Weekend English Conference Thread - 13th March

[GETT1NLOTS]

Guide Prices

Nationwide Conference
13 Mar-15:00 Burton Albion v Northwich 1.44 3.75 6.50
13 Mar-15:00 Chester v Morecambe 1.44 3.75 6.50
13 Mar-15:00 Exeter v Aldershot Town 2.20 3.40 2.75
13 Mar-15:00 Farnborough v Dagnham & Red. 2.50 3.20 2.50
13 Mar-15:00 Forest Green v Shrewsbury 2.87 3.20 2.20
13 Mar-15:00 Gravesend v Barnet 2.62 3.20 2.37
13 Mar-15:00 Hereford v Acc. Stanley 1.61 3.40 5.00
13 Mar-15:00 Scarborough v Leigh RMI 1.73 3.25 4.33
13 Mar-15:00 Stevenage v Tamworth 1.61 3.40 5.00
13 Mar-15:00 Telford v Halifax 1.91 3.40 3.40
13 Mar-15:00 Woking v Margate 1.61 3.40 5.00

[dave]

Ryman League

Grays (1.33) are a very good side at home, and have picked up 19 points from their last 7 home games, the 2 dropped being a 1-1 draw with runaway leaders Canvey. Aylesbury are a very poor side, and should have no chance.

If you read my Ryman tips often, you will know about Hornchurch's amazing home record. It's now just 1 defeat in their last 18 in all competitions, and that was 1-0 to possible semi-finalists Tranmere in the FA Cup. They are 1.72 to see off Basingstoke who, although a decent side away from home, have now lost 4 in a row.

Nothing positive to contribute from me, I'm afraid.
Halifax's away form is pretty much well known right across the planet and tomorrow they travel to Telford who, I understand, have a Trophy (Vase?) replay against Shrewsbury in the offing.

That might be more interesting for the home side who's existence in the Conference is hardly under threat playing against a Town side who will surely win one of these "nothing" matches?

Overall it is a poor coupon for the conference, with little value.

However, it may be worth taking a look at Forest Green Rovers to upset "mighty" Shrewsbury at the lawn this weekend.

Things are looking good in Gloucestershire, which is often the case at this time of year, with a recent good run making FGR one of the inform teams. Indeed, the 3rd best team in March and the 7th best in February.
Currently sitting in their highest league table position of the season, much can be put down to the influencial young midfielder, Scott Rodgers now playing in a supporting role just behing the front men...and yes it is working , 4 wins , 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 7 along with 13 goals make them a great price at 2/1 in some layers (Bet365/Blue Square). William Hill have the match priced at 6/4 arguable more realistic.

Forest Green have already defeated Accrington Stanley, Stevenage and Chester City at the Lawn this season and this, almost local derby, could be a tough one for the Shrews.

Shrewsbury's recent form looks good on paper, 4 wins out of 4, but all at home and their last 2 matches tell a different story, a 5.0 hammering at Dagenham (who then let in 9 at home to Hereford!) and a 0.0 draw at Halifax, you know what mdp thinks of them! is hardly convincing, recent draws at lowly Leigh and Tamworth indicate to me that Shrews are priced up on reputation alone

points ration 0-5

1 point on Forest Green 2/1 Bet365

mdp

Chippenham are an absolutely massive 9/2 to win at HOME to Crawley on Saturday.
Crawley lead the section and an amazing 2.1 home win over title contenders Weymouth last week in front of a crowd of 4,500 has surely sent the layers loopy on this one. By most accounts Crawley were slightly fortunately at home to Weymouth last weekend, and their midweek drubbling of bottom club Chelmsford cannot really be taken as evidence against what is definately the weakest defence in the section.

Chippenham have struggled this year, near the foot of the Southern Premier, having lost the influencial manager Tommy Saunders, they have recently picked up some form and there is no-way they should be such a high price. Unbeaten in 4 matches they have hit a rich vein of form and having seen them a couple of times this year I can say that they are not easy to beat at Hardenhuish park....Charlie Griffin has come back having left Swindon and his power up front is meaning that things are starting to sort themselves out in Wiltshire. Last week saw the team pull away from the relegation zone.

Yes Crawley are good, yes they are probably the best team in the section, but form remains erratic. Recent away defeats at Dorcester and Grantham and a home draw with Moor Green are hardly inspirational. Chippenham's ground is a far cry from the impressive set up in Crawley, but this is Southern League football and Crawey could be in for a fight tommorow.

points ratio 0-5

1 point on a Chippenham win 9/2 Bet365
plus saver on draw

mdp

Hope you're right with Forest Green MDP,

Im going to take another improved team of late in Gravesend, i have a feeling they could upset Barnet at home this weekend who according to BBC sport will be resting a few players who have niggling injuries. The title is beyond Barnet now and i think they are preparing for the play offs, still dangerous though so i have taken Evs on Canbets AH 0, they are best priced at 2.75 to win the game outright.

Worcester spanked Dover at home last week, i have also taken them to continue their good home form against poor travellers Grantham. They are 1.53 at Bet365

Punter66 - I take your point on Worcester, certainly I saw a far better Worcester team at Tiverton a couple of weeks back than the shambles I saw at the corresponding match earlier in the seaon, however what stopped me going for them was the fact that Grantham have only really lost form in the last couple of games since loosing their manager to Nuneaton and now find themselves in a position that they really should not be considering their squad...I am expecting a backlash soon and dont think 1.5 is real value, but good luck anyway.

I feel that the Southern premier is a really dangerous league to bet on this season, everyone seems capable of beating everyone in what I feel is a pretty awful section this season. Many teams seemed so stressed at the thought of not making conference 2 that every match is like a cup final. Only when I see fantastic VALUE like Chippenham IMO to I take a punt.

mdp