Egyptian League - Round 25

[Youssef]

This season it's been a bit too hard to post tips about the Egyptian league, mainly beacuse of the unsteady schedule. I sometimes even miss watching my favourite team games on TV due to not even knowing they play on that particular day.

Anyways, 2 hours ago I found out we have 4 games today. Even soccerstand liste only 3 earlier and ammended it just a few minutes ago. I decied to take a look at the odds on offer, and one bet stands out to me.

Both 10Bet and Bet365 are offering a reversed handicap on Ettisalat (Telecom Egypt) vs El Massri. The curent offer is -0.25/+0.25 at odds of 2.20 & 2.15 rspectively on the home win. Both offer 1.70 on the away win (Asian) and I think that's well worth a punt since it's 95% probable to collect (at least half a win). Ekl Massri simly won't lose for they are at a fabulous form, unbeaten in their last 6 (since veteran Hossam Hassan became a coach and took over) and that includes a win at cairo stadium over Zamalek (2nd on the table).

Telecom Egypt are of limited skills with only 2-3 more distinguished players, but overall they rely on team-pla rathr than individual skill. They do have a very good coach in Tareq Yahia, but he certainly can't do any better with a team that has not a single player capable of turning a game on his own.

El Massri have collected 12 points from the last 6 games, and have climbed from the relegation threatened zone up to 8th on the table, and I would expect them to break into the top 6 at the very worst by the end of the season, while Ettisalat are only one point above the drop zone and have a 50-50 chance to merely survive.

Bank on El-Massri not to lose.

Elswhere, Al-Ahli will win over baladeyya for sure, but the game could be cancelled. There are issues in baladeyya over playing the game in tanta, and they may not show up.

The other two games I'm not too sure about, so I'll skip.

[Youssef]

Latest update: 10 minutes to kick-off, and Baladeyya have arrived in Tanta stadium, so the game is on.

[Youssef]

At odds of 1.86 (with 10Bet) on level ball handicap, it's hard to ignore the value on Ettihad (of Alexandria) to win today over Enppi in Alexandria stadium.

A quick look at the table shows why the bookies have such high odds on the home team. they are only 4 goals above the relegation zone, while Enpi are a whole 10 points (and 5 places) better.

However, Enppi have only won once on the road all season. They simly suck on their travels this season, while Etti is unbeaten at home for the last 3, and two of them were up against 2nd and 3rd on the table, namely Zamalek and issmaili, respectively. Both ended in 1-1 raws, while the other game was a 1-0 home win over Telecom Egypt (fellow strugglers of Etti).

Enppi are safe now, but may want to climb up the table a bit further. However, with 9 points separating them from the 3rd/4th places, and with both 3rd and 4th playing eachother today (and having a game at hand against eachother as well) it's virtually impossible for Enppi to play African football next season either, so they have nothing to play for.

Alexandria is passionate about her team, and the fans will be 100% behind the players to make u for the 0-2 reverse conceded last in Nag' Hammadi (vs Aluminium) after going 7 games without a loss.

It's 60% a home win, thus 2.55 on the outright win is value, but level ball is even better because it's 5% a probability (or less) that Ennpi will come back with all 3 points. Ettihad are used to this situation, and fo about a whole decade they have maden it their mission to survive late into the season after looking set to relegate until the middle of the season. The same thing happens again, and it should be another one of those escapades Etti keeps practicing (leaving everyone wondering why they didn't play like that from the word go).

Good Luck

[Youssef]

The game of Gaish vs Issmaili (or as the bookies think it is Issmaili vs Gaish) looks like a 1-1 draw to me, but as you all know correct score bets are useless unless you are betting with a strategy.

The reason the bookies have Issmnaili as the home team is because this is a postponed game from round 10. Currently being playe is roun 25 which actually is when they should have playe at Issmailia. However, the Egyptian FA decie they cannot play the return leg before the 1st leg, so they switched the pitch.

Anyways, Issmaili is 1-7-1 for there last 9 games on the travel, and 5 of them ene in 1-1 draws. The other two were 0-0 and 2-2, so anyway you look at it statistically it's a 1-1 draw.

El gaish are 2-5-1 in their last 8 overall, with the last 3 home games all ending in draws. 3 of the draws were goalless though, while they drew 1-1 once at home and once away in the last 8. In fact, out of 8 draws all season, El gaish has had 1-1 draws in 3 of them, while all other 5 ened goalless.

this is because El Gaish is efessively solid, and they have conceded the least in Egypt (14 so far) shared with Al-Ahli, although Ahli played two more games. Issmaili is the 3rd best defence after the two with 18 goals conceded.

Both teams share 3rd spot with 41 points each, but Issmaili has a 6 goals advantage. 3rd spot is the African Confederation qualifying spot (equivalent of UEFA Cup in Europe), but even moer is at stake, since -as mentioned- these two have a game in hand against eachother, and they both stand only 4 points bhin 2n spot which is the 2n CL spot. Neither would want to lose, obvioulsy, and a raw woul still be better for both sies.. for now.

[Youssef]

Ok, I give up! this is one reason why I don't like tipping on my own country's lague.

Yesterday the game of Petrojet vs Suez Cement was moved a day earlier (from today). At kick-off time I found out it was moved back to it's original day 24 hours after they moved it earlier.

Al Ahli game was not even sure to be held 3 hours before kick off.

And now this. The FA appears to have reversed it decision to play El gaish vs Issmaili first. It's Issmaili vs Gaish now. The funny thing is yesterday at night the channel airing the Zamalek game announer said "Issmaili vs Gaish" in the presence of an FA member (actually, president of the refrees committee). the latter commente it was Gaish vs Issmaili not vice versa! If HE doesn't knwo the venue for which to send his referee, how -the hell- is anyone else supposed to tell?

Anyways, this has not much bearing on the final ecision. A draw it is still, but drop the 1-1 exact score as now it's more likely to end goalless I think.