Stt advice

[staffy]

I know this question has been asked before but I am interested what people now think a good ROI is for Stt's. I not asking what your roi is but what would be acceptable.

the first level I want to talk about would be $5 stt's with 9 players basically on stars.

I have not been taking my poker that seriously recently and just been playing around with stt's on stars. Tried $1 $5 and $10 games to see the difference in standard.

Therefore if you started with $100 and you wanted to double it how many games should it take?

[AJ]

Acceptable ? Greater than zero.

Anything above 10% over the medium term would be impressive

[staffy]

OK so whats your medium term mean. 100 games or 500 games or more?

[AJ]

personaly I have a fairly good idea if I can beat a level after 50 games. My ROI at the $10+1s on Stars hasn't moved much since it stablised at 12% after 100 games

[staffy]

OK cheers AJ ill waut see what othyers think.

[slapdash]

I think it depends very much on the level and on what you consider "acceptable". If you're playing $500 STTs and can sustain much over a +5% ROI then you're probably a prodigy. If you're playing $1 STTs then I'd believe you could sustain a +25% ROI. I probably average a $15 buy-in with a little below +10% ROI, and I'm fairly happy with that.

I think people tend to vastly underestimate how many games you have to play to get a good idea of your ROI, though. In a typical STT, if you're an "average" player (i.e., you're equally likely to finish 1st, 2nd, ..., 9th, (10th)), then the standard deviation of your ROI over 50 STTs (roughly speaking, this is the typical amount it will vary through random variation) is about 24%. In other words, if you're a +10% player in the long run then it wouldn't be unusual to have a -14% or +34% ROI over 50 games.

The standard deviation will vary a bit according to how good you are and your style (people who tend either to crash out early or come first will have a higher standard deviation; people who very often get into the money but don't get many first places will tend to have a smaller standard deviation), but it's not going to vary very much.

If I were judging purely on the basis of my results, I'd want a +10% ROI over more than 1000 games before I'd be reasonably confident of being a winning player.

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by slapdash

I think people tend to vastly underestimate how many games you have to play to get a good idea of your ROI, though. In a typical STT, if you're an "average" player (i.e., you're equally likely to finish 1st, 2nd, ..., 9th, (10th)), then the standard deviation of your ROI over 50 STTs (roughly speaking, this is the typical amount it will vary through random variation) is about 24%. In other words, if you're a +10% player in the long run then it wouldn't be unusual to have a -14% or +34% ROI over 50 games.

In case this sounds rather extreme, imagine you're playing 10-seater STTs with a 50/30/20 payout. Imagine that once in 50 games you lose a coin-flip on the bubble and go out in 4th place, whereas if you'd won the coinflip you'd have been a big chip leader and would have come first or second for an average payout of four buy-ins.

Then that one coinflip makes a difference of 8% to your ROI over 50 games, and I'm sure we all get involved in many more than one crucial race in the course of 50 STTs.

[staffy]

I think your right with one thing slap that you cant judge yourself unless you have played around 1000 games. Otherwise each game can still make a biggish difference to your roi. I would imagine you need to be able to lose 10 games in a row without it affecting your roi too much for the reading to be accurate.

For me it seems 10% seems to be the magic figure. But any + would be good in some circs. However if your winning 10% at $5 but only 1% at $10 game should you just play $5 or aim to improve at $10 games.

[morlspin]

Staffy, aim for 30%

if your playing 1/5/10 dollar stts and your return is +12% your not realling making anything, due to the time youve spent playing, the electric, the nagging

Yes a profit is a profit, but at that ROI your only playing to fill in time.

I aim for a win in every 4 games in a 9/10 max table
I aim for a win in every 3 games in a 6 max table

[voiceofjoe]

Theres an Interview in Inside Poker this week with 'Elky' and Dario Minieri and they say in the article that anyhting higher than a 5% ROI is really good - albeith that is at $500 STT's

[staffy]

I think 30% is very high morls and too high for me. I dont and never have really played to win loads of money but also dont want to lose.