Egypt & African CL

[Youssef]

Next Sunday will fature the 1st game of the African CL group stage between Egyptian giants Ahli & Zamalek. A week later the two go head to head again in the Egyptian Super Cup.

The return leg in the group, and 2 clashes in the league make it at least 5 games between the two this season, but it could be more.

A potential clash in the cup, and IF the two manage to qualify to the African CL final then there will be 2 more games, summing up to 8 games. So, 5 in the minimum, and 8 at max. God help the police!

There are many problems as we speak, and the 1st game is a potential bomb. Both sets of fans are extremely angry with eachothe, and both are angry with the FA, the national coach, and it's going to take a whole lot not to end up with a real disaster in the stands.

Updates later. Just thought I'd post some heads up.

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Hilal - Enyimba
Selection	Home win
Strength	8/10
Date	18/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Not the best of prices, considering the visitors aren’t exactly 2nd level in the continent. In fact, Enyimba won the CL twice in a row before Ahli (Egypt) took over for 2 more years, and finally Etoile (Tunisia) won last year’s title. However, the home side have an amazing home record that almost rules out the possibility of a home losss. Al Hilal reached the semi-final last season in this competition, and this season they are setting their target a notch higher, and rightfully so. They have gone 107 home games (in all competitions) without a single loss. That’s 7 years without a loss at home (Think Chelsea ;-) Al-Hilal (translates Crescent) had their pre-season camp held in Tunisia, and have all their 1st team players ready, except –maybe- for Goodwin. Nigerian duo Cletchy and Youssof Mohammad alongside International Sudan team stars Haitham Mosstafa, Aladdin Youssef and Omar Bakheit are all on a good form, and coach Ricardo knows that winning this game could be the key to reaching the semi-final once more. Enyimba are also a team that’s too tough to break at home, meaning both these teams will have a theoretical advantage at the start, but there could be drawn games that reshape the power balance of the group, and Enyimba will surely be targeting one here to strengthen their chances of progressing to the semis. Although Enyimba crushed Club Africain 5-1 in Aba, Nigeria, they still lost 1-2 in Tunisia in the return leg. Some may argue they were already through after the first leg, and they maybe right, but the point is Enyimba lose much of their strength when on the road, much like most other African squads. Arriving to Sudan after a closed camp, newly appointed managing duo; Austine Equavon and Ike Shorunmu promised their team will give verything they have to bring in the trophy for the 3rd time. Eguavon is an ex-international player whom was in the winning squad of CAN 1994 title, as well as the 1st Nigerian appearance in a World Cup finals in the USA in the same year. The two squads have never met eachother before, so there’s no H2H record to rely on, but the home side’s record at home is quite clearly an indication that they should do just enough to win the 3 points from the opening game.

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Cotonsport - Mazembe
Selection	Over 2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	19/07/2008
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Although Coton lost 1-2 in both away games in the last 2 qualifying rounds, their results at home made sure they easily reached the groups stage. 5-0 over Gombe Utd and 3-0 over JS Kabylie shows this tam is very strong at home. However, Mazembe have almost always been able to score on the road in the African continental tournaments. Their record is 4-1-4 in the last 9 away games, including a 1-2 loss vs Ittihad (Lybia) in the last qualifying round, and a 1-0 win over FC 105 Libreville in the round before. They have failed to score in only 2 of these 9 games. Mazembe though barely made it through vs Ittihad, as they won 1-0 at home and only progressed courtesy of the away goal rule. They would have to be at their very best to challenge the Cameroonians in their own den, especially with Cotton almost guaranteed to lose all 3 away games, since both other teams in the group are very strong at home, and Coton is always vulnerable away. Coton is known to score many goals at home though, and eventhough Mazembe may hit once, they are most likely going to be on the receiving side in 2 or 3 accassions. In other words, this game is likely to end 3-1 for the home side (Coton) and thus over 2.5 and both teams to score are also valid bets alongside the home win. This group featured one game already played on Friday where Hilal (Sudan) beat Enyimba (Nigeria) 3-2. It was a difficult win, but it shows that Hilal are still likely to win all 3 home games and will most likely need a draw in one away game to guarantee reaching the semis for the 2nd season running. Enyimba on the other hand proved to be still a very tough team, and are likely to win all home games as well. For either cotton and/or Mazembe to stand a chance they will need to also win at home and try to get something on the road. Thus this seems to be a decisive game albeit it being the opening game for both squads. If Coton wins as expected, Mazembe are already out, because they simply cannot collect a point in either Sudan or Nigeria. A point here though and they stand a very good chance since they will need to win their home games and qualify. For Coton, anything but a win is unacceptable for the same reasoning. They are much too vulnerable on the road that they must win all 3 home games and hope to get something precisely from Mazembe in DR Congo. Although Hilal and Enyimba are likely to be the top uo raching the semi final, both Mazembe and Coton still have a fighting chance, at least in theory, and must work on it, so this game will most probably be as thrilling and entertaining as yesterday’s game. It's really strange how the bookies are totally ignoring this game. 6 hours ago I could not find a single bookie offering lines for it, and now only BWin have it listed. The odds on the home win are rediculous (1.40), and no odds on "both to score" which leaves me with only the Over 2.5 goals option.

