saddle, home park, friday night... Also the Bluejay bats are struggling badly of late, which ofcourse could benefit from this ballpark, but probably not enough to beat the homeside.

NY Yankees (-1.5) @2.10

Gl everyone

[Tolik]

Sport	MLB
Event	New York Yankees - Toronto
Selection	New York Yankees
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.56 (Back)
Reasoning	# Yankees are 4-0 in Burnetts last 4 starts as a favorite. # Yankees are 5-1 in Burnetts last 6 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. # Yankees are 4-1 in Burnetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. # Yankees are 4-1 in Burnetts last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Sport	MLB
Event	Chicago Cubs - Milwaukee
Selection	Chicago Cubs
Strength	10/10
Date	03/07/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.60 (Back)
Reasoning	# Cubs are 12-3 in Zambranos last 15 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. # Cubs are 4-1 in Zambranos last 5 home starts. # Cubs are 4-1 in Zambranos last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. # Cubs are 4-1 in Zambranos last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. # Cubs are 4-1 in Zambranos last 5 starts as a home favorite. # Cubs are 12-3 in Zambranos last 15 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.

[FinLandiaFish]

Yankees win 4-2 Thanks goes to A-Rod after his solo homer in bottom 8th, so someone might call this one a lucky one but seems to me that recently they all are lucky ones (still winners) Yanks bats were totally pathetic today, for example bases loaded no outs situation resulted in no runs at all.

On a side note had a bet on atleast one run scored in 6th inning of the Cubs game (live)... Millwaukee had two on and no outs -> Zambrano magically got his first two K's and in the bottom half Cubs got on base due to error (no outs) and ofcourse followed was a DP. So no runs there with bad luck evening up my books

Grats on the unders @Bronx guys

[blackcrow]

Originally Posted by FinLandiaFish

Yankees win 4-2 Thanks goes to A-Rod after his solo homer in bottom 8th, so someone might call this one a lucky one but seems to me that recently they all are lucky ones (still winners) Yanks bats were totally pathetic today, for example bases loaded no outs situation resulted in no runs at all.

On a side note had a bet on atleast one run scored in 6th inning of the Cubs game (live)... Millwaukee had two on and no outs -> Zambrano magically got his first two K's and in the bottom half Cubs got on base due to error (no outs) and ofcourse followed was a DP. So no runs there with bad luck evening up my books

Grats on the unders @Bronx guys

Always good for everyone to be a winner - nice to see you around again FF, remember you from last year and hopefully more winning picks to come from you

[FinLandiaFish]

Washington Nationals (Detwiler) - Atlanta Braves (Kawakami)

Both pitchers are piss poor (pardon my language), Detwiler with 5.24ERA and Kawakami with 4.25ERA. Both of them have big control issues, giving away too many walks and with the teams hitting okey (yes, even the Nationals) atm vs these pitchers it should be a runfest tonight. And although C.Jones and A.Dunn haven't been themselves lately they have a big chance on capitalising on these bowlers, if nothing else than walks Also Washington bullpen should continue to slump.

Over 9.5 runs @ 1.90


GL everyone

E: Also it's good to keep in mind that Kawakami has been injured (neck) for a while so his surely not 100% fit

Grats on Cubs Tolik ! Bases full walk in bottom of 10th always gets the blood flowing

E2: 5-5 score in bottom of the 5th inning. Couldn't ask for an easier/relaxing night game. Calls for a banana dance. dance banana dance!

[blackcrow]

NY Yankees under 8.5 (2.44 @ pinnacle)
Boston - Seattle under 8.5 (2.04 @ pinnacle)
Kansas - Chicago White Sox under 6.5 (2.41 @ pinnacle)

July: 11-7 (+6.82)