Got away cheaply

[GotaFancy?]

Dead chuffed with how cheaply I got away from this......

*** Handhistory for game 46839028 ***
Blinds 15/30 NL Hold'em - 29.05.2008 - 18:57
3
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players: 9
Seat 1: CrnaLegija ( 2400 ) - in game
Seat 2: plceud ( 2575 ) - in game
Seat 3: G0LF MAN ( 1220 ) - in game
Seat 4: _cashpoint ( 3680 ) - in game
Seat 5: GazBlades3 ( 5240 ) - in game
Seat 6: PL Telepee ( 2710 ) - in game
Seat 8: Red_Elephant ( 2540 ) - in game
Seat 9: dirtyoldman ( 2435 ) - in game
Seat 10: Rautasaha ( 2320 ) - in game
GazBlades3 posts SB $15.
PL Telepee posts BB $30.
**** dealing down cards ****
Dealt to PL Telepee [ 2§, 9§ ]
Red_Elephant folds.
dirtyoldman calls $30.
Rautasaha folds.
CrnaLegija calls $30.
plceud folds.
G0LF MAN calls $30.
_cashpoint folds.
GazBlades3 calls $15.
PL Telepee checks.
**** dealing flop **** [ 8ª, 9©, 9¨ ]
GazBlades3 checks.
PL Telepee checks.
dirtyoldman bets $60.
CrnaLegija folds.
G0LF MAN folds.
GazBlades3 folds.
PL Telepee calls $60.
**** dealing turn **** [ 4© ]
PL Telepee checks.
dirtyoldman bets $150.
PL Telepee calls $150.
**** dealing river **** [ k¨ ]
PL Telepee checks.
dirtyoldman bets $300.
PL Telepee calls $300.
dirtyoldman shows three of a kind, nines [ qª, 9ª ].
PL Telepee mucks [ 2§, 9§ ].
dirtyoldman wins 1170 chips from main pot with three of a kind, nines [ k¨, qª, 9ª, 9©, 9¨ ] with kicker [ q© ].

[Hodgey]

Were you chuffed because you also put him on a 9 too and knew you were outkicked? If so, why call the river bet too? I can make a case for calling the flop and turn bet to see if you got your full house or quads but not the river if you thought you were behind?

[GotaFancy?]

Fair comment.

I dont think I was certain enough that I was beat (anyone who says "I know 100% he has XX" is lying, unless it's The Mole saying you have Jacks ) to get away from it, but I was nervous enough from his betting patterns cumulatively to try and control the pot size and not risk my tournament at this stage.

Is it not a case, by the river of weiging it up something like - "there's a 50% chance I'm ahead and a 50% chance I'm behind - I'm being offered 3-1 on an even money shot, I should call for the value" - of course, at the time I didn't weigh it up quite that precisely......

If I thought it was 70% likely I'm behind, but I'm offered 3-1, it's still a call isn't it on the river? I think I'm behind, but I have the right odds to call....

Maybe this is one of those occasions that I should "trust my read"? and steer away from the maths more?