[thecelt1974]

Youssef, great analysis!! Thanks for your posts, they are VERY insightful.

My bookie doesn't have the Coton-Mazembe match either.

[Youssef]

TY thecelt :-)

No proper analysis for Ahli vs Zamalek tonight, but I'll tell you this: The most likely outcome is the draw. neither side would want to start their season losing to their arch-rivals. Furthermoe, the domestic super cup is 7 days later, and is also between the two, thus they would both rather "test" eachother here and go for the win in the next one. Of course, a draw is not the very best of outcomes, since they laso have ASEC and Dynamos in the group (to start in less than an hour), but I would also expect them to draw in harare, so all 4 squads will probably end up on 1 pt each today.

We do not expect to see entertaining football toady. The match is very tense as usual, and all we would hope for is a "clean" game for the benifit of our national squad.

P.S. I'm not putting up the nalysis because I fear I'm caught up in my own aspirations for a better zamalek this season. I may also be affected by the 3-4 last seasons failures so I'm excluding the whites from winning, which could be a mistake. In sum, the game is very much open to anyone's guess, but I'm thinking if either should be given the choice of a guaranteed point or a 50-50 win/loss they'd go for the former without a question.

[thecelt1974]

Very wise Youssef, can't let your heart effect your analysis.

Looking forward to your future posts!

[Youssef]

Actually this is the African Confederations Cup, but I don't want to start another thread.

The Egyptian squad of Harass El Hodoud is looking forward to build their name in Africa after they have settled in the Egyptian premier league for several seasons. They are a step away from reaching the final eight (the groups stage) of the African Confederations Cup, and according to coach Tareq El Ashri they want to follow the footsteps of Ahli, Zamalek, Issmaili and Moqaweloun whom have all won continental titles before.

However, Harass are actually playing for the 1^st time at this level, and their lack of experience could still be the biggest obstacle they are facing.

Although Harass are considered one of the stronger squads in Egypt, they are not that popular either. Yes, the armed forces are backing them (They are the coast gurads/border line gurads squad) but that’s about it. In other words, they have no real roots amnongst common fans, and in order to have the stands filled they are considering opening the doors for free in this game.

Mamelodi Sundowns have a bigger name in the continent than Harass for sure. However, the whole of South African football organization is not at the very best at the moment. We all saw Bafana Bafana in Ghana 2008, and we all know they’re having problems in the joint qualifiers for CAN 2010/WC 2010. Of course they are already qualified for the WC finals being the organizing nation, but being on the verge of missing out on even reaching the final satges of the qualifiers for Angola 2010 is a major embarrassment.

Travelling to Alex, Sundowns only have a one goal advantage to rely on. 1-0 at home is by no means a reliable scoreline to take to the return leg, and n fact- it was the same result they managed over Al Hilal (of Sudan) in the African CL roun of 16, although that was after losing 2-4 in Khartoum. On aggregate they lost 3-4 and thus were redirected to this competition.

The South Africans will certainly be looking for a goal to make matters harder for their hosts, but Harass’ defence is a stiff one and it won’t be easy for Sundowns to score. Furthermore, Harass are the kin of team that doe not lose temper or consentration as time goes by without scoring. They are hard workers, yet patient.

