Laying down AA first hand

[robilaruk]

ay??

forgive me if this sounds harsh - but that just seems bonkers to me

you are a 80/20 fav against another pair (give or take)

and not much more against 2 random cards 82-88% or so

so how is it a coin flip and how is it mathematically probable of him matching his cards the same as you?

if he has an underpair he has only two cards to match which definately beat you, which leaves you with the other 47 which win it for you (assuming a HU game) - he has to hit an improve, you don't need to, so even tho you have only two cards that make you a set, you don't need to hit to win

Damo




[quote=gazabroad;723714]Put him on ANY pair, and although I´m favourite with top pair..........

5 cards turnover, and he has the same chance mathematically of matching his cards as I do.

[Jaded]

I think you're crazy if you fold, unless you REALLY want the experience of playing a few extra hands. You are a MASSIVE favourite to double up here, and if you're not willing to get your money in as something like an 80:20 favourite, when are you?

Taking the 'not wanting to crash out first hand' to its logical extreme, surely you'd be better off folding EVERY hands so that you could be guaranteed to stay in for a fair while?

[Fader]

stupid question imo

if you aint happy getting all your money in with AA, what better odds do you want geez

[WASP]

Originally Posted by Fader

stupid question imo

if you aint happy getting all your money in with AA, what better odds do you want geez

wouldn't expect anything less from you really

Why is it a stupid question?
Have you really thought about it? (or is it because you have just gone out of the Betfair freeroll with AA )

and lastly please dont call me geez

[Reg_Kray]

I can`t believe any pro would fold. This Fischmann feller sounds a right tool if he does.
And if you double up first hand then you can be table bully, or sit back and wait for the good spots knowing the blinds aint affecting you for ages

[GotaFancy?]

I would expect most Pro's to fold ...... they value the equity value of their $10,000 buy in, with so many poorer players to be in the region of $60,000 ...... an 80% shot at $20,000 is less than the value of $60,000 they perceive that they have if they fold.....

If your edge is that great, then I think you would be correct to fold .....

[Pocket Lady]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

I would expect most Pro's to fold ...... they value the equity value of their $10,000 buy in, with so many poorer players to be in the region of $60,000 ...... an 80% shot at $20,000 is less than the value of $60,000 they perceive that they have if they fold.....

If your edge is that great, then I think you would be correct to fold .....

Does this mean that I play likje a pro?

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by Pocket Lady

Does this mean that I play likje a pro?

I refuse to answer the question on the grounds it may incriminate me!!

[McG]

Only just got home and seen this thread - what a belter!!

As most of you know, I'd be in like a shot. I'd even be there if I hadn't made the original raise and there were 3 or more players to act after me.

As we all know, on average I'll get those beauties 1 in 221 hands, and often lose when it goes to the flop aginst 3 or more hands (is there anything worse than the dreaded Q 8 4 flop, not knowing where you are?).

Being of below average ability, I'd take this every time UNLESS (and here's where the wuzz in me comes out) it's close to bubble time or final table. The thought of missing out after 3 days' play would be too big a risk.

Hope that's not too much of a contradiction - good banter though.

McG

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

I would expect most Pro's to fold ...... they value the equity value of their $10,000 buy in, with so many poorer players to be in the region of $60,000 ...... an 80% shot at $20,000 is less than the value of $60,000 they perceive that they have if they fold.....

If your edge is that great, then I think you would be correct to fold .....

Don't think this is quite the right calculation, as the equity value of $20,000
is also a lot more for them than for poorer players. What is important is
the relative value to them of $10,000 vs $20,000. If they have an 80%
chance of winning the hand by calling, then folding is +EV if $20,000 is
worth less to them than 1.25 times as much as $10,000, and -EV if it's
worth more than that. I actually think that for a top pro, $20,000 might be
worth less at the beginning of a deepstacked tournament than 1.25 times
as much as $10,000, but I really don't know.

[GotaFancy?]

Yep - I can see that now Jeremy

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Against one player, i actually couldnt bring myself to fold it. Imagine if you then went card dead for 10 hours lol

[AJ]

another caller.

You're a huge fav, if you're not prepared to make this bet you shouldn't be playing in imho (top pros excepted), if you fold this, it's almost certain you'll have to go all in later yourself with worse cards / odds.

A double up here buys you time to wait on cards later.

[wurzel133]

AJ hit the nail on the head if u dont call here you never will to get anywhere in a big tourney you are going to have to be all in on numerous occasions when you are behind . so you must call when you are favourite imho opinion its a no brainer you must call

[glceud]

Well not taking into account the fact it would never happen of course you should call. Starting tourney with 500 big blinds no one would reraise all in to increase their stack by 1%
Having said that I would fold as I would want to play poker against the best in the world on what would be possibly be my only chance.
Off course I could call and try and drink my buy in if Joe Legge was in charge of three days hospitality

[Ell Ess Dee]

Said it before, I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip and I would be willing to take chance later on, not 1st hand...

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by Ell Ess Dee

Said it before, I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip and I would be willing to take chance later on, not 1st hand...

Aren't you at least 75% against any hand?

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Aren't you at least 75% against any hand?

Best chance I can see is 23.021% for 8h7h v AcAd

Any better hands out there?

What are you biggest favourite against?

Biggest I can find is 90.097% for AcAd v Kd2c.....

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

What are you biggest favourite against?

Biggest I can find is 90.097% for AcAd v Kd2c.....

AcAd v As9c is 93.37% to win and another 1.42% to tie.

[Ell Ess Dee]

201376 enumerated boards

cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose
Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415___30.00
9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62