Usa - Mls 2008/9

[Kaiser888]

The new season is just under a week away, and I'm looking foward to it massivley.

Been punting on the MLS selectively for a few seasons, and must have watched over a hundred games in the last 3 years...... but I'm looking to step it up a bit this season, as I feel at least in terms of knowledge I should have an edge on the bookies.

I personally find it increasingly difficult to find value in top flight domestic markets, and feel confident that there should be lots of value about, with the bookies being less tight on this market and offering odds on every match.

Would really appreciate any inisights from other's who have a working knowledge of the MLS etc etc, and hope that this thread can be a hugely successful one.

Also quite interested in how the bookies price up LA Galaxy's early season matches......... as despite the obvious talents they posess, Beckham, Donovan etc, I'm still pretty dubious of their squad strength and am suprised that their only major post-season acquistion has been Celestine Babayaro ..........

Chivas look hugely solid this year and are darkhorses for the overall crown. Solid and technically gifted, they should be very difficult to beat indeed, and I'll hope to take some nice odds on them especially at home. The likes of Suarez, Wicky, Galindo and Klistjean, making up a very impressive looking outfit.

Also think Chicago should have a good year, and certainly are spoilt for choice in an attacking sense, with the likes of Blanco, Barrat, Rolfe, Franowski and exciting draftee prospect Nyarko.

Houston again look strong, but they look a little short up front having lost Ngwyena and Jacqua, and look overly reliant on Brian Ching and perhaps will look to play De Rosario as a second striker if they don't get reinforcements in. Still the likely champions.

New England have posted great results over the last few years without picking up the silverware, barring a minor cup win last season, and have lost a few key cogs in the machine, but still should be strong enough to make the play-offs with ease.

DC United are a team that I really enjoy watching, they play good attacking football and have alot of talented players, although they fell short when it mattered. The likes of Fred, Emillio, and new signing Gallardo should light up the MLS, along with very decent home grown players such as Olsen, who really impressed me last year.

New York are a threat with Angel and Altidore making up the best striking partnership in the MLS --- one which would not be out of place in the Premiership in my opinion. Altidore is a special talent, he has pace, skill, strength, height, and a goalscorers touch as well as a great head on his shoulders, and he's still just 18/19!!! Reyna was disappointing last year, and will have alot of pressure on his shoulders with the majority of the teams play going through him. The likes of Richards and Van Den Berg should provide enough ammunition for the two A's, and although on paper they don't look great defensively the coach has a reputation of being very shrewd in a tactical sense, and so I expect their defence to be fairly solid.

Kansas City are another footballing team, and I expect new signing Claudio Lopez to really make a big impression here....... With him and Maranelli pulling the strings they should be a constant threat to any defence....... only worrying thing is that they lack a proven goalscorer.

Toronto should be strong at home, and will no doubt improve on last years results - if you havent seen a Toronto home game then you would be shocked at the atmosphere, always a 20,000 sell out, and as vocal fans in anywhere in the wold - by far the most intimidating ground in the MLS ---- although they still look a little limited up front......... Dichio etc

Finding it more difficult to predict how some of the other teams are going to fare..............
- Colorado again look limited in a creative sense, but should post solid enough results to creep into the playoffs.
- Columbus have managed to keep hold of the influential Schelleto, but again look a little short up front, although they have a few players who I rate fairly highly - Gaven etc.
- RSL...... jury is out here, don't like their post-season signings much, but posted some improved results at the end of last season, they'll rely on their two Argentines massively.
- San Jose are the new boys in MLS, and although they have traded solidly to get a core of experienced players as well as a few promising youngsters I struggle to see where the goals are coming from. Unsuprisingly it is a general trend that new sides in MLS struggle in their first year, and I'd expect San Jose to be no different.


........... May have missed a few teams out, but just a few early thoughts....... apologies for terrible spelling as I wrote this in a rush.

[Football-Tipper]

Kaiser nice write up

[davidmphill]

Welcome Kaiser, look forward to more thoughts on the MLS season about to start. Going next Saturday to watch my local side Colorado Rapids play host to the travelling circus that is David Beckhams prima donnas from LA Galaxy!

[Football-Tipper]

I also hear that Vegas are about to jump on the MLS band wagon and have tabled a $35m offer..... Sin City FC here we come...

Also Beckham has an option to buy out LA Galaxy in 2011

[Kaiser888]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

Welcome Kaiser, look forward to more thoughts on the MLS season about to start. Going next Saturday to watch my local side Colorado Rapids play host to the travelling circus that is David Beckhams prima donnas from LA Galaxy!

I've heard some really good things about Clarke, and he's look decent when I've seen him play...... definately one to look out for I thought.

What do you think about their signing of Gomez as designated player.

