Your Play - WSOP Super Sat Bubble

[GotaFancy?]

This months "Your Call" in Poker Player Mag is posing a very similar problem to those Damo has been posing recently, (Just a more severe bubble, being a Sat) so thought it would be worth putting up here for views - we get "the answer" in a month....If you send your answer to pokerplayer at dennis dot co dot uk, then you also have a chance of winning a chip set (I've sent an answer in, I'll put it up here in a bit)

You are Perry Friedman.

Originally Posted by PokerPlayer

The Situation

Super Satellite to WSOP.
The following hand occured in a WSOP super satellite a few years ago. There were 3 seats up for grabs and 4 players left. We were in a very strange situation where one guy had almost all the chips. The chip stacks were as follows:
Button - big stack with over 90% of the chips
SB - me with 800
BB - 1300
UTG - 400
The blinds are 400/800. UTG calls all in for his last 400. The button folds and I have K-J suited. Should I call or fold?

[Hands Solo]

Out of curiosity, do I have 800 in chips before posting the SB, or after posting the SB?

[GotaFancy?]

You have 800 before posting the small blind - if you fold the hand, you have 400 left

[slick mick]

Didn't read properly posted dumb statement

[Hands Solo]

My poker knowledge is well....ummm, limited But my two cents:

I assume If the BB wins the hand (and I call), I win the seat as I started with more chips and so I can win the seat if either myself or the BB wins the hand. If UTG wins the hand, then I play for a sidepot against the BB. The only way I am eliminated is if I lose both the main and side pots. With KJ suited I would presume I am ahead of at least one player, and if I am ahead of both then it's harder for the flop to help both players catch up. If UTG wins main and I win the side pot only, then I still have more chips than I would by folding. The only way I lose is if I lose to both players, and by calling in this situation, I feel I am reducing the chances of UTG winning significantly, with the insurance of knowing I have the side pot as 'insurance'. It would seem unlikely that the BB beats my hand but UTG beats the BB's hand. I don't really have any idea about the percentages here...in fact I don't have much of an idea at all, but that's what I'd do, and that's my logic for dong so

[slapdash]

First thoughts ...

As Crouch Potato says, if BB beats UTG, then it doesn't matter what you do,
as UTG goes out in 4th place. So you may as well assume that UTG is
going to beat BB (or at least split the pot, but let's ignore that possibility).

So if you fold, the stack sizes after the hand will be

lots ... 400 (you) ... 900 ... 1200

If you call and come last, you're out (we're assuming UTG beats BB,
remember).

If you call and come first, you win a seat.

If you call and come second, the stack sizes will be

lots ... 800 (you) ... 500 ... 1200.

The fact that we can assume UTG beats BB means that BB's average
hand is worse than it would be with no information, which is a small point
in favour of calling.

But I still haven't made my mind up.

[GotaFancy?]

This is what I sent off

I fold

Why?

This is all about survival to the last 3. Third equals second equals first. With 4 players left, and 3 desperately short stacked, success is all about maximising the number of turns that you can last (and to a lesser degree, minimising the number of turns your opponents can last). The situation is key and the cards are secondary .... it can easily be correct to fold AA or call an all in with 23o....

So what's the situation here?

If I call all in, then we are 3 handed, going to a showdown.
1) If my hand or the BB hand is better than the UTG, then I have won my seat. Game over :-)
2) If UTG wins, but my hand is better than BB then I survive. UTG will have 1200, I have 800, BB has 500. In future hands, UTG has to post a SB and BB (1200 - his stack) before I have to post a blind. I will have to post my BB (800 - My stack) before BB has to post anything. It's anyone's!!
3) If UTG AND BB both have better hands than me, then I am out and have bubbled. Game Over :-(

The cards are secondary, but not irrelevent. So what do I believe UTG could be holding? He is UTG, meaning that he posts the BB next hand. This usually would imply he only has a hand that is above average. However in this situation I believe a little more strength is implied - because he has less than one BB, he knows he will go to showdown. He also knows that I am in dire straights - I have to post a SB of 400, leaving me with 400 and a 3-1 choice of calling for my tournament if I am up against just the BB. It would be tough for me to lay down with any above average cards, knowing that if the UTG wins his forced all in showdown on the BB in the next hand, I am the next one who is all in!!! UTG therefore has a pretty reasonable holding, probably better than my KJs!! (maybe a pair, maybe a high Ace). The BB has 2 random cards and his BB covers the 2 potential all ins. Chances of winning the showdown 3 way? Maybe 45% for UTG, 35% for me and 20% for BB. So punch these numbers into the above scenarios.....
1) 61% - I win my seat
2) 17% - then a 67% chance of winning a seat - Cannot seperate the chances of the 3 players - all have a 33% chance of not winning the seat
3) 22% (37% BB beats me and 60% UTG beats me) - I lose the seat
If I call, I estimate my chances of winning a seat to be (61%*1)+(17%*.67)+(22%*0) = 72%

If I fold, then we have an immediate showdown between BB and UTG. If BB wins I have my seat. I estimate the likelyhood of the BB's random hand beating the qute strong hand of UTG to be about 35%. I am 35% to win my seat straight away.
If UTG wins (which I estimate to have a 65% probability) then the situation next hand is:
Button (me) - 400 Chips
SB - 900
BB - 1200
UTG - Big stack with 90% of chips
Unfortuantely The big stack has looked like he's just going to keep out of it and leave us to fight amongst ourselves. He doesn't need to get involved and is choosing not to. Whilst the BB has to pay his stack in the next 2 hands in blinds, if the Big Stack does not get involved, there is a very strong possibility he will have a walk on his BB. Neither I nor the player acting after me have any fold equity against him, so will fold unless we have decent cards. This would leave me needing to survive my BB with a random hand against probably 2 opponents. I think I am now a small favourite to miss out on the seat. Probably 40% (with other two maybe 30% each). However that means that I still have a 60% or so chance of a seat!!
So the overall chances of the seat if I fold are (35%*1)+(65%*60%)=74%

So in summary, my best estimates are that if I fold, I have a 74% chance of winning a seat, if I call, I have a 72% chance of winning the seat. There is little difference between the decision to call or fold though in reality - but I believe folding gives me a marginally better chance.

