Flopped nuts on tricky board

[Nade]

I've flopped the nuts, but the board is quite drawy and there's a lot of action - working out the optimum play in these areas has always been one of my gray areas.

Table #7092906 - Crouching Tiger 1
Starting Hand #357786405
Last Hand #357785021
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: RING
Money Type: REAL MONEY
Blinds are now $0.50/$1
Button is at seat 4
Seat 1: 27Nade - $170.90
Seat 2: Gatica1 - $115.43
Seat 3: titolab - $29.80
Seat 4: bish619 - $75.78
Seat 5: Heimlich81 - $114.45
Seat 6: WrayBuoy - $68.52
Moving Button to seat 5
WrayBuoy posts small blind ($0.50)
27Nade posts big blind ($1)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing [9h 9c] to 27Nade
Gatica1 raises to $3.50
titolab folds
bish619 calls $3.50
Heimlich81 folds
WrayBuoy folds
27Nade calls $3.50

Dealing Flop [9d 3d 8c]
27Nade checks
Gatica1 bets $11
bish619 calls $11
27Nade ...


Was the check wrong in the first place? Should i call to continue the trap but risk being outdrawn or look to build the pot now ? Just some of the thoughts and possibilites ...

Info i have on the players is gatica is a solid player, doesn't try anything too fancy from what i'd seen.
Bish is a bit loose and well, a bit fishy tbh.

[the croc]

$32.50 in the pot,im raising to $44 here big enough to discourage a flush chaser.ideal scenario is the board pairs on turn giving them their flush and you the full house.nothing wrong with your call initially,calling here is an option but i have lost too many hands slow playing for value.

[ubermonkey1]

at this point i would be pushing hard

you have the nuts at the moment and i would only be scared of someone with a open ended straight flush draw which is unlikely.

i suspect gatica has a overpair and bish could have anything ,but most likely a draw either straight or flush.

so it looks like your a pretty big favorite at the moment so i would raise to $40-$50.
if gatica does have a overpair he may well go all in over you ,which would be nice
if not bish may well call if hes been loose and fishy,make him pay for his draw.

i would have bet the flop because it looks less fishy than the check raise, also you get a bit more real info on the others hands by betting into them.

just a small probing bet like $4 is ok ,if gatica does have a overpair he would probably reraise that bet to protect himself on a drawy board (like he did anyway).then you just push back over the top and its hard for him not to call.

[AJ]

Agree, no cheap cards.

Someone is flush chasing here, don't give them pot odds. Pot sized raise is in order here

[robsterling]

I'd never, ever call here. Two draws on the board, and the overpair the original raiser is repping is going to be scared of a flush or straight card too. So if a diamond comes you either lose value or you're behind. Don't consider giving a free card.

So $33 in pot, $11 to call I'd make it $40-$45. Overpair may fold, but may push, if a draw calls it's a bad call. Don't get yourself in a sticky situation by trying to trap.

Another thing, I personally squeeze with 99 there preflop against most players, especially with the cold call. As played I check raise like (I hope!) you did.

[Nade]

Ok here's the rest of the hand ...

27Nade raises to $33
Gatica1 folds
bish619 folds
Taking Rake of $2.20 from pot 1
27Nade doesn't show
27Nade wins $41.80
Seat 1: 27Nade - $198.20
Seat 2: Gatica1 - $100.93
Seat 3: titolab - $29.80
Seat 4: bish619 - $61.28
Seat 5: Heimlich81 - $114.45
Seat 6: WrayBuoy - $68.02
End Of Hand #357786405

I did go for the pot sized re-raise which took the pot down. I was happy to win the pot, but as said in the first post i was wondering if the play was the right move to get maximum from the hand?

In general i don't seem to get the 'maximum' when i hit big hands and is something that needs working on so was wondering if this hand falls into that category too or i should be pleased to take the pot down at that point?

[the croc]

41% of your buy in from 1 hand,good value i would say.

[AlunB]

Yeah I think that's an interesting point Nade. And I'm going to play devil's advocate to this unrelenting wall of TAGs

I'm not sure calling here is a horrible play if you want either player to stack off against you. There are way more hands in their range that are not SD/FD hands than those that are. And you are such a massive favourite here.

This is a really really rough pokerstove, but it shows what I mean. And unless you have a stone cold read you can't say they are on a SD/FD for certain. Top pair, overpair, two pair or lower set all seem just as likely to me.

