$10k in a month

[AJ]

A guy is betting others that he can clear over $10k net profit over the next month, just by playing $27 turbo SnGs on Stars

Apparently it's never been done before, I don't fancy his chances, daily updates here for a bit of interest

http://www.sitandgochallenge.com/

[Dodger]

Getting bogged down with the Maths on this one but, using rough figures, I see it like this:

1st=112.50, 2nd=67.50, 3rd=45.00

If he averages 1-2-3-unplaced in every 4 games, this will give him 225-108 profit, which is 107 or just less than 27 per game.
Do you count the fee in ROI???
Anyway, I think this gives him an ROI of 100%...108 to profit 107 every 4 games.
But he has to maintain this over 370 games in 31 days to hit his target of 10,000 profit. (370 x 27 = 9990)
Any bad run will greatly increase the number of games.
I don't think this can be done.
But good luck to him anyway...it'll be interesting to follow his progress.

[GotaFancy?]

Yes, fee has to be counted in ROI.

He will "only" be 12 tabling - to start off with.

100% ROI is absolutely and totally unachievable. 10% is being talked about as unachievable too. likely ROI is between 5% and 6% by the looks of it. They're $27+$2.70 games? 6% ROI would be $1.77 profit per game. 5% would be $1.475. With these figures he will need to play between 5500 and 7000 odd games. Something between 180 and 220 per day.

He's playing turbo's, but they're quite slow (for turbos) on stars aren't they? Average of 30 mins per game? (including losing games).

that's approx 200 x 30 mins = 100 table hours per day..... Assuming he's always 12 tabling that's about 8 and a half hours per day....

I would guess that when pushing it, he COULD play for double that in a day.....

It's a test of endurance, but I think it's achievable .....

Think he's starting at 3pm ish today? US time I presume? That'll be about 8pm GMT (v EST) - might be worth watching him for a bit to see how he plays - must be reasonably "automated" in his approach.....

[GotaFancy?]

As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are....

User mkgringo
Games Played 5,629
Average Stake $23
Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated)
Total Profit $8,131

[Dodger]

That's why I've gone wrong here...I can't handle 3 games at once without my brain hitting meltdown...so I was looking at the challenge from my own perspective which makes it absolutely impossible.
If he can handle 12 tables at once for such a sustained period then he must have some amazing brain control going on there.
Anyway, good luck to him for taking this on in the first place.

[robilaruk]

Originally Posted by Dodger

If he can handle 12 tables at once for such a sustained period then he must have some amazing brain control going on there.
Anyway, good luck to him for taking this on in the first place.

essentially you fold everything for the 1st 3 levels except AA KK QQ

and then you shove ATC with position from then on

simple but brutal

Damo
ps its obviously a bit more involved than the above but hopefully you get the general picture

[GotaFancy?]

I see he's currently on 11 tables

[AJ]

final count he's taken just a shade over $10k on himself at 1.5 to do this.

Big balls is all I can say

[GotaFancy?]

I dunno - I assume he's got the game to do it - then it's just a question of endurance/commitment - it's enough games to move beyond variance being a major concern...

$20,000 for 1 month playing poker non stop - that can be pretty motrivating

1.5 - What is that? American Odds? Would we know it as 6-4? So he is risking just over $6000 odd to win $10,000?

[stereoman]

Yeah 1.5/1 is 6/4. 2+2 must be having a field day at deriding his attempts...so they are.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...gonew=1#UNREAD
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...gonew=1#UNREAD

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are....

User mkgringo
Games Played 5,629
Average Stake $23
Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated)
Total Profit $8,131

Latest
Games Played 5,748
Total Profit $7,753


Net
119 Played
$378 down

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

Latest
Games Played 5,748
Total Profit $7,753


Net
119 Played
$378 down

One standard deviation over 119 games would be around $400. For a 5%-6%
ROI over 119 games, he'd be around $150 up. So $378 down is actually only
just over one standard deviation below where he'd expect to be.
Disappointing, but not devastating.

[Mr Intensity]

Really don't think he's going to do it. As GaF pointed out he's 'only' played 5629 on Stars so he's going to have to double that in a month (not sure how long those 5629 took). Also the mental stamina need is huge - at least 8 hours a day 12 tabling must really fry your brain. I suppose the amount of cash on the line will be a big motivator - say he's up $5K after 25 days then he'd probably put in some 18 hour days. I'd imagine some of the people who have action against him will start filling up the $27 games if it gets close.

He should have done this at another site and would get some pretty decent rakeback

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are....

User mkgringo
Games Played 5,629
Average Stake $23
Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated)
Total Profit $8,131

Latest from Sharkscope

Played: 262
Profit: ($32)

He's pulled it back a bit.....

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are....

User mkgringo
Games Played 5,629
Average Stake $23
Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated)
Total Profit $8,131

He's slipped again
Played 369
Profit ($317)

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

As a "baseline" - his current stats on sharkscope are....

User mkgringo
Games Played 5,629
Average Stake $23
Average ROI 6% (pretty meaningless number the way it's calculated)
Total Profit $8,131

He seems to be in profit again (these are just the sharkscope stats - believe he played some games at the wrong stakes, which wont count)

Played: 476
Profit: $34

I know it's not statistically proven or anything yet, but I am now starting to think he wont do it ..... not because I think the challenge is too much - I'm sure there are players who can do it, but this guy just doesn't seem a consistent enough winner

I forgot to change from FullTilt to Stars with my first search, and assuming it's him, Played 416, Average Stake $24, Total LOSS $850......

[AJ]

agreed, he's not got the game, and has put himself under too much pressure.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

He seems to be in profit again (these are just the sharkscope stats - believe he played some games at the wrong stakes, which wont count)

Played: 476
Profit: $34

I know it's not statistically proven or anything yet, but I am now starting to think he wont do it ..... not because I think the challenge is too much - I'm sure there are players who can do it, but this guy just doesn't seem a consistent enough winner

I don't think there's enough evidence yet. He's only around 0.75 standard
deviations below a 6% ROI on those figures.

[LetsWinBaby]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...6#Post12550448

Spacegravy managed 25k at the 60's so i think its definetly possible, whether this guy has the skill/patience/time im not so sure.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP)

it's enough games to move beyond variance being a major concern...

Actually, I don't think it is.

If he plays enough games that he would average $10k profit at a 6% ROI,
then the standard deviation in his profit is around $3500, which is still quite
large. It's not terribly unlikely that he'd only manage a 3% ROI over that
period, even if he were really a "6% player".