Admittidly they needed a playmaker desperately but can't help but feel that they've been a bit hasty here, I think D.C got by far the best end of the deal there. Not convinced it's a good move, all things considered.




Link to MLS fantasy league for a bit of fun too.

http://fantasy.mlsnet.com/

[Kaiser888]

Ha, I hadn't heard about Vegas.

It's all kicking off in MLS at the moment.........

League expansions, high profile owners...... De La Hoya, Carey etc.

This, as well as the Beckham factor, are some of the reasons why I'm trying to make the most of this year in terms of value, because the bookies will catch up eventually.....

[Football-Tipper]

With Spanish La Liga and English Premiership stars like David Beckham joining the MLS soccer league in the United States, the thought of having one MLS team in Las Vegas are just driving some Vegas locals crazy.
A thread in one major soccer website entitled, ‘’Las Vegas MLS plan ($35 Million on the Table)'’ became one of the most popular threads in the said soccer website. It drew 386 posts and attracted around 16,000 views, all probably coming from people living in Las Vegas.
‘’The city is twice the size of Salt Lake City, and it’s expected to pass Denver by 2010,'’ writes monster (obviously NOT his real name…) from Hanover, Pa. ‘’That’s not counting tourists. It’s not a slam dunk, but it’s not dire, either.'’
Apparently, Las Vegas locals have been longing for one MLS soccer team in their hometown that they already have nicknames for the new club. Some of the nicknames being tossed around include FC Vegas, Red Devils, Las Vegas Aces (ewww…) and my personal favorite, Sin City FC.
Others even have designs for the Las Vegas soccer team’s uniform. Of course, there were also some silly stuff posted on the thread.
‘’I just hope they serve cheap, giant margaritas at the Silver Spurs Dome,'’ scott47a writes from somewhere on the West Coast. Nebraska Addick envisions a section of Elvis impersonators who yell ‘’Viva!'’ at every good play by the home team. (That’s rather pathetic…)
Apparently, Las Vegas people want MLS Commissioner Don Garber to publicly acknowledge the Las Vegas Sports Entertainment Group, monster on the other hand thought otherwise.
‘’It’s not (Garber’s) call,'’ monster writes. ‘’It’s the owners’ call. But that fact escapes many people on (the thread) with great regularity.'’

[Kaiser888]

Originally Posted by Football-Tipper

With Spanish La Liga and English Premiership stars like David Beckham joining the MLS soccer league in the United States, the thought of having one MLS team in Las Vegas are just driving some Vegas locals crazy.
A thread in one major soccer website entitled, ‘’Las Vegas MLS plan ($35 Million on the Table)'’ became one of the most popular threads in the said soccer website. It drew 386 posts and attracted around 16,000 views, all probably coming from people living in Las Vegas.
‘’The city is twice the size of Salt Lake City, and it’s expected to pass Denver by 2010,'’ writes monster (obviously NOT his real name…) from Hanover, Pa. ‘’That’s not counting tourists. It’s not a slam dunk, but it’s not dire, either.'’
Apparently, Las Vegas locals have been longing for one MLS soccer team in their hometown that they already have nicknames for the new club. Some of the nicknames being tossed around include FC Vegas, Red Devils, Las Vegas Aces (ewww…) and my personal favorite, Sin City FC.
Others even have designs for the Las Vegas soccer team’s uniform. Of course, there were also some silly stuff posted on the thread.
‘’I just hope they serve cheap, giant margaritas at the Silver Spurs Dome,'’ scott47a writes from somewhere on the West Coast. Nebraska Addick envisions a section of Elvis impersonators who yell ‘’Viva!'’ at every good play by the home team. (That’s rather pathetic…)
Apparently, Las Vegas people want MLS Commissioner Don Garber to publicly acknowledge the Las Vegas Sports Entertainment Group, monster on the other hand thought otherwise.
‘’It’s not (Garber’s) call,'’ monster writes. ‘’It’s the owners’ call. But that fact escapes many people on (the thread) with great regularity.'’

Sin City FC would be a stroke of marketing genius

Can't help but feel that they'd end up with at least one massively overweight, troubled, and long faded star though.......... gascoigne anyone?

[Kaiser888]

Looking to take some nice odds on San Jose in the early stages.

Despite having got together a modest bunch of players, although very solid and workmanlike to a man, they seemed to have gelled incredibly well in pre-season, winning the Carolina Challenge Cup with a 3-0 win over New York.

Interestingly the winners of the last four tournaments have gone on to win either the MLS Cup or the MLS Supporters' Shield, given for the best record during the regular season.

Obviously It's a bit much to expect them to be challenging for league honours, but this illistrates how well the team has gelled and will be of much encouragement with the start of the league just around the corner.

Unfortunately they don't start untill week 2, but I'll be interested to see how the bookies price them up...... presuming that they intend to.....