1,075,617 games 14.689 secs 73,226 games/sec
Board: 9d 3d 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.080% 75.09% 00.00% 807631 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 07.731% 07.59% 00.14% 81641 1523.50 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 17.189% 17.05% 00.14% 183385 1523.50 { JJ-TT, 88-77, 33, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, J9o+, T9o, 76o }

---
This is what happens if the nightmare scenario hits...

---
1,141,738 games 15.600 secs 73,188 games/sec
Board: 9d 3d 8c Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.678% 43.68% 00.00% 498715 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 18.926% 18.56% 00.37% 211895 4204.50 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 37.396% 37.03% 00.37% 422787 4204.50 { JJ-TT, 88-77, 33, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, J9o+, T9o, 76o }

---

And that's a ridiculously tight range for the fish if you ask me.

[robsterling]

how many fish double barrell into two callers unimproved with K high? Plus you lose value from an overpair/top pair if a draw card hits.

Sorry but a call is bad play to me, I think it always seems to be nitty players who always want to slow play big hands on dangerous boards not wanting to scare people off.

A call might win you more the odd time, but it will also lose money a lot too, and put yourself in difficult situations where you don't know where you stand.

[SteveO]

I would have led out with a pot sized bet hoping for any kind or raise behind whereby I would jam the pot. If they both flat called so be it but I think a big pair is likely to raise to find out where he is.

I would never just call against 2 opponents on that board in the situation you find yourself in. Your check raise was good enough to take down the pot and did scream of uber strength so unlikely to get any more action.

[AlunB]

Originally Posted by robsterling

how many fish double barrell into two callers unimproved with K high? Plus you lose value from an overpair/top pair if a draw card hits.

Sorry but a call is bad play to me, I think it always seems to be nitty players who always want to slow play big hands on dangerous boards not wanting to scare people off.

A call might win you more the odd time, but it will also lose money a lot too, and put yourself in difficult situations where you don't know where you stand.

Agreed. I'm just saying do you really think it's this black and white? Is a call really that bad here that it should never be countenanced against any player ever?

By that I mean, say you have seen the good player being very agressive post-flop and the fish calling down pretty light. Could you win both their stacks by check-raising a blank turn (which will happen more than 50% of the time right?) when they are both pot-committed.

Is poker ever that clear cut black and white that you can say never call here? That was my only point. I don't disagree with you per se.

The fish was the one calling the bet btw. At this level that doesn't automatically mean flush or straight draw.

FWIW I would agree with Steve'O (as has been Annie Duke in our mag) and say lead into this pot. You win more in the long run this way.

[robsterling]

Originally Posted by AlunB

Agreed. I'm just saying do you really think it's this black and white? Is a call really that bad here that it should never be countenanced against any player ever?

By that I mean, say you have seen the good player being very agressive post-flop and the fish calling down pretty light. Could you win both their stacks by check-raising a blank turn (which will happen more than 50% of the time right?) when they are both pot-committed.

Like I say I don't think a "good aggressive player" double barrels that kind of board against two opponents regularly, especially since we are told he doesn't get fancy.

And obviously poker isn't that black and white, but we play for positive expectation in the long run, and the +EV move here is undoubtedly raising - after all it's a multiway pot with 2 draws. If we have fantastic reads including c-bet percentages, cold call pre percentages, flat call c-bet percentages and a very good awareness of our image, we can take different lines - but we don't.

Originally Posted by AlunB

FWIW I would agree with Steve'O (as has been Annie Duke in our mag) and say lead into this pot. You win more in the long run this way.

And I tend not to be a great advocate of this unless we know how the preflop raiser reacts to "donk" bets into him. If we know for a fact he raises them often in 3 way pot then fine, however you could simply get a call (from fish) and a fold or 2 calls (assuming fishy stays). With less money in the pot on the turn. A check raise allows the original raiser to bet with air or a hand, the fish to call light, and us to reraise putting more in the pot and not allowing cheap draws - so in my mind it's the best move.

To me the best way to get more in the pot is 3-bet pre, which I would do a lot of the time. But I think it was played fine and this sort of hand won't be affecting your winrate really.

[AlunB]

Originally Posted by robsterling

Like I say I don't think a "good aggressive player" double barrels that kind of board against two opponents regularly, especially since we are told he doesn't get fancy.

Are you presuming the player doesn't have an overpair or a FD/SD? If so then I agree. I don't think we should assume that though. You make it sound like you think he has air - or am I reading that wrong?