I would suggest that the Egyptian squad should prove too strong for their visitors to handle, and would expect the home side to produce a comfortable win that takes them into the final 8 for the 1^st time in their history.

I know the odds won’t set your apetite on fire, but that’s about as good as it gets and I rate these odds to be a “fair” offer.

Home win @ 1.50 (with the "dreaded" BWin)

[Youssef]

Another one of the African Confederations Cup here. One of Tunisia’s traditional biggest clashes has been assigned to be played in the African Confederations Cup, as Esperance is set to host Etoile Sahel in the return leg of the round of 16 square off. The 1^st leg ended in Etoile’s victory by 2-0, which puts Esperance in a difficult situation chasing a 3 goal margin win in order to qualify for the groups stage.

Esperance of course won the Tunisian Cup final over their rivals early in July by 2-1. A repeat of that score line though would only be in Etoile’s favour.

In that game, Int’l Moroccan striker Hicham Boucherouane scored a brace to secure his side’s 3^rd consecutive cup title. It was also their 13^th overall, making them the countries most cup title winners. They are also Tunisia’s most league title winners with 20 titles.

The game though left some unhappy memories to many fans, as about 3,000 angry fans rushe into the pitch after the game, and some others set cars parke outside on fire. According to them, German referee Mayer ruled out 3 goals for Etoile. One was for an alleged offsie, another for a handball, and a 3^rd for a foul committed against Esp0erance’s keeper. They did not seem to acknowledge their only goal on score was also a handball that the referee failed to see.

Etoile surprisingly lost last season’s league title as well in the final round to Club Africain, so it would truly hurt if they would also get knocked out of this competition, throwing away a 2 goals lead.

For Esperance, this could be a sign of a new era. One that brings them back some of their lost glory of the last decade. Back in the 90’s of the 20^th century, Esperance were one of the top teams not only in Tunisia, but all over Africa. They seem to have lost their spark somewhere along the path, but seem to be working on getting inm back.

Esperance made it through the last round by overcoming Togo’s US Masseda by 6-2 on aggregate. They had lost in Lome by 0-1, but won at home by a massive 6-1.

Etoile is last season’s African CL title holders, but they have been eliminated in the round of 16 by Dinamos (of Zimbabwe) after losing both home and away legs by 0-1. The game in Tunisia showed Etoile had problems converting chances into goals, while some real bad luck was also playing against them.

Considering the situation an atmosphere, I would expect Esperance to win the game. However, it may not be by the required number of goals. It should probably be by the od goal, or maybe a 3-1 victory that leaves them out of the competition, but still holing their heads high against one of their traditional rivals.

BWin is offering 1.75 for the home win

[Youssef]

The other two games on Saturday will feature Marreikh (of Sudan) hosting Moroccan outfir Olympique Khouribga, while Sfaxien (Tunisia) is hosting South Africa's Platinmium Stars.

Both hosts managed 2-2 away draws that set them both in pole position, and with marriekh being last season's finalist I would expect them to be the more likely side to produce a convincing win.

However, BWin thinks Sfaxien have slightly better chances, offering 1.40 for their win vs 1.45 on Marriekh.

IMHO, this is due to BWin taking the countries of these teams into consideration. Surely Tunisia vs South Africa is a better shot than Sudan vs Morocco.

What they fail to realise though, is that Marriekh makes up for almost half of the Sudanese int'l squad, while the majority of Morocco's int'l players are European based.

In short, maybe a treble on Marriekh, Sfaxien and Harass is the way to go, while Esperance can only be taken as a single bet due to the overheated atmosphere surrounding the game.

Good Luck

[davidmphill]

Great work as ever dude.

[thecelt1974]

Thanks for the hard work Youssef!! Great analysis!


David, Cymru am byth!!

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by thecelt1974

David, Cymru am byth!!

As always!

[Youssef]

TY guys.

Harass & Sfaxien both won 2-0, while both Marriekh (at home) and Etoile (away) managed precious 0-0 draws. 2 out of 4 match results, but 4 out of 4 qualified squads.

3 more games on Sunday, plus the Egyptian Super Cup. Stay tuned.

[Youssef]

Kotoko Asante is the Ghanaian league winner of 07/08 seasosn. Although the season has yet to finish, they are officially crowned champions, thus will be playing in the CAF CL version of 2009. However, in 2008 they have been an entrant of the African Confederations Cup by default based on their result on the 06/07 finish in Ghana’s domestic league.

