Flush on the flop. What do you do? (New HH to discuss)

[Valiant23]

2nd hand of an STT on Pokerstars.

PokerStars Game #7271665015: Tournament #37187789, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/12/02 - 17:42:33 (ET)
Table '37187789 1' 10-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: TROGON (1480 in chips)
Seat 2: moud (1360 in chips)
Seat 3: kebo1 (1880 in chips)
Seat 4: rosie_all_in (900 in chips)
Seat 5: Valiant23 (1480 in chips)
Seat 6: CCHITMAN (1640 in chips)
Seat 7: SammyMay (1800 in chips)
Seat 8: TUSCARORA (1480 in chips)
Seat 9: hoagsman (1480 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 10: leddiumm (1500 in chips)
Valiant23: posts small blind 10
CCHITMAN: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Valiant23 [9s 6s]
SammyMay: calls 20
TUSCARORA: folds
hoagsman: folds
leddiumm: folds
TROGON: calls 20
moud: folds
kebo1: calls 20
rosie_all_in: calls 20
Valiant23: calls 10
CCHITMAN: checks
*** FLOP *** [As 2s 7s]

Valiant23: (first to act)????

Thoughts..

[GotaFancy?]

You only have a mid flush ...... the danger is that you get outdrawn by a single spade (e.g. K s) - so I think you need to bet it hard to make your opponent pay for a draw to a higher heart ..... you can't give free cards....

Having said that, you are NOT that strong ..... so you're not wanting to build a big pot.....

A bit of a paradox in poker (and one I struggle with) - do you make your opponents pay for their draws (i.e. bet big) or do you acknowledge your weakness and control the pot size (i.e. dont bet big)

With 4 opponents, there WILL be higher spades out there - so the danger is real!! (and not that improbable that someone already has a higher made flush!!)

I do hope this isn't just a bad bead thread Mr V

[Valiant23]

I do hope this isn't just a bad bead thread Mr V

The result isn't important!

[GotaFancy?]

- yeah - no need to put the result down SO what do you think the right play is then?

[Fader]

id bet small, too many fish online will call you down hoping for the spade - thats what id do anyway

[Valiant23]

Originally Posted by GotaFancy?

- yeah - no need to put the result down SO what do you think the right play is then?

Not telling!












Yet....

[mrmuzeman]

Having said that, you are NOT that strong ..... so you're not wanting to build a big pot.....

A bit of a paradox in poker (and one I struggle with) - do you make your opponents pay for their draws (i.e. bet big) or do you acknowledge your weakness and control the pot size (i.e. dont bet big)

Eh? How is a flopped flush not strong? Pretty strong imo.

Bet 100. Makes Ks pay and top pair A will never think you have a flush and potentially raise you and at the least call.

With 4 opponents, there WILL be higher spades out there - so the danger is real!! (and not that improbable that someone already has a higher made flush!!)

It really is improbable enough not to worry about. Whats the chances of flopping a flush, 120/1 or summat? the 2 of you doing it, pretty unlikely really not worth worrying about tbh.

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

It really is improbable enough not to worry about. Whats the chances of flopping a flush, 120/1 or summat? the 2 of you doing it, pretty unlikely really not worth worrying about tbh.

My main concern is someone holding a single, higher spade and getting the 4 flush on the board ...... Assuming an opponent holds 1 spade, there are 7 spades out there, with 2 cards to come - about 28% to hit...

However, I think you're discounting the odds of someoone else having a flush too much as well ..... the odds of someone flopping a flush GIVEN that you have a 3 flush on the board will be FAR less than 120-1.....

[mrmuzeman]

However, I think you're discounting the odds of someoone else having a flush too much as well ..... the odds of someone flopping a flush GIVEN that you have a 3 flush on the board will be FAR less than 120-1.....

Hows that work? If 2 of you hold spades it makes it even more unlikely for 3 spades to fall on the flop surely

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Hows that work? If 2 of you hold spades it makes it even more unlikely for 3 spades to fall on the flop surely

No - I'm saying post flop - after you KNOW that there are 3 spades on the flop (which is the position Mr V is in) - now all you're looking at is the possibility of someone holding 2 of the spades remaining in the deck....

However, agreed that the chances of this are far less significant than the threat from a single higher spade

[mrmuzeman]

Ok I sort of see what youre saying, its a bit bloody confusing actually working that dual flush shit out. Anyway I dont think its too important the exact stat, its still very rare there will be another made flush out there. So I think were both agreed to bet good here, about 100 I think. I dont see any other play being reasonable. A checkraise just alerts people to the strength of your hand. A check could result in every one else checking and people drawing another spade for free. A small bet could result in people drawing too cheap and not making top pairs pay you off nicely etc etc.

I think a 3/4 to pot size bet is the only way to go here, pretty standard stuff imo.

[AJ]

You only have a mid flush ...... the danger is that you get outdrawn by a single spade (e.g. K s) - so I think you need to bet it hard to make your opponent pay for a draw to a higher heart ..... you can't give free cards....

Agree on the danger, you don't want someone else with one spade limping, if another spade comes out, and they raise then you must fold. I put you ahead, but expossed to all manner of hands, high flush, or the board could pair, allowing someone to represent a boat, which you'd have to fold to

Later on in the STT, I'd be inclinced to bet very hard and pickup blinds, or a single caller. Here, I'd bet 150 - 200, get rid of people on a speculative draw, but hopefully, get someone with 2 pair, or a straight draw (3, 4 ) to go with you.

[slapdash]

Given that you have 2 spades and 3 spades flop, the probability of a
particular opponent holding 2 spades is about 1 in 40. With 4 opponents in,
that means there's around a 1 in 10 chance of somebody else having a flush.


In a tournament, I don't want opponents with a high spade staying in
unless I'm getting good value for it, so I'd make a pot sized bet. I'd bet
a bit less in a cash game. With 3 spades on the board, everybody's going
to be a bit scared (unless they have the nut flush), so I'm not going to be
able to build much of a pot, and I'm happy to take the pot now.

[sensibleboy]

I would check and hope to induce a bet from an opponent around the table. Providing this works, when it comes back round to you I would then raise pretty big.

[Valiant23]

The fairly wide range of responses so far are very interesting, thank you!

Those of you who have played against me regularly will know that I would normally muck these cards pre-flop, so my experience of these situations is very limited.

I want to continue to tell the story, but I'll wait til later before I put up the next stage.

[happyhornet]

I would bet this out. You are almost certainly winning here at this point, but as everyone has stated above, one more spade and you are probably behind.
I would lead out at least 200, maybe a little more. Much less and you could get too many callers, and will have no idea where you stand when the turn card hits.

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by sensibleboy

I would check and hope to induce a bet from

That MAY explain why you appear to get outdrawn more than others ..... you're the only person that hasn't advocated a raise, giving your (five) opponents more opportunity to outdraw you.....

[robilaruk]

bet about 150 and call the shove re-raise

Damo

Originally Posted by Valiant23

2nd hand of an STT on Pokerstars.

Valiant23: (first to act)????

Thoughts..

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

I reckon in a 3$ STT a lot of players holding Qs.x or Ks.x will call any bet to the river tbh

[spreaditabout]

Go for it, bet decent, ALL-IN next time round. If beaten, so what, thats poker but you have to make someone pay with that hand.