value of a flush draw

[AJ]

played a live 45 player mtt last night, bubbled in 9th which was disapointing.

Been thinkng a lot about the hand I went out on, feedback welcome.

Had been playing tight all night, top 4 Slansky groups mostly.

Blinds 300 / 600, I have about 3k in chips so m is low. I'm on the small blind here.

Get Qc 3c, only 1 caller, so I complete the small blind (I'd fold to more callers), BB checks.

Flop Ac Kc As

So I'm drawing to the nut flush.

I push, BB folds, other caller (the huge stack) calls and tells me I'm beat. He turns over a red ace for trip aces.

Spades come out turn and river, and I'm out.

I'm not 100% sure what my percentages were here, I think I had 9 outs, so my chance over two cards was 36%, with just us, and the 600 chips from the big blind in, I don't think I quite had pot odds.

Feedback, should I have folded preflop, or tried to limp post flop. Pretty sure he'd have slow played his aces, all the way to river to try and get my to raise so he could rerasie

[Fader]

Im not sure id of made the move because any caller has got 2 pair minimum, or 3ofakind and even if you hit your flush you have the chance of the full house if the board pairs again on the turn or river.

if you'd of checked, he may of checked for a free card, which would make it easier to lay down also

[GotaFancy?]

It's a little more dangerous than just a nut flush draw, because it's a paired board and because it's Aces - there's a fair chance that someone has an Ace rag, so this removes some of your outs (which would make a FH for your opponent)....

Having said that - I make the same move as you - the immediate pot odds may not be there for your draw, BUT you do have some fold equity!!! Add this fold equity into the equation and for me it was a positive ev play....

[Jaded]

I'd have ditched pre-flop personally - if you've got an M of just over 3, and you're in the small blind, then I'd say you were better off shoving the first playable hand you got which no one was in, rather than limp at the cost of about 10% of your stack.

Post-flop play would be the same as yours, though, despite the danger of a full house... as GaF says, the fold equity makes it an okay play.

[GotaFancy?]

Yep I forgot to say that - raise (all in) or fold pre flop, but dont call!!!!

[Masterplan]

fold pf there for me too

[robilaruk]

I agree with comments above - I would have prefered to fold PF and shove any 2 next hand if its folded to me on the button rather than limp with such a weak hand

however as you did limp call - i too would have shoved that flop - you have a monster draw so lets take advantage of it

Damo

[Valiant23]

I think AJ made the right pre-flop play personally. He has to put 300 chips into a pot of 1,200 and he has enough good sense to know what he was playing those cards for (a flush and a pay-off I assume).

It still leaves him 2,400 chips, and the 300 won't make that much difference when he is making his position shoves after this hand.

However I wouldn't have chucked my chips in on that board.

If AJ had checked, and BB checked then the big stack may have been overconfident of his trip aces and given you another card.

If he did and you hit then you can shove, but if he either makes you pay or the flush doen't hit then you realise your chance of hitting the flush has diminshed and pass and play the waiting game.

[GotaFancy?]

Sounds a very passive gameplan to me Mr V What are the chances of getting 4 cards for your 300 AND getting a completed flush? Not good - you're just chucking your 300 away and have not got anywhere near implied odds to play like that

In a strange way .... foolsgold ... er ... I mean AJ says "so I complete the small blind (I'd fold to more callers)," - but that logic is backwards for me ...... if you are drawing, you only get the odds if there are multiple limpers - the more limpers the better .... if you hit, you want someone else to have something to pay you off with ....... My view would be more along the lines of "fold" to one limper but "call" 4 limpers (I don't know that's what I'd do - it's just to illustrate my point...)

[Valiant23]

Well it may seem passive but then again so are the cards.

The truth is AJ had Ace high when he pushed and is going to get called by the other caller which is why I would have followed this course of action.

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by Valiant23

The truth is AJ had Ace high when he pushed and is going to get called by the other caller which is why I would have followed this course of action.

Sorry - I'm going to keep disagreeing

He had a flush draw which had a 2-1 shot of completing before the showdown ...... that's worth far more than A High (it was actually a pair of Aces on the board)

He is only going to get called if his opponent has an A or a K, otherwise his opponent is probably folding!!!! Fools has put in a significantly larger than pot sized bet - not insignificant!!!!