Now, I just need to wait for Slapdash to point out all the errors in my maths

[Valiant23]

Okay I'm doing this without reading any others views.

Because Big stack has 90% of the chips in effect we have a 3 handed game with 2 paid.

SB - me with 800
BB - 1300
UTG - 400

Once blinds are paid;

UTG-400
SB-400
BB-500

Pot-1200

Now UTG will obviously be blinded out in the next hand and could be pushing with absolutely anything. I have a total of 1/2 a BB after paying my ante.

If I stay out the hand BB will still have 100 chips AFTER paying his SB next hand and therefore can afford to risk me being blinded out. On that basis I would have to call.

[goater14]

I sent my reply back last week and said I would call.
But even if your wrong goatafancy I would give you the prize anyway with that detailed an answer, its like a formula for a quantum physics question in a A level exam!

[msaban]

I fold, for all the exact reasons posted by GAF

Seriously, I still fold. UTG has probably got a card with paint on it or a pair.He can only win your SB plus half the BB, giving him 1200, but then will have to pay the blinds in the next two hands.you may get a bettwe hand before you have to put chips in. Also the BB will automatically call, and may ave a better hand or suck out.Why risk it.

KJ is a hand I have gone out of a tourney several times, its a nice looking hand but worth nothing if you dont hit.

I fold

I would ring Gazblades and ask him to play for me

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

This is what I sent off

In the June issue, Friedman says he called, and gives the prize to somebody
who agrees. They both give the main argument in favour of calling, which is
that you can't get knocked out unless the short stack wins and the BB comes
second, but neither of them does the kind of detailed calculation you did.

I'm pretty sure your basic conclusion that it's extremely close was correct.

I think you wuz robbed!

[GotaFancy?]

Ooops - haven't read it yet - completely forgot - cheers

[CJB]

UTG is basically in a position where he has to get lucky and can't fold his way to a seat. He has to do something so the correct call for him is to go all in with any two cards and hope to quadruple up. If he quadruples up he can sit out the next three hands on BB and SB and button and still have chips. He has to assume that the button with the stack he has will call. UTG has to make something happen. He is unfortunate that the button folds.
I therefore disagree with the theory that UTG automatically has a premium hand. He could have but he could also have any two cards.
On that basis KJ suited could be the best hand. I think the correct decision is to call as has been stated just winning one pot would leave more chips than folding.

[robilaruk]

I would swear first of all and wonder why the big stack had not called, in fact if I was the big stack I would be AI every hand

I would then fold (assuming I still have 800 chips after posting the sb), all that will happen is the UTG will play the BB and either win 1200 chips or be out.

If he wins he pays the BB next hand and is back to where he was, playing any 2 random cards and hoping to hit

super sat play is all about survival in this situation

Damo

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

This months "Your Call" in Poker Player Mag is posing a very similar problem to those Damo has been posing recently, (Just a more severe bubble, being a Sat) so thought it would be worth putting up here for views - we get "the answer" in a month....If you send your answer to pokerplayer at dennis dot co dot uk, then you also have a chance of winning a chip set (I've sent an answer in, I'll put it up here in a bit)

You are Perry Friedman.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by robilaruk

I would then fold (assuming I still have 800 chips after posting the sb)

800 chips is before posting the 400 SB. You'll be left with 400 chips if you
fold.

[goater14]

The strange thing with this is the big blind mucked his hand to no bet!
Which gave Friedman a freeroll in the hand as he would get his $800 back if he lost the hand. as it turned out the player utg made a royal flush and the player in the big blind was the one to miss out on a seat!

[robilaruk]

so If i call and beat the BB I still have 800 chips even is UTG wins as I win the side pot

so UTG would have 1200, me 800 and BB 500 - and BB is now SB with 400 to pay and UTG BB with 800 to pay

or I fold I have 400, BB (now the SB 500) and UTG 1200 if he wins - or BB wins and I get my seat.

However If I fold and the current BB plays the next hand correctly - i.e. fold and leave himself 100 chips, I will be at risk when the BB gets to me, assuming UTG makes it through his BB without the monster stack shoving AI, in which case he folds his SB to the monster and hopes I get fcuk'd on my BB, or if I get lucky the guy with only 100 left gets fcuk'd on his BB/SB


hmmmmmmmmm doing my head in now


it would be easier if we knew what the monster stack was doing (apart from folding ) if he is super tight and folds every hand or so, then I would call as you cannot rely on him to play the game and bust one of us, if the fold was an abberation I would errrr dunno.............. (probably still fold)

this is a fantastic question

EDIT::
Have thought about this:

I would fold and be happy about it - the BB might bust UTG and either way they are still at risk when the blinds move around - so i can't see how my position can be any worse than it is at the minute, coz I could lose the the BB and UTG beat the BB and I am out!

Damo

Originally Posted by slapdash

800 chips is before posting the 400 SB. You'll be left with 400 chips if you
fold.

[GotaFancy?]

Cant understand the BB fold Cant possibly be right under any circumstances can it? Anyone think of any good reason for his fold?

[CJB]

I suppose to keep the short stacks very short. They only have 2500 chips between them. Why "donate" an extra 800. He can't put pressure on them anymore (or at this stage anyway.) He doesn't have to play this hand or the next by which time he may be through.
Only thing I can think of.