Egyptian League

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Minor Leagues)
Event	Ahli - Ettihad
Selection	Draw
Strength	10/10
Date	01/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.33 (Back)
Reasoning	This is a gift. The visitors have every chance to take a point from Cairo Stadium, and the double chance bet looks like a very good proposition (@ 2.65 with UniBet). I do not really expect them to win, but I think the draw is the most likely outcome considering the circumstances. As it is, Ahli has already won the title, and thus are fielding their reserves. They are more concerned about giving their 1st team some rest ahead of the return leg in the African CL against Platinium (of South Africa) in the weekend. Al Ahli lost 1-2 in Pretoria. The return leg is still 8 days away, but a positive rest may benefit the team anyway. Ettihad is 3rd from bottom on the table, and are 2 points adrift from safety. Since after the CAN 2008, they lost twice, won twice, and drew 6 times. It’s obvious that Ettihad has taken the draw to be their way of attempting to escape relegation. It may not be the ideal choice, but considering theit very limited squad on both skill and depth, it maybe the only way to go for them. Ahli are unmotivated, and are playing with their 2nd best line-up. Coach Manuel Jose has already announced that Islam El-Shater, Shady Mohammad, Amado Flavio, Gilberto, Aniss Bou Djelban and Hossam Ashour will all be rested, in addition to injured keeper Amir Abdel Hamid. Since Essam EL Hadari left to join Swiss outfit Sion, Amir has been the 1st choice keeper, but today Ahmad Adel will be between the posts, and he appeared quite shaky and inexperienced in the 2 games he played before. Still, some 1st teamers are included, such as Abou Treika, Met’eb, Barakat, Belal and El Sayyed, but they are likely to be benched. Ettihad, on the other hand, will have all their players available for this game, including Abdel Hamid Hassan and Ahmad Hassan, both of whom have been transferred from Ahli only last January. It’s a very good opportunity to make money. A safer bet would be Ettihad +1.25 (asian) @ 1.89 with 10Bet, but a loss is a loss for Etti, and they do need the points, while Ahli simply will aim to preserve their unbeaten record. I’m betting on the draw here. 4.33 w/Bet365 looks like a massive price to offer on this outcome. Good Luck

[royalbelle]

hi youssef,
whats your opinion on zamalek as it looks like they are in a battle for second place great info as usual

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Minor Leagues)
Event	Arab Contractors - Zamalek
Selection	Away Win
Strength	10/10
Date	01/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Another very good priced bet in the away win here. Zamalek are currently 3rd on the table with just a point less than 2nd placed El-Gaish. 2nd place is the 2nd (and final) African CL spot in Egypt. CAF only allows the champions to participate in the CL, but a few “major power houses” such as Egypt, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoir and Morocco are allowed to participate with 2 squads (Champions and runner-ups). 3rd placed in these countries plays in the African Confederstions, while from other countries it’s 2nd place that qualifies for the Confederations Championship. Anyway, Zamalek seems to have found some rhythm towards the end of the season after stuttering for most of it. They have won 3 on the trot (4-3 at Suez Cement, 2-1 at Mahalla and 1-0 at home over Harass). Best player is Shikabala, whom is on top form an is doing wonders. Zamalek has also won 3-0 at home over InterClub (Angola) in the 1st leg of the African CL (round of 16) meaning they have one foot in the groups stage already. FIFA has mentioned Zamalek in a recent article, citing the come back of a “major force in the North of Africa”. Gamal Hamza scored Zamalek’s last 3 league goals. He also is on a good form, but you can never fully trust the moody striker. He is full of skill, but sometimes is very selfish, and on occasion is not in the mood to play. Amr Zaki made a come back in the 2nd half vs InterClub, but looks a little bit out of form still, and Sherof Ashraf is anything but lucky. His shots keep hitting the woodwork and rebounding back into the field. If they were wide shots I would say it’s his own fault, but 1 or two shots hitting the woodwork every game is a tad unlucky. The backline looks to have tightened up a little with Ahmad Magdi moved from midfield/left back to play as a centerback. Magdi is onl good for spoiling attacks. He used to backfire, spoiling his team’s own attacks when he played at the midfield. Moving him to the backline worked fine, for now he has only the opponents attacks to destruct. Once again it’s unclear whether Monsef or Waheed will be playing this game under the bar. Both have been included in the team list, and -for the 1st time this season- Zamalek are heading into a game without injuries or suspensions. Moqaweloun are a tough opposition, although they are a bottom half team still. They stand 4poinst above the droip zone with 5 games to go, including this one. Their last 3 games all ended in draws (1-1 at Port-Said vs Massri, 0-0 at Alexandria vs Harass, and 2-2 at home vs Aluminium). It should hav been a bet on the draw were it not for Zamalek being on the ups. Zamalek are the 2nd name in Egyptian (and arguably African) football, and with a full squad they should be able to take the points, especially when they are very much motivated (for a CL spot), and also builing on confidence with 4 successive wins, and a place in the Egyptian Cup final (vs Enppi). It maybe not be easy, but Zamalek usually starts strong of late, so if they can take an early 2 goals lead they should be able to defend it. Good Luck

[royalbelle]

thanks for the advice youssef i took zamalek halftime which turned out to be a shrewd move.keep up the good work