Traditionally, Asante Kotoko (pronounced “Ashanti”) are one of the strongest teams in the continent, having won several continental titles in the 80’s and early 90’s. Their home pitch is a fortress where most African squads fear to travel to, and their fans are quite a motivation for the team.

However, the decline of many of Africa’s traditional big squads has caught up to Kotoko, and they are currently no longer considered that lethal, although mnot to be taken lightly either.

In the previous round, Kotoko lost 0-2 away to Nigerian outfit Dolphin. Back at home, they were able to overturn the deficit by winning 4-1, an indication that they are still a force to be rccone in Komasi.

Al-Ittihad (of Libya) were redirected to this tournament from the CAF CL after having tied 2-2 on aggregate to Mazembe (DR Congo) in the round of 16. A 2-1 home win proved insufficient for them to each the groups stage as they lost 0-1 away in the return leg.

Generally speaking, Libyan squads do not do well in continental champoionships. They lack the necessary experience to go all the way, although they may cause some hardships to unalarmed sides or smaller squads.

The Baba Yara stadium in Komasi thus holds the aspirations of Kotoko reaching the final 8 in this tournament, but in order to do that they will have to overcome the minor-deficit of a 1-2 everse conceded in Tripoli 2 weeks ago.

The Porcupine Warriors of Kotoko keeper said “It is a fact that we played well and scored an away goal to our credit in Tripoli. But in as much as football remains unpredictable, we must do away with complacency and rather stay focused for the match ahead because it is the ultimate”.

He also thinks the absence of both Osei Kuffour and Samuel Inkoom will have a minor effect on his team, as –although he acknowledges the importance of the absent skipper- he also thinks Kotoko is not built around certain individuals, but rather rely upon team play.

As for Ittihad, they are on a 7 games unbeaten run, but 6 of these games were in the Libyan domestic league (5 wins and a draw). As mentioned before, th Libyans are usually vulnerable in continental tournaments, and especially on the road, and given Kotoko’s unbeaten record at home that extends for well over a year (last home defeat in April 2007), and over 17 games (16-1-0) it is clear why the home side shoul be fancie here, and on good odds too.

It was 1.70 for the home win (BWin) yesterday, but has dropped to 1.60 by now.

[Youssef]

Having learnt my lesson from yesterday, the ties that produced draws in the 1st leg cannot be bet on with confident in the return leg. Marriekeh took advantage of the 2-2 away draw thus 0-0 at home was enough for them.

Today we have Les Astres Douala (Cameroon) hosting JS Kabylie (Algeria) with the game in Algeria having ended 1-1. It's uncertain which of these two should avance to begin with as they are closely matched, so no bet here. (For those interested in odds movement, they have dropeed from 1.50 to 1.40 over the last 24 hrs).

Going the other way are the odds on Djoliba (Mali) vs Club Africain (Tunisia). The odds have moved from 1.60 to 1.75 on the home win, yet I'm still considering the away win/draw (double chance) to be the value bet.

Club Africain have just won the Tunisian League title last month, and are currently on a good form. Djoliba though are not bad themselves, and the goalless draw in the 1st leg is proof enough. However, Club Africain seem to be the more experienced side, and the bigger name as well, and 0-0 at home isn't exactly a disaster since any scoring draw here will see them advancing, so they are the ones in the driving seet IMHO.

Djoliba davanced to this phase overcoming Niger's Mangasport 5-2 on aggregate. They won 2-1 away and 3-1 at home, but M
11 games at home have produced 11 wins for the Tunisians before Djoliba managed to hold them to a draw, which -again- sends the message that Djoliba are not to be underestimated.

They're also irreliable on the road, sending contradicting signs through a win over Esperance in the 1st of May (league) just 4 days after crashing 1-5 in Nigeria to Enyimba (African CL).

Clearly I would rather not recommend a bet on this game, although I myself will be on the double chance.

Good Luck

[Youssef]

Ahli & Zamalek square off again today in the Egyptian Super Cup, just a week after they had locked horns in the African CL 1st game of the groups stage.