Toronto - on the other hand - managed by englishman John Carver - who I seem to remember fighting Craig Bellamy at an airport more than anything else - have had a woeful pre-season..... culminating in a pathetic showing against USL side Charleston - losing 3-0 and having just two attempts at goal.

Admittidly they were without a few key players, but I still think they are horribly short in an attacking sense. Alot of responsibillity will fall on the shoulders of Maurice Edu, who will need to be inspirational if his side are to make any positive impact this season.

[keyshawn]

Originally Posted by Kaiser888

This, as well as the Beckham factor, are some of the reasons why I'm trying to make the most of this year in terms of value, because the bookies will catch up eventually.....

I was kinda thinking the same thing. How much attention can bookies really be giving the MLS? Its such a niche sport here, seems like it would be easier to find value if you really do your homework. All these squads are razor thin. Watching injuries will be more important than in most leagues.

My .2 cents about my home town teams are:

The Galaxy and the over seem like a proposition that will pay off alot over the course of the season. A healthy Beckham, Donovan and Ruiz will be too much for most MLS defenses to handle. They are a class above what these other teams will be used to seeing. On defense, this is a really woeful team. They are slow, slow, slow. The NY-LA game o/u should be about 9.5.

A note on their first game this weekend - they'll have Donovan and Beckham travelling back from Europe and into the high altitude of Denver and a full house. Ruiz had a small twinge in his leg and has been resting as a precaution. Given those 3 have been playing in 3 different countries this week, I'm not sure how in sync they'll be for this one. And, outside those guys, they is a massive drop off in talent. Despite the lack of star power, Colorado should be favorites in this one.

As for Chivas, they are headed in the right direction. If they didnt get hit with injuires right before the playoffs last year, they might have taken it all. This year, with Preki working wonders and in year 2 and the Galindo/Razov partnership upfront, a year more mature. These guys were really clicking last year playing some great football. This team has to be amongst the favorites. Its ashame they have such bad support. Look for them to punish the Galaxy. It will be the only games they get to play in front of a packed house at home and they'll take out some aggresion on their far more popular neighbors.

[Kaiser888]

Keyshawn.

You make some very good points there, and do so very succinctly - especially regarding LA.

As you said, the trio of Beckham, Donovan and Ruiz should be too good for the majority of MLS defences...... and will have opposition coaches pulling their hair out, easy to mark one out of the game but the gaps left open in attempting to do so will be exploited. The movement off the ball of Donavan especially is a class above anything else in the MLS, and Ruiz is a geniune threat who always manages to find the right positons.

When those 3 are playing LA will be very difficult to stop.

However as a result of the money spent on these three players - in keeping with the salary cap system - is that - as you said - the rest of their squad is average at best, and they have nothing like adaquete cover for any of those 3 players.

The fitness and form of Abel Xavier will also be absolutely key to the Galaxy's success, his experience and abillity to marshall the defence will be absolutely key, get the sense that they need to establish a consistant backline too - I don't rate Cronin too highly and it's vital that he has stabillity around him.

I agree with you with regards to overs in the majority of LA's matches, especially against attack minded teams - should be goals galore - and that will sit well with Lalas and the league's marketing men.

However the reliance of the squad on those 4 players is deeply worrying, especially with Xavier being injury prone and the others with international committments - for those who don't know - the MLS season operates externally to the international calender....... and you're spot on in your emphasis of missing players in terms of the betting - especially with LA - and this should reward the research and taking early prices.

Agree that Colorado is a difficult place to go for the first game up, especially on the back of international duty for Beckham and Donovan. And I'll be looking to oppose them at the right price.


With regards to Chivas I'm a bit of a fan, they play very decent passing football and have a number of talented players. Sascha Klistjean - bad sp - particularly impressed me last season.

They've also managed to pull of one of the signings of the summer in Raphael Wicky - the Swiss holding midfielder - who still has alot to offer despite his veteran status, and should fit perfectly into the Chivas set up.

I think LA missed a trick here, the signing of a quality holding midfielder such as Wicky would have improved their prospects no end, and although Wicky has not been talked about much I think of all the summer imports he could be the most effective.

However, it is the general consensus within the MLS that the striking pairing of Galindo and Razov don't actually work that well in tandem, but do their own thing very effectively..... despite the number of goals scored between them - around 28 - only 5 of these was the result of an assist by the strike partner. But on the occassions that I saw them play last season I thought they looked very decent indeed.

Still, they will look to have improved on that understanding in pre-season, however their lack of competitive friendly matches has put me off backig them in the first few weeks.

[Kaiser888]

Early thoughts.

