Laying down AA first hand

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Ell Ess Dee

201376 enumerated boards

cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose
Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415__30.00
9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62

Where's that from?

Are those real-life hands where there's betting after the flop? If so, AA will
do less well, as it might fold when it was actually going to win. But that's
not relevant if you're all in.

[Ell Ess Dee]

http://www.pokertips.org/simulator/simulator.php

All in heads up pre flop with 16 random dead cards not inc Aces..

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Ell Ess Dee

http://www.pokertips.org/simulator/simulator.php

All in heads up pre flop with 16 random dead cards not inc Aces..

Without putting in any dead cards it gave me 77.22% for the aces.

How do you do random dead cards?

And why no aces in the dead cards?

I'd have thought having no aces in the dead cards would increase the
chances of the AA.

[Ell Ess Dee]

If you have no dead cards, then you are TRULY heads up, were on about MTT, so assuming its ten seated table. 8 people are going to chuck 16 cards away.. Random cards I just made up, you just whack em in as normal..

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Ell Ess Dee

If you have no dead cards, then you are TRULY heads up, were on about MTT, so assuming its ten seated table. 8 people are going to chuck 16 cards away.. Random cards I just made up, you just whack em in as normal..

But if the dead cards are random, it makes no difference whether you include
them or not. Of course, they won't be totally random, as they are cards that
people chose to fold, but I'd doubt it would make much difference. Are you
sure the 16 cards you typed in weren't cards that wouldn't help the 98: on
average, 16 random cards from the remaining 48 would include one 8 and one 9?

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by Ell Ess Dee

201376 enumerated boards

cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose
Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415___30.00
9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62

"Only" 200k hands - there are 1.7m? Does that account for the differences? I have it as 22.623% equity.....

1,712,304 games 0.063 secs 27,179,428 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.377% 77.22% 00.15% 1322321 2607.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 22.623% 22.47% 00.15% 384768 2607.50 { 9s8s }

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

"Only" 200k hands - there are 1.7m? Does that account for the differences?

If the hands are random, 200k should be plenty. It should get the percentages
right to within about 0.2% virtually all the time.

[Ell Ess Dee]

Where you get yours from??

[Fader]

wouldn't expect anything less from you really

Why is it a stupid question?
Have you really thought about it? (or is it because you have just gone out of the Betfair freeroll with AA )

and lastly please dont call me geez

erm? whats your problem? i said IMO its a stupid question - lets face it no1 will of paid for their entry and gone all in with "any 2 cards" so your basically looking at a pair j up, or AK - yeah id be right in there folding my aces.

and yes, it is because i went out with AA :p but i still wouldnt fold it, as i said before what better situation do you want in terms of odds GEEZ

why you have taken it so personally, and then took a swipe at me i dont know? thats what youd expect from me? erm sorry do you KNOW ME?

fader

[mrmuzeman]

If your playing sound poker you shouldnt fold it 100% call. I have only scanned the thread but no 'pro' player would fold either (people seemed to think they might for some reason).

Let the good times roll people, youll be shipping it most of the time.

[mrmuzeman]

Said it before, I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip

Wtf

[Paulie_D]

Originally Posted by MCFC66

My question was....

'If you had bought into a major tournament (say the main event) and you got dealt AA first hand, you raise 5 or 6 BB's and 1 person goes all in, everyone else has folded, its just you and him what would you do?'

Let's not forget that the 'random' hand issue isn't a factor in this particular instance.

The other guy has ALSO gone All-in first hand after you raised him a significant amount. Unless he's a complete muppet he's only gonna have one of two hands....KK or AA.

Actually, I think he's a muppet if he has less than AA but that's another issue!

So, you're either in front to KK or drawing even on AA. Either way, barring a RRRR straight or flush, you're probably safe. If it's KK and he hits his 5%(?) so be it.

My SB worth....Call!

[WASP]

Originally Posted by Fader

erm? whats your problem? i said IMO its a stupid question - lets face it no1 will of paid for their entry and gone all in with "any 2 cards" so your basically looking at a pair j up, or AK - yeah id be right in there folding my aces.

and yes, it is because i went out with AA :p but i still wouldnt fold it, as i said before what better situation do you want in terms of odds GEEZ

why you have taken it so personally, and then took a swipe at me i dont know? thats what youd expect from me? erm sorry do you KNOW ME?

fader

Compose yourself darling no need to get obtuse. You have obviously stumbled across a thread that needs a higher level of thinking and you can be forgiven for that.

[Adetrick]

I've no doubt that the right thing to do is to call - but, I've also no doubt that under this set of circumstances my balls would shrink to the size of peanuts and I'd fold and then regret it for the 10 minutes I'm still in the tourney.

[Fader]

Compose yourself darling no need to get obtuse. You have obviously stumbled across a thread that needs a higher level of thinking and you can be forgiven for that.

is talking shit your way of going AROUND the question?

[robilaruk]

handbags folks?

lets keep an otherwise very interesting thread on the staright and narrow please?

Am enjoying the thoughts back and forth on this one

Damo

[jones12345]

me 2 what a great response

[mrmuzeman]

Originally Posted by Adetrick

I've no doubt that the right thing to do is to call - but, I've also no doubt that under this set of circumstances my balls would shrink to the size of peanuts and I'd fold and then regret it for the 10 minutes I'm still in the tourney.

That response sums up the feeling of anyone who would fold imo. Youre basically just feared out about it getting cracked and thats influencing your decision. The last part just confirms it when 'im still in the tourny' is mentioned, a very nice proportion of the time you will still be in the tourny by calling too remember!

I cant see any rational explanation for a fold. It seems to be along the lines of 'I want to get value for my money' or 'I dont want to play for just 1 hand' etc etc. Does it not occur that 80% of the time (lets say opponent has a pocket pair) you will get a lot more likely playing time by calling as you will win and have a huge stack?

[Valiant23]

When MCFC asked the question originally I thought he was on a wind up and my answer was almost immediately call.

I still think I would call, but I can appreciate some of the arguments for folding especially if it was in the WSoP M.E. as people would rather experience the atmosphere for more than a couple of minutes.

However if your dealt AA and call the all in quick enough you could argue that you had led the WSoP, even if only for a brief moment.

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by Paulie_D

So, you're either in front to KK or drawing even on AA. Either way, barring a RRRR straight or flush, you're probably safe. If it's KK and he hits his 5%(?) so be it.

You LPM'ers dont know your odds very well do you?

KK v AA would be 5% (assuming 2 outs) with one card to come .....

Here it is pre flop, so we are talking 20% for the KK to win the hand (sometimes a K will fall, but the A will also hit ..... KK can win with straights and flushes too ....) - The AA will lose 1 time in 5, which is quite high!! The Aces winning certainly arent a given, buy you're getting not far off even money for an 80% shot.....