College Football: Week 11

[blackcrow]

West Virginia -17.5

Big game for WVU as they look to maintain their 2nd spot in the Big East. Both teams have two of the best offences in the nation with Louisville who focus on the pass while WVU focus on the rush. If you look on the defensive side of things, WVU's defence has improved significantly to be rated in the top 10 while Louisville has really struggled to contain the pass and the rush. Look to Louisville only get about half their usual 500 yards per game as WVU's defensive really lifts fore this prime time game. However Louisville will not be able to contain the running of Hill and Slaton, and they also tend to leak quite a few points via the pass.

[vitalyo]

365 odds
My best bet !!!

10 Nov 19:15 / UK 10 Nov 14:15
Virginia + 3.5 @ Miami - 3.5
Miami - 3.5 1.90



Here is why!

Before we get to the stats .Read this news letter.

President Donna Shalala, co-signed by Hurricanes head coach Randy Shannon, just sent this message to alumni who were planning on taking a piece of the OB home with them after the final tilt on November 10th:

To the University Community:

On Saturday, November 10, the University of Miami will conclude a glorious chapter in its history when our Hurricanes take on the University of Virginia in the final game to be played in the Orange Bowl. It will be a day to be remembered, as we gather together for the last time in the stadium that has been the site of UM home football games for the past 70 years—a place where fans have enjoyed some of the greatest moments in collegiate football history.

We hope you’ll join us for the game, which will be broadcast on national television and will feature an exciting halftime show as well as other special activities to mark the historic occasion. We are counting on all our fans to make the University proud in front of millions of viewers by displaying the highest level of spirit, sportsmanship, and decorum. We certainly don’t want to leave the Orange Bowl on a down note.

We raise this matter because it has come to our attention that some fans wish to rush the field at the end of the game—a move that would have serious consequences indeed. Security will be in full force, with at least 300 City of Miami law enforcement officers assigned to the field at the conclusion of the game. They plan to arrest any fans who rush the field or vandalize the stadium in an attempt to secure a memento.

The University will also enforce its own disciplinary code, and any UM students who rush the field may face major discipline charges. Please note that ACC rules clearly prohibit rushing the field at any time, and FIU is scheduled to play three more games at the Orange Bowl after November 10.

We are confident that all our fans will appreciate a great game experience that is enjoyable and safe and that maintains the integrity of the stadium and field. The Orange Bowl has earned a classy goodbye from our team and our fans. We look forward to seeing you there and your support as we begin a new exciting chapter of Hurricanes football next season at Dolphin Stadium.

Go ‘Canes!

Donna E. Shalala
Randy Shannon

Virginia's ability to win close games has it atop the ACC Coastal Division standings and back in the Top 25.

The No. 23 Cavaliers look to remain in both positions Saturday night as they try to spoil Miami's final home game at the Orange Bowl.

Oddsmakers from Bodog have made Miami -3.5 point spread favorites for Saturday's game . Current public betting information shows that 70% of bets for this game have been placed on Virginia +3.5

Virginia (8-2, 5-1) beat then-No. 21 Wake Forest 17-16 at home last Saturday to bounce back from a 29-24 loss at North Carolina State on Oct. 27, which dropped the Cavaliers out of the poll from the No. 21 spot.

Each of Virginia's last three wins have been by one point, and the team is 5-0 this season in contests decided by two points or fewer. The Cavaliers have set a single-season NCAA record for victories by a margin of two or fewer, surpassing Columbia, which had four such wins in 1971.

"I don't have to explain," Virginia defensive end Chris Long said. "We'll take 'em."

Last Saturday's victory gave Virginia a one-half game lead over No. 11 Virginia Tech in the division. After facing Miami, Virginia has a bye before hosting the Hokies on Nov. 24, which could be for a spot in the ACC championship game.

It's quite a turnaround for Virginia, which finished 5-7 in 2006.

Miami (5-4, 2-3) has been unable to pull off a similar reversal following its 7-6 season in 2006. The Hurricanes enter their 468th and final game at the Orange Bowl looking to avoid losing three straight there for the first time since 1996.

Miami, which is 318-142-7 in 71 years at the Orange Bowl, will begin playing at Dolphin Stadium next season. Among the former Hurricanes greats expected to attend Saturday are Bernie Kosar, Michael Irvin and Gino Torretta.

"The future's the future, the past is the past, and I enjoyed it. It was great," current Miami coach and former player Randy Shannon said in August when the announcement was made. "But I look forward to other challenges that were presented to us as a university and we think it's going to be a great situation."

The Hurricanes won three national championship games at the Orange Bowl, and had an NCAA-record 58-game home winning streak from 1985 through 1994.

Virginia lost its only trip to the Orange Bowl, 25-17 in 2005, but got its first win in four all-time meetings against the Hurricanes with a 17-7 victory last season.

Most of the Cavaliers' games lately have been a lot closer.

Running back Mikell Simpson scored the game-winning touchdown on a 1-yard run with 2:18 to play last Saturday. He also had one with 16 seconds left in an 18-17 victory at Maryland on Oct. 20.

Chris Gould's 19-yard field goal with 3:20 remaining was the difference in a 17-16 non-conference win over Connecticut on Oct. 13.

"For some reason, we click at the end," Virginia tight end Tom Santi said. "We've got the confidence that we've done it before, so when we get those situations, nobody's panicked."

While a defense which allows 19.2 points per game is a big reason the Cavaliers have kept games close, the play of sophomore quarterback Jameel Sewell also has keyed the narrow victories.

Sewell is a combined 17-for-20 for 199 yards on the final drive of the Cavaliers' last four victories. Virginia's only loss in its last eight games came when Sewell missed the second half of the fourth quarter at North Carolina State with cramps.

