To Steal Or Not To Steal

[dudeman99]

I would like some advice with the following hand just played please. As far as I can figure I was roughly 60% to win the hand, and if you can get keep getting evens at that probability you're laughing!

Background:

20 or so hands into a freeroll. 10 player table but about 6 zombies so just four active players largely competing over blinds. This fact has been recognised and people are loosening their starting hand requirements. I reckon I have an image of a TAG player, but again looking to open up my range and be more aggressive. I am chip leader.

Sorry I can't find a way to get text HH from anywhere, so I'll have to describe the best I can.

Hand:
Late position, one off the button
Dealt to me: Jc 8h

6 players fold.
I raise to 2xBB
BB calls. (He is second chip leader, aggressive but I have noticed some donky plays from him.)

Flop 7d 8s 3s

He checks.
I go all in. (I have top pair, no overcards on board, figure he would have reraised with JJ+. Happy to take my chances with stealing the blinds or a coin toss and am favourite to double up.)

He calls.

Him Js 10s

Turn 10c
River Kc

Donk wins by donkily chasing a flush draw but donkily hits on the turn anyway.


How could I have played it better? Obviously going all in was not the best move and the thought that someone could call an all-in when chasing a flush draw never occurred to me!

[SteveO]

Can't really comment Dude without the chipsizes and size of the blinds etc. Nothing wrong with his call he has a gutshot draw and flush draw that's 12 outs which gives him a 48% chance of winning (roughly even money) but in this situation he actually had any 10 to hit as well which gave him another 3 outs.

On the flop although he didn't actually know, he had 15 outs which made him a 60% fav to win the hand. The gutshot and flush draw alone was more than enough for him to call your allin.

[dudeman99]

Too right Steve, didn't see the potential straight.

With his outs I can see that I was not as well off as I thought.

My original intention was to fold if nothing hit on the flop. An all-in was too big, should have just made a c-bet then folded to any aggression

[GotaFancy?]

Make sure you get Pokerstove for checking odds - it's free

Which site are you playing on? Most should have hand history's without any problem - they really are essential to give all the relevent information - you'll find that most of the time people post hands without the hand histories (from the regulars anyway) they're just trying to hide information to imply a bad beat

[betking1]

Yeah....definitely use Pokerstove software....I have done well out of it....I have found it has actually improved my game a little.....

Hope this helps

[AJ]

Originally Posted by Steve'O

Can't really comment Dude without the chipsizes and size of the blinds etc. Nothing wrong with his call he has a gutshot draw and flush draw that's 12 outs which gives him a 48% chance of winning (roughly even money) but in this situation he actually had any 10 to hit as well which gave him another 3 outs.

On the flop although he didn't actually know, he had 15 outs which made him a 60% fav to win the hand. The gutshot and flush draw alone was more than enough for him to call your allin.

Yeah, it'd be an insta call for me in a freeroll as well, not point trying to limp for a place.

In a cash game, I'd have folded to your bet.

The problem I have is you're going to be miles behind to a call. top pair with an 8 and a jack kicker is jsut so open to being drawn out on.

The all in is far too much, this is a mistake i used to make, what I do now is judge what'll take to get him to fold. in this case a pot sized bet would have been enough, this way you can get away from it.

His check should make you slightly suspicious on the flop anyway.