Even if he does get called by an A or a K, he still has a not insignificant chance of winning the showdown.....

[GotaFancy?]

Question for you Mr V ...... you want to limp now with Q3s, play it passively and bet if you hit ........

Would you do the same early in a tournament? Say stacks of 1500 ... blinds 25/50, you're on the small blind, one limper before you - do you make up the Small Blind now?

I presume not ...... your odds are the same, and your implied odds are significantly larger - why would you do it later in the tournament, but not early? (assuming you wont)

[mrmuzeman]

In a strange way .... foolsgold ... er ... I mean AJ says "so I complete the small blind (I'd fold to more callers)," - but that logic is backwards for me ...... if you are drawing, you only get the odds if there are multiple limpers - the more limpers the better .... if you hit, you want someone else to have something to pay you off with ....... My view would be more along the lines of "fold" to one limper but "call" 4 limpers (I don't know that's what I'd do - it's just to illustrate my point...)

If the flop brings a Q that could easily be good against just 2 others, less likely to be so against more players, would be all I would say in the defence there.

Id fold preflop personally but its not like some horror error to complete either I dont think and see if you can flop a Q or flush draw (or obviously bigger than this though thats very unlikely). I think perhaps the fact you were on the bubble would definitely lead me more towards a fold though.

As played, with 1.8k in the ze pot and around 3k stack remaining its definitely an all in situation that is called for. With this flush draw and small stack you definitely have to play this hand through no question and if you check here, it is very likely one of them will bet imo and then youll have to go all in over the top and they will never fold for the small amount more it will be. You take away all your fold equity by checking and not going all in.

I would estimate that the 2 players would fold at least half the time there to your all in bet. Your all in bet looks like you have the flush draw or the King to me. So therefore without an A or K or flush draw themselves they will fold which will be a fair wedge of the time and you win a lovely uncontested pot.

[Valiant23]

As regards pushing on the flush draw I have heard it often said that it's the right play but it doesn't sit well with me. Whether thats a leak in my game or not I don't know.

However.

Would you do the same early in a tournament? Say stacks of 1500 ... blinds 25/50, you're on the small blind, one limper before you - do you make up the Small Blind now?

Well the obvious answer is no, but then again why ask me how I play in an early stage of a tournament to prove a point about the late stages of a tournament?

My point is that this isn't the worst combination of hole cards to take a small chance on when the reward would probably save your tournment life.

[Valiant23]

Just had exactly the same situation as AJ in the Safety Net (although not on the bubble).

I had q5 clubs on BB

4 callers no raise.
flop;

2c, 7c, Ad

Mid position puts in a pot sized bet and I call all in (after I checked). He turns over AK and no improvement for either sumps me out.

I checked because I was going to play it my way then changed my mind.

If I had played it my way I'd have still been in....

[mrmuzeman]

Mid position puts in a pot sized bet and I call all in (after I checked).

if youre going to call an all in with this sort of hand you really are 100% better just moving all in yourself. No 2 ways about it.

If I had played it my way I'd have still been in....

If youd moved all in first to act you might have hit your flush and doubled up cos the betting actions change the random card generator so

[AJ]

thanks for the feedback, I know I was behind when I pushed, I correctly put him on an ace. I'd not been getting cards all night, it took a lot of work to reach the bubble. For me it was double up or go home, I figured better to go out with an agressive play, that might strengthn my table image for next week, than fold and be blinded out.

I play with these guys every week, (sometimes twice), I've cashed 80% of the time. So this was in my mind as well

[Valiant23]

If youd moved all in first to act you might have hit your flush and doubled up cos the betting actions change the random card generator so

Now are you winding me up MrM?

[mrmuzeman]

Now I would never do that now would I.

Moral of the tale? Q rag sucks even if it is sooooted

[Jannieb]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Now I would never do that now would I.

Moral of the tale? Q rag sucks even if it is sooooted

I must say i agree might be lowstacked but you have just paid BB so why not wait for a better starthand.