Originally Posted by robsterling

And I tend not to be a great advocate of this unless we know how the preflop raiser reacts to "donk" bets into him.

I guess it's a question of do you think you are more likely to get more money in the long run by him raising over your bet if he has an overpair etc etc or by taking the C/R line? What does everyone else think?

I'm just asking questions here because I am interested in people's opinions about these situations. Although personally I would bet out, that doesn't mean I am right. Or even that I would do it every time.

[robsterling]

Originally Posted by AlunB

Are you presuming the player doesn't have an overpair or a FD/SD? If so then I agree. I don't think we should assume that though. You make it sound like you think he has air - or am I reading that wrong?

If he has an overpair more likely he will get in on the flop, a bad card can kill our action and we lose value. If he has flush draw, most likely it is with overcards and again he will often push flop, and again I don't want to give free cards to these draws in hope he bets again.

And the lead on the flop, I personally would want a good idea of the opponents reaction to this before I do it.

[GotaFancy?]

Originally Posted by AlunB

I'm just asking questions here because I am interested in people's opinions about these situations.

It's great to see a passionate discussion from two different camps - and it's the best way for us to learn - we dont learn anything by all agreeing with one another, we dont learn much by only hearing one argument.

I havent looked at it in enough depth to comment, but I'll make sure I find the time to have a good look

[AlunB]

Cheers Rob. Apologies for thread hijack Nade. I agree you played it just fine. Was just interested in thoughts on alternative lines as it's an interesting hand.

Any other thoughts/opinions gratefullly recieved.

[SteveO]

I agree that a check raise or leading out can both be applied to this situation depending upon the opponents but from my experience leading out is most likely to get an opponent to stack off, check raising scares em off.

[AlunB]

Also what about the not uncommon situation where you get two checks behind and then a scare card on the turn?

[Tweetypie05]

Originally Posted by Steve'O

I agree that a check raise or leading out can both be applied to this situation depending upon the opponents but from my experience leading out is most likely to get an opponent to stack off, check raising scares em off.

Nade - I think you played it perfectly. The pot wasn't huge on the flop and you check raised with the best hand once the pot was raised. A bet out would also work and I agree with Steve'O that your more likely to be ALL-IN with the bet on the flop.
So for me it's really a question of do you feel lucky punk?

As I say I think you played it well but as Alun points out they could have both checked (unlikely I would think) and, as always happen to me, the nightmare card comes on the turn. Then what?

Assuming you bet out on the flop how much should you bet ? What's the range and why?

[Nade]

Love this very interesting debate Would have replied yesterday but had a long sesh into sunday morning so had a hazy head.

Hard to know where to start on this but what i'll say is this was on pkr where no poker trackers or any other such device work so i didn't have any specific information on how often they call a flop bet or continuation bet etc. so i'm not totally confident on what ranges to put people on which is a large reason why i wouldn't have called the bet on the flop. If using a tracker then i think it's possible to call against the right opponents.

I'm not that good with maths really so it's useful to see those stats Alun points out as it's something i was also wondering about.

Essentially the reason i decided to re-raise and not call is because of bish who called - as they have a large range of calling hands and so there's a large amount of cards on the turn which would probably scare me and leave me in a tricky situation so i wanted to isolate the original raiser hoping they had pocket 10's or Jacks.

Certainly the bet out is another option i like, i imagine the original raiser would have folded as it looks like they put in a continuation bet but bish would have called and this scenario leads to a likely tricky turn card, but against 1 opponent i'd still feel very confident of winning. It's likely that i could have given them enough rope on the turn and a value bet on the river to get some more money from the hand so in hindsight this seems maybe the best option to extract a lot from the hand, although it brings higher risk - but it's called gambling at the end of the day!.

Being a TAG player the check raise does look extremely strong and scary so it's no surprise they folded. In this spot i wouldn't always c/r, for example if it was against 1 opponent i'd flat call the bet extremely confident that no matter of the turn i'd be ahead (unless they were going OTT with AKd and caught a diamond).

I welcome all thoughts on how the hand could have been played, including the call on the flop, but i personally wouldn't be able to call in that situation with there being too many possible scare cards on the turn.

As an aside, earlier that day i flopped trips 3 times within the space of 40mins and slow played them, allowing cheap turn cards - all 3 times the turn hit someones pocket pair giving them a FH and i lost about $80 so that spurred me to not give any cheap draws which is another reason i raised.


Sorry that's not very concise; everyone has made very good points so i'm trying to cover everything