The 2-1 victory of Ahli last weekend maybe seen as a strong indication (Bet365 go only 1.57 on the home win), but far from it I say.

In fact, the new signings of both sides will make a big differnce to the starting line-ups, along with some absentees expected tonight.

For starters, the CAF rules allow teams to add only 5 more players in the middle of the season (i.e. in teh summer break), thus -for example- Zamalek could not add Brazillian left winger Ricardo, holding midfielder Allaa Kamal, and attacking midfielder Mahmoud Samir to their African list. However, all of these will be available tonight as this is nominally the mark of the new domestic season beginning.

Out goes Gamal Hamza (whom score the lonely goal last Sunday) and Ahmad Ghanem (whom provied the assist) both on a one game suspension. Also Mohammad Abul Ela is domestically suspened for 4 months, while Shikabala has another full ban for 4 months by FIFA. The latter didn't take part in last Sunday's game though.

In comes central defender Amr El Safti, whom have misse last weekend clash on 2 yellow cards. It's unclear though if he should be playing or benched in favouyr of Tunisian Int'l Wissam El Abdi.

It is alos unclear whether Waheed should continue under the bar or if Monsef will be given the nod in this game. However, Hani Sa'eed is a certain starter, whether it be in the defence libero or midfiled libero position. Ahmad Magdi is also a starter in either position (i.e. if Hani plays in teh back Magdi will be in the midfiled and vise versa). Mahmoud Fath'Alla is also a confirmed starter in the centre of Zamalek's defence.

On the sides, Mohammad Abdallah will once again start on the right back, since Ahmad Ghanem is out. Ricardo is more likely to start on the left, although Osama Hassan is also a candidate due to the latter being defensively better.

Skipper Ayman Abdel Aziz in the holding midfield position along with Magdi/Hani and Alaa Kamal OR Mahmoud Samir. Upfront, Abdel Halim Ali's absence -due to injury- leaves no choice but for Agogo to start alongside Sherif Ashraf, with Mosstafa Gaafar on the bench, and no more strikers available.

Defender Amr Adel also is available (was not available in Africa) ut is unlikely to take part in the game.

Obviously, Zamalek is more concerned about the defensive roles of the majority of players. Only 3- players can paly an effective role in the offence.

Ahli have won 12 of the last 13 H2H clashes with Zamalek, with the remaining game being a draw, thus Ahli has a major psychological advantage, and the players and fans alike are full of confidence.

With the exception of dual nationality holder Yasser El Mohammady (Qatari-Egyptian) noone else comes into contention whom have not been available in Africa.

Jose has announce Abu Treika unfit still to join the squad today, and also Emad Met'eb has been declared injured, and so is Gilberto.

Thus Amir Abdel hamid uner the bar with Wael Gom'aa, Shady Mohammad, and Ahmad El Sayyed in the defence. Barakat on the right side and Moawwad on the left side, Ahmad Hassa, Hossam Ashour and Anis Boujelban in the midfield. Upfront duo will b Flavio and one of the trio: Osama Hossni, Ahmad belal and Yasser El Mohammady

A quick look shows also Ahli have 2 defenders in their midfield, but have more options upfront. The drawback is they have no eserve defenmders with the exception of youngster Mohammad Samir. Non of the other new signings in Hossain Ali, Ahmad Hassan (striker, NOT Int'l skipper whom IS in contention) and hani El Egaizy made the 18 players list.

An overwhelming feeling of satisfaction is going on between Zamalek fans based on the team not looking bad last week. The two goals conceded werwe fromn direct individual mistakes, but overall the team seemed to hold it's own and be closely competitive with their rivals. They have big hope for the new commers to make the difference.

As such, and consiering the major changes (probably 3 and up to 4) in the starting XI of Zamalek, vs one likely change in Ahli's starting XI (Met'eb is out) I would expect this game to be even more close than the previous one in terms of possession and midfiled control. It may once again come down to individual mistakes/brilliance to resolve the situation. Also, this a cup game, meaning extra-time and PK shoot-outs if it stays level, which could mean each team will try to preserve some energy for a possible extended time.

I'm going to take this 2.06 on Zamalek double chance offered by BWin. Bet365 has 11 markets open for this game, but -unfortunately- no double chance market!!

[thecelt1974]

any thoughts on the matches today Youssef?