Egypt League (week 28)

[Youssef]

First, SportingBet has all other 7 games up, but not Aluminium vs Ahli. This is because they got burnt twice in a row by Ahli losing both last 2 games, due to them fileding reserves and youngsters since they officially won the tilte.

Both BWin and 10Bet have only 5 games on offer, while Both Bet365 and Pinnacle (usually offering lines on Egypt as well) have opted to skip the games altogether.

8 games are about to kick off (at 17:00 pm CET) and some look straight forwrad while others look quite puzzling. Here's a summary of the recommended bets:

Confident Picks: Massri to beat Baladeyya (Evens), Zamalek to be ahead at half-time vs Tersana (Evens), and Harass vs Petrojet to go over 2.5 goals (2.10)

Likely to win Picks: Harass to beat Petrojet, Issmaili to beat Mahalla, Issmaili and Mahalla to go over 2.5, Ettihad to beat Suez Cement.

Value Bets: Arab Contractors to draw to Ettisalat, Enppi to beat El-Gaish

Briefs:

Massri playing at home in Port-Said should easily dispose of relegation bound Baladeyya, and odds of EVENS with SportingBet sound like liscence to print money. Massri lost only once (their last game at Issmailia) under Hossam Hassan, and the other 8 have been evenly ivided between wins and draws. However, they scored in all but 1 of these 8, so they are likely to find th net.

The visitors have not won a single game in their last 9, and have only scored once in the last game after going 3 games without scoring, so at Port-Said they are unlikely to find the net.

Also Massri are rushing towards the top half since Hossam took over, and are only 2 points now from breaking into the top 8, while Baladeyya are 5 points adrift from safety and are 90% relegators now that they have drawn their last game to Suez Cement, whom are on level points with Baladeyya.

Harass v Petrojet is likely a home win, while Mahalla v Issmaili looks like an away win, with both games going over 2.5

Harass lost only once (to Zamalek) in their last 9 games, an have kept 6 clean sheets in them, while conceding once in each of the other 3. Petrojet are only 3 points behind Harass, but are winless in 7 now, and eventhough still tied as the best scoring team they have only resume scoring in their last 3 (4 goals in total) after scoring only once in the 4 games before them.

Petrojet also have a porous defence that has let in more than any other side in the top half (35 in 27 games) so with those stats the game should go well over 2.5 an looks like Harass to win. (The reverse leg ended 3-2 to Harass at Petrojet's pitch in Suez).

Suez Cement will probably lose at home to Ettihad as well. They are rock bottom and winless in 9 (0-3-6), while Ettihad managed to get themselves off the bottom and are now 4 points above the drop zone, so a win here guarantees their top flight status. Ettihad lost only once in their last 11, an although they only won 4 games from them, those include the loast 2. To add to it, those last 2 were over Ahli and Gaish (title winners and 4th on the table), so no matter how you look at it, and unless something's absolutely wrong on the Alexandrains minds they should easily win at Suez.

Zamalek at home v Tersana looks an easy fixture for the white tribe, except they may feel exhausted having just come back from Angola where they played their 2nd leg of the African CL round of 16 tie against Interclube. Zamalek lost that game by 1-2, but went through on aggregate, courtesy of an earlier 3-0 home win.

This game in particular has no value in the 1.40 odds on the home win, but odds of evens on Zamalek to win the 1st half look pretty appealing, especially with Zamalek's developed habit of late in scoring early goals and sleeping on them. They will also need to do that today because the fatigue may get to them later on, so they must build a comfortable lead as early as they can.

So, these were the straight forward games, and now come the trick ones:

Moqaweloun (Arab Contractors) vs Ettisalat (Telecom Egypt) could be anyone's guess, but I would rather back the draw because 3 points separate these two (Moqaweloun ahead), so it's a relegation 6 pointer, and while both sides would love to win, each has only won once in their respective last 10 games.

Mahalla vs Issmaili has always been a tough fixture for both sides, no matter where their respective locations on the table maybe. This time though, Mahalla seem to have picked the wrong time to be playing the Brazil of Egypt, for Issmaili have only lost 3 games all season, and have won their last 3 scoring 10 and conceding 3 in them.

Mahalla themselves are on a bad spell, having not won in their last 5 games (3 losses followed by 2 draws in the last 2 games). They have scored in each of the last 4 though (5 goals in total) thus the game looks likely to have goals on both sides, but Issmaili are favourites to win and continue their fierce struggle with Zamalek for the 2nd spot.

The away win is priced at 2.25 while the overs is priced at only 2.00, so I will probably back the away win.. yet again may back both.

Enppi lost only once in their last 8 (vs Issmaili in Issmailia), and have won 5 of them. Bar the loss at Issmailia, they have kept clean sheets in each of the other 5 of their last 6 (4 wins and a draw), so they look defensively solid. Enppi are using the remainder of their fixtures to prepare for the cup final (against Zamalek) in 10 days time, and the last time out they beat Ahli "reserves" by 3-0, which could have easily been double ha they use their chances well. A perfectly legal goal was also disallowed for an alleged offside that never was.

gaish maybe 8 full points above Enppi on the table, but the tightest defense in this league has let in 6 goals in the last 2 games. They lost them both of course (1-2 to Ettihad in Alexandria and 2-4 to Issmaili in Issmailia). Gaish have thus practically lost their chance to play on the continental scene next season, for they are 3 points behind both Zamalek and Issmaili, and the 2 will not probably drop any more points.
Finally, Aluminium vs Ahli. This is a game that looks easy to predict on paper, yet in fact is extremely unpredictable. This is because Al-Ahli have not been playing their 1st team since they officially won the title, but have rather been using reserves and U18 players. This has resulted in 2 successive defeats, and Ahli are now 4 games without a win, having not even scored in the last 3.

Aluminium went 5 games without a loss at home (3-2-0) before Enppi visited them and left with a narrow 1-0 win. However, their last game was against Zamalek in Cairo, and they lost badly with 1-5, and with totally nothing to offer especially at the back.

Aluminium now stands only 2 points above the drop zone, and they could be facing a tough situation if Ettisalat manages a win over Moqaweloun and they don’t win today, especially with their next game being against another struggling outfit (Tersana) and their last game being up against a strong side (Gaish).

The one problem Aluminium will face will probably be the inclusion of both Ahmad Bilal and Osama Hosni in the announced traveling squad of Ahli, which means the already weak defence of the hosts (46 goals conceded) could be facing a tough test if the duo start the game.

However, most of Ahli traveling squad are unexperienced still, as Manuel Jose still insists to give his beats players a rest, while a new player has been include in the squad whom is actually U16.

I will give Aluminium the benefit of doubt though, and back them on the handicap. They have managed to draw to Issmaili, and beat both Ettihad and Petrojet of late, and even the loss to Enppi was by only the odd goal, so we will be counting on their home form to prevent an embarrassing heavy defeat to Ahli reserves and youngsters.

The bad news for me (and other punters) is that this game is not available on the market. Not a single bookie has the nerves to put up an offer for this one.