STT - Bubble time with less than one BB - general strategy

[robilaruk]

inspired by my appalling play detailed here
Pop Quiz (part XVI) - call or fold

I find myself in the following situation - its bubble time in a 10 seat STT

Seat 1: Bandito (1420.00)
Seat 5: kugli11 (2820.00)
Seat 7: LizziePL (390.00)
Seat 8: malypetrik (10370.00

the blinds are 200/400 and I pay the SB leaving me 190, so I have less than one BB left (Maly is on the BB)

reads: it has been tight, apart from Maly we all had a similar chip count and there has been quite a bit of folding.

Maly has no idea how to play the big stack, rather than bullying and taking all our blinds, he keeps folding, then once every 6/7 hand he shoves, which results in 3 folds

Kugli has been the tightest of all, and let himself blind down from over 4K to less than 2K before deciding to play

Bandito has taken a few chances, has shoved a couple of times on the button after Maly folds, and called Maly's SB shove with J9o to double up when he had around 1200 chips - he is the loosest of us all

Me: have been folding my SB to Mal's BB and picking up my BB about every other hand or so for the last half a dozen orbits to keep my chips fairly healthy. I played back once to Maly's shove on my BB with A8 to double up to about 3K - since then I have been folding and waiting for one of the other 2 to bust out before me (well Bandito actually, as he is the only one who wants to gamble)


so how should I play this with less than one BB left?

a) its folded to me, do I insta-call and hope to win against Maly in the BB, or just fold and hope one of them busts out before the BB come back to me?

b) its raised AI by Bandito, Kuglis folds, do I call and hope to triple up, or fold and hope Maly calls as its only another 1K to him out of 10K

c) its raised to 600 by Kugli - do I call or fold knowing that Maly might call as its only another 400 and I am up against 2 players seeing a flop?

d) Kugli shoves - do I call and hope Maly folds as the amount is (probably) enough to get him to do so?


you may have noticed I haven't mentioned my cards - are they relevant or do I call with any 2?

Just wondering if we can come up with a decent strategy to play with less than 1BB

cheers

Damo

[daftpegasus]

I think your cards are relevant, but to a lesser degree. I would look at it from the other players points of view.

Kuglis has no reason to attack Maly's BB unless he has a premium hand. And with your read as a tight player any bet from him at this stage must be respected.

Bandito must know that a shove here is very likely to get called (only another 1K from Maly) and therefore risks him going out on the bubble. As the looser player he may well take that risk with a lesser hand, but I would only expect him to take that risk with a decent hand.

If they both fold (a) then I'd almost certainly take my chances with any 2 cards.

Options (b, c & d) would be determined by the cards I held.

[GotaFancy?]

In the "dead zone" as Harrington puts it!!!

If your 2 opponents both fold before you, then you have to call, regardless of your cards. That's easy.

I think if either of them are all in, I call .... it doesn't sound like I can trust Maly to do what we know he should do.....

If both are in the pot before me, I probably fold (unless I'm VERY strong).

If one limps and one folds I probably reluctantly call.

As you say, cards are of little importance now ..... the situation is the driver.

From 190 chips I think my chances of cashing are limited - so I need a very clear sign that someone is about to go out to consider losing my 200 small blind without a fight.....

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BBP)

As you say, cards are of little importance now ..... the situation is the driver.

In a sense your cards are more important now than they would be if you were
short-stacked but still had some fold equity ... if you call, it will go to a
showdown, which you have to win, and which is down to your cards.

The sense in which they are of little importance is that the odds you get with
half your chips already in the pot may be so good that however much the
particular cards change your EV, it's always right to call. I agree that in
scenario (a) it's probably right to call whatever you have.

I'm wondering if your tournament EV might increase so much when you do
have some fold equity that it's worth taking some risks to get out of the
"dead zone", such as calling in a multiway pot and hoping to triple up?

[robilaruk]

thanks for the replies so far - in the actual example, it went fold fold and as I sat and thought about it, the blinds went up to 300/600, which puts more pressure on Bandito

what would folks do now? still call?

for those who are interested I had 10 9 off again!

Damo

[Jimany]

Instant call - no matter what your cards

9-10 is a perfectly decent hand to call with, you aint gonna do anything with 1/3BB left. I cant believe Kugli hasnt called though. In this situation, with any average hand, if i have more than 5BB i will call and check it down with the BB as you have to play this hand or you're effectively out. Poker is a team effort

But anyway you have to call, there's no other option here.

[pinkpanther]

Easy answer. You have to call with any two (unless something crazy happens and the other two go all in before you). Firstly you are getting the odds to call. Secondly you are the small stack and need to make a move - you cant wait for others to knock themselves out.
Finally if you fold you are giving yourself a small chance of making 3rd but almost no chance of 2nd or 1st. With190 chips you could double up twice and still be a poor fourth where as if you double up with 395 twice you could have 1600 and a real chance of getting a higher finish. In short it is better to go out with a bang than a wimper.

[Valiant23]

Originally Posted by robilaruk

thanks for the replies so far - in the actual example, it went fold fold and as I sat and thought about it, the blinds went up to 300/600, which puts more pressure on Bandito

what would folks do now? still call?

for those who are interested I had 10 9 off again!

Damo

Yes, absolutely.

[Jimany]

How did the end of the SnG play out?