- Lay of LA
- Lay of Toronto
- Lay of RSL
- Possible back of DC

[keyshawn]

Lines are out:

1:00 PM3 /29 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29485	TORONTO FC		o2½-105	+315
29486	COLUMBUS CREW		u2½-125	-133
29487	Draw			+225

3:00 PM3 /29 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29489	CHICAGO FIRE		o2½+115	+175
29490	REAL SALT LAKE		u2½-145	+135
29491	Draw			+215

4:30 PM3 /29 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29493	HOUSTON DYNAMO		o2½-110	+200
29494	NE REVOLUTION		u2½-120	+115
29495	Draw			+220

5:00 PM3 /29 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29497	WASHINGTON DC UNITED		o2½-120	+150
29498	KC WIZARDS		u2½-110	+150
29499	Draw			+215

8:30 PM3 /29 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29501	LOS ANGELES GALAXY		o2½+110	+165
29502	COLORADO RAPIDS		u2½-140	+140
29503	Draw			+215

USA SOCCER - Mar 30

1:00 PM3 /30 /08

#			Total	Money Line
29505	CHIVAS USA		o2½EV	+165
29506	FC DALLAS		u2½-130	+140
29507	Draw			+220

[Kaiser888]

Nothing much standout this week.



A lay of Toronto and RSL may have to do for me.

[keyshawn]

I like the Toronto lay pick. I'm going with that long with NE-Houston Under and Galaxy Pk.

Houstons got a strong D and weak O and will be ultra defensive with the big mid week match vs Pachuca coming up. Alot of changes to NE and it might take them a while to gel.

Colorados got a lot of injury concerns, the Galaxy don't. Galaxy's had big troubles in Colorado, but Colorado is not much of an offensive threat. How the Galaxy performs is such a wild card. But, its good odds for the healthier more talented team.

[Kaiser888]

Abstained completely this week chose to take a watching brief........... to find out MLS tv isn't working

Columbus seem to have won out very comfortable winners, whilst RSL have just taken a deserved lead with 70 minutes gone.

I guess this counts as aftertiming

Gutted that I can't watch DC vs Kansas, as that promises to be a cracker.

[Kaiser888]

Having watched archive footage of most of the matches this week a few things stood out for me............


- LA are in dire shape - fine it was a tough opening fixture against Colorado but they were badly exposed. Their defence is too slow, their keeper is too inexperienced, their central midfield is not up to standard........ lacking a ball winner desperately. And Gullet is trying to play a system that fits his way of thinking and how he wants the team to play above one that suits the personnel he has. If they go with the same system against San Jose I think an upset is very possible.

........... too tired now will post more later

[Setup]

Great to have someone(s) that have intrests of the league. Try to predict there a bit myself last season, but it was too unpredictable for me.
Hope it would be a profitable season.

[Kaiser888]

Hugely impressed by New England against Houston, especially with their young Gambian'sMensally and Nyassi....... who both have pace and trickery in abundance and are sure to make a huge impact in this league.

About to post a tip up backing them +0.25 at Chicago.......... but it's been announced that they will be missing Ralston and Twellman for a few weeks at least. Twellman is a proven goalscorer and is a big blow, but the loss of Ralston will hurt more, as the team's playmaker and principal assister...... (if that is a word) without him they really lack in that position and so I can't back them....... although it wouldn't suprise me if they got a result.

Also some injury problems for LA, with high profile striker Carlos Ruiz ruled out for up to 6 weeks.... if he's replaced like for like by a reserve striker it makes them look an even more layable proposition against San Jose.

Yallop is a good manager at this level, with a proven track record, although he had a bit of a disaster at LA in what was a very strange situation. He has have had time to prepare his team exclusively for this match, and will set his team up very tight tactically in order to expose LA's numerous weaknesses.

San Jose will also go into the game full of confidence after a great pre-season, and with plenty of seasoned veterans in their side they won't be at all overawed by the occassion.

BF markets haven't formed as yet, but my first tip of the season might have to be a lay of LA at under 1.8......... will post later if I take the bet on.

[Kaiser888]

Since Toronto entered the MLS they have:

- Played 31 games

15 at home
- Won 5
- Lost 7
- Drawn 3
16 away
- Won 1
- Lost 11
- Drawn 4

Total: Won: 6 Lost: 18 Drawn:7

They haven't improved their squad particularly, were dire in pre-season and were unimpressive against Columbus.

DC are currently best priced 8/15 to beat them on Saturday but there might be some bigger prices about closer to the date, and despite their playing a game today, should be comfortably fresh enough to do the job.

In short, it's worth opposing Toronto away. Given the 'randomness' of this league bookies are reluctant to price up under 1/2 - I think the lowest I saw last year was 2/5. However backing quality home teams like DC and Chivas amongst others against Toronto looks set to reap benefitis....... there is a gulf in class in this league and in Toronto's case it's pretty big.