Pop Quiz (part XVI) - call or fold

[robilaruk]

10 seater STT - bubble time!

I have 2K left after posting the BB (ignore the 2400)- Kugli has been ultra tight on the bubble for ages - he had about 4K at one point and has folded hand after hand after hand - he made a raise against Maly on the button last orbit, Maly called and shove a rag flop - so Kug folded

Maly has no idea how to play the massive stack - he generally folds every hand and then shoves about 1 in 6 or so - so i think he is only playing fairly decent cards

Bandito plays a bit and is prepared to call his BB with a marginal hand

So do I fold, keep my 2K and hope Bandito or Kugli get busted next orbit - or do I call as I am getting 3-1 for my cash?

Cheers

Damo


Seat 1: Bandito (1420.00)
Seat 5: kugli11 (810.00)
Seat 7: LizziePL (2400.00)
Seat 8: malypetrik (10370.00)
kugli11 post SB 200.00
LizziePL post BB 400.00
** Deal **
Bandito [N/A, N/A]
kugli11 [N/A, N/A]
LizziePL [3s, 8h]
malypetrik [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
malypetrik Fold
Bandito Fold
kugli11 All-in 810.00

[McG]

Well, for what it's worth, here's my two pennorth.

I'd call - you'll still have more than bandito and the small stack, even if you lose, and a win puts you in good position to secure 2nd. That said, they are terrible cards, but the ATC (any two cards) rule surely comes in to play here, and the rewards are good enough.

McG
N.B - If I suggest call, the correct option is almost certainly to fold.

[Valiant23]

When is level up?

Its something I consider because if you call and lose just as the blinds are going up then you have given Kugli a life jacket, but if you fold and blinds go up soon he is still drowning.

Plus another good reason for folding is by doing so you'll leave yourself an extra 400 chips which may be useful for folding equity.

Despite the tone of this post I did vote call though.

Have to say that its a coin flip, really as in truth I would probably call 50% and fold 50%.

[robilaruk]

tut-tut, fence sitter......




level up? - we are about half way through the current level - does that make a difference?


Damo
ps - EXCELLENT question about the level up - that one has never been asked before

Originally Posted by Valiant23

Have to say that its a coin flip, really as in truth I would probably call 50% and fold 50%.

[robilaruk]

if I call and lose I have 1590 and Kug has 1620 - bandito 1420 - so it is very close

and I on on the SB next hand - with the massive stack on the BB

does this make a difference?

Damo

Originally Posted by It's McG

Well, for what it's worth, here's my two pennorth.

I'd call - you'll still have more than bandito and the small stack, even if you lose, and a win puts you in good position to secure 2nd. That said, they are terrible cards, but the ATC (any two cards) rule surely comes in to play here, and the rewards are good enough.

McG
N.B - If I suggest call, the correct option is almost certainly to fold.

[Valiant23]

Originally Posted by robilaruk

tut-tut, fence sitter......




level up? - we are about half way through the current level - does that make a difference?


Damo
ps - EXCELLENT question about the level up - that one has never been asked before

It makes a difference because the next level is likely to be 300/600 which means;

a) You don't call but time waste in order to let the clock keep them under pressure which would mean that

Seat 1: Bandito (1420.00)
Seat 5: kugli11 (1410.00)
Seat 7: LizziePL (2000.00)
Seat 8: malypetrik (10370.00)

and by the time you've suffered the SB you may lose that as well BUT if the shorties want to push they have to go against maly. Then the next 2 hands you have position on them and (hopefully) get something slightly better than 83os.

Level up would cripple the other 2 shorter stacks BEFORE you and therefore you may well see rash play which could knock one of them out.

P.S. I haven't figured out scenario (b) yet

[GotaFancy?]

Easy call for me - 83o is 37.5% against a random hand, which is pretty much what kugli has.....

[robilaruk]

thanks for the responses - usually i would insta-call as I was getting 3-1 for my cash (as you know from my previous pop quizzes) however, I sat and thought about it and decided to fold - I just didn't want to double up Kug and leave myself crippled (I lose, drop to 1600, then pay the SB, so I now have 1400 etc). He is on the BB in 3 hands time and 'loses' the BB he stole from me - plus Bandito had been gambling, so there is a chnce for him to bust out - otherwise it just gets folded to the BB most hands.

I would have called if I had around 3K in chips rather than 2K

Anyway I will post a follow up to this........ (my play gets worse BTW)

Damo

[robilaruk]

this is exactly one orbit later - Kug now min raises - so what should I do?

Call (see a flop and then decide?)
Fold (and let him steal my BB again?)
Shove (and hope he folds?)

Cheers

Damo


Seat 1: Bandito (1420.00)
Seat 5: kugli11 (1410.00)
Seat 7: LizziePL (1800.00)
Seat 8: malypetrik (10370.00)
kugli11 post SB 200.00
LizziePL post BB 400.00
** Deal **

LizziePL [10s, 9h]


*** Bet Round 1 ***
malypetrik Fold
Bandito Fold
kugli11 Raise to 800.00

[happyhornet]

I can't see him folding to your raise as he only has 610 left and odds to call. I would call for 400, and if you get a bit of the flop, go all in. If he bets the flop and you have nothing you can get away and still have 1000 chips.

[Tweetypie05]

Probably fold here.

Don't like the T9o enough to risk tournament life.
He may be pushing but if no T/9 comes and he bets you have to fold as you can't push him off and then you've just lost half you stack.

I would wait until BB is on Bullit or back on Kugli and push then!
Mind you I'm cr*p at STTs!

[GotaFancy?]

Easy fold for me - you have no fold equity and I'm not risking my tournament with T9o - lets face it, I dont expect to be favourite!!!

[robilaruk]

y'see I told you it got worse - I just shoved believing him to be stealing with something crap like 75 etc and he showed KK

no suck out for me and I now have 390 chips left and the SB to pay....


think I have lost the ability to play STT's - been focussing on cash too much

Damo

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by robilaruk

think I have lost the ability to play STT's - been focussing on cash too much

Ouch ... KK very much the worst case scenario!!! But 75, your best case scenario wouldn't have seen you that far ahead - About 65:35!!! Bit of romantic idealism I think to expect two undercards

Not sure it would be profitable play anywhere - STT, MTT or Cash!!!!!