"He plays hard the whole game, but in those last couple minutes, he brings it," said Virginia receiver Maurice Covington of Sewell, who has thrown for 1,689 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. "He brings the intensity and he keeps everybody in the game."

Sewell was 23-for-33 for 217 yards and rushed for two scores in Virginia's win over Miami last year.

Virginia again won't have leading rusher Cedric Peerman on Saturday, and he could miss the rest of the season as he remains sidelined with a right foot injury suffered early in the Oct. 6 game versus Middle Tennessee.

Despite rushing for a season-high 314 yards, Miami lost 19-16 to North Carolina State in overtime last Saturday.

"It is definitely tough," said Daren Daly, who made three field goals, but missed on the first possession of overtime to send Miami to its third loss in four games. "All we can do now is focus on Virginia."

The Hurricanes, who are tied for third in the Coastal, need one win to become bowl eligible.

Miami expects to have quarterback Kyle Wright back after he missed last Saturday's loss with a sprained ankle. The only pass his replacement, Kirby Freeman, completed in 14 attempts went for an 84-yard touchdown.




My other pick :

8 Nov 19:48 / UK 8 Nov 14:48

Louisville +17.0 @ West Virginia -17.0

Louisville +17.0 1.90

Louisville (5-4, 2-2) which ranks sixth in the nation in passing yardage is 12-4 ATS last 16 as an underdog. No.6 West Virginia (7-1, 2-1) which ranks sixth in the nation in rushing yardage is 3-5 ATS last eight home games. Teams have split past two meetings each winning at home, Louisville 44-34 last season, WVU 46-44 in triple OT the previous season.

This is way too many points!!!


GL.

[blackcrow]

West Virginia -17.5

[vitalyo]

West Virginia +17.0

Louisville 31 : West Virginia 38

On of us had to win.LOL

GL.

[TazaD]

Among the former Hurricanes greats expected to attend Saturday are Bernie Kosar, Michael Irvin and Gino Torretta.

Who now?!

[blackcrow]

East Michigan over 58

Bowling Green's defence gives up a collective 430 yards and an average of 33 points which EMU should able to make the most of. EMU's defence laso gives up 418 yards and about 29 in points. While both offences are reasonable they should be bale to make the post of a pretty poor defence on both sides

Rutgers -20.5

How is Army going to stop Rice and the rushing attack of Rutgers. They will pound and keep pounding. Army's rush defence is one of the worst in the nation. On the other side, Army has virtually a non existant rush offence and a average pass offence. Rutgers should be able to control the ball on both sides to win this quite comfortably, if it goes true to form

[blackcrow]

East Michigan over 58

Rutgers -20.5

[blackcrow]

Michigan -3.5
Michigan need to win this game to set it up for next weeks Big Ten title show down with Ohio State. They have won 7 of the last 8 clashes against Wisconsin, including a 27-13 victory at home last year and with the Badgers having several injuries especially to their star RB, then Michigan looks a good chance here.

Michigan is 11-2 ATS vs. conference opponents while Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Michigan is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.

[blackcrow]

Michigan -3.5

[blackcrow]

Miami over 41.5
While both teams have good rush defences it is their pass defence that is a little suspect. Both teams will look to air the ball which should create a lot of scoring opportunities offensively and defensively via turnovers. Both teams average scoring about 21 points and both teams average conceding about 21 so over is a good possibility

South Carolina over 58.5
Both defences in this game are really struggling and each team has the offence to capitalise on this. Florida scored 41.3 pg in last three games and their last four games all went over total. South Carolina gave up 581 rushing yards in loss at Arkansas last week and now have Tebow and Harvin to contend with while for South Carolina, McFadden ran for 321 yards last week

Kansas -6.5
Despite being ranked 4th questions are still beng raisedabout Kansas eevn though they have the 2nd highest scoring team to go along with the 2nd rated scoring defense, the 2nd best turnover margin and the best kickoff return unit. They're also in the top 10 in rush defense, pass efficiency defense, total offense and total defense. They are away to Ok State who can pass and run but have yet to meet a defence of this calibre. Kansas proved last week they can score at will and with Ok State having such a very poor pass defence, this should be a shootout but one that Kansas wins by at least a TD

Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win.
Kansas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

USC -5.5
Return of Booty at QB for USC gives them a decisive edge especially as Longshore for California has his share of problems. USC has a very good rush defence and a pretty good pass defence as well while California have an average pass defence

USC beat California in the last three years (23-17/35-10/23-9) and the Trojans are 3-1 on the road.

USC is 21-0 in November games under head coach Peter Carroll.
USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against a winning team.
Cal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog.
Cal is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Boston College -6.5
Look to BC to make up for their poor showing last week with a win against a Maryland side missing several of their offensive line. BC have one of the best rush defence units in the nation and should be able to restrict Maryland's running, setting it up for the blitz quite regularly becuase they do have a bit of a problem defending the pass. BC should be able to get their way on both parts of the offence especially if Ryan wants to get back inthe reckoning for the Heisman Trophy

BC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss.
Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games.
Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 conference games

[blackcrow]

Miami over 41.5
South Carolina over 58.5
Kansas -6.5
USC -5.5
Boston College -6.5

Nice way to finish the day off after getting hammered early (not posted)

[gazzyg]

Originally Posted by vitalyo

365 odds
My best bet !!!

10 Nov 19:15 / UK 10 Nov 14:15
Virginia + 3.5 @ Miami - 3.5
Miami - 3.5 1.90

That's gotta be the worst 'best' bet I've ever seen on here
Miami 0 - Virginia 48
Doh if they'd only scored 7 more touchdowns and a late field goal we'd have got it. Must have all gone out and got pissed at a stadium farewell party the night before.
Well played sir, let's hope we can recoup on NFL later