Sunderland relegation?

[Complyordie]

Scanning the Hill's prices to finish bottom 3 in EPL and Sunderland at 9-2 are beginning to look appetising. Kenwyne Jones is out for at least 2 months (my suspicion is that is very optimistic considering the knee injury sustained v. England) and although Keane kept them up last term he had Jones and had to spend £40 m or there abouts to do so.

This season they will begin with no Jones, Jonny Evans will return to Manchester United and Keane even admits last seasons squad was 'limited'. I know he will probably have money to spend again - a replacement for Jones is a must, but his spending last term struck me as less than spectacular as the only real successes were Jones and Gordon (if I had £10 m I could find a good keeper!).

I think Fulham under Hodgson will be fine providing trigger happy Al Fayed doesn't sack him for no reason (as he did with Coleman). Hull/West Brom seem to be giving themselves a chance by signing some players up but no one seems to be heading to the stadium of light.

What do others think? The 'keane being a winner' factor makes me think surely they'll be ok but I really aren't convinced by his record in the transfer market (McShane, Halford, Russell Anderson, Chopra, Prica even Richardson and Reid to an extent) and believe without Jones they could be dragged into trouble as the squad is very thin.

Notice how Reading went down last term - could Sunderland not have similar second season syndrome particular without there talented man from T & T?

[aliando]

i agree with sunderland being potential relegation candidates, but that 9/2 looks poor value imo. There should be no real surprises down the bottom as money will keep a number of clubs mid table.

middlesbro, to me at this point, look the border line - below it teams like bolton and wigan should be wary of dropping down, along with the 3 promoted sides. the only team that may be dragged in (and this is gonna be unpopular!!) is west ham - they didnt cause many problems last year and have certainly not progressed thourgh the summer as other clubs around them have. However, at 10/1 at best, again, the value isnt there imo.

Again, I agree that fulham shouldnt have the same problems next term and should do enough to keep themselves safe - i looked at the handicapping odds for them and could get around +46 (i think it was) which has some appeal for each way. Havent acted on this though as I'm generally a little wary of these types of bets.



trouble is at this stage, there are so many uncertainties regarding transfers, its a little bit hit and miss - luck will play a huge part at this point. A few clubs have the potential to make a couple of signings that will help them stay well clear. Similarly, a few clubs selling the wrong players and...bang!

[SecondSight]

Sunderland Relegation

For : Picked up alot of points in injury time last season
Lost their best defender in Evans
Jones out for at least 2 months of the season
Second season syndrome
Limited prem quality in the squad
Owners reluctant to invest own cash due to serious downturn in construction in Ireland

Against : Large squad
They have been bidding for alot of players
Some premiership experience
Good support
Resources higher than many
Keane has good record to date and good chairman support

On balance I expect them to stay up with a couple less points than last season.

9/2 is not value.

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by aliando

the only team that may be dragged in (and this is gonna be unpopular!!) is west ham - they didnt cause many problems last year and have certainly not progressed thourgh the summer as other clubs around them have. However, at 10/1 at best, again, the value isnt there imo.

We have effectively signed Bellamy (8 games last season), Dyer (2 games)and Faubert (7 games). Bellamy scored two tonight in their first friendly of the season. While it may be said that we didnt pull up any trees after reaching the 40 point mark, it must also be realised that up until that stage we had played fairly well for a team down to its bare bones. While we have not gone mad in the markets, I feel one or two new faces will come in. Still I'll take wins over Liverpool and United and a double over Blackburn any day - 10/1 no value at all. Id really need to be looking at 20's for that.

On a personal note, I'll be having a cheeky punt on the North East teams but NOT Sunderland. Boro at 10's and Newcastle at 23.0 look interesting but purely for entertainment value!! I firmly believe the bottom 4-5 will be as the Bookies have it priced

[aliando]

Originally Posted by friskyfitz

We have effectively signed Bellamy (8 games last season), Dyer (2 games)and Faubert (7 games). Bellamy scored two tonight in their first friendly of the season. While it may be said that we didnt pull up any trees after reaching the 40 point mark, it must also be realised that up until that stage we had played fairly well for a team down to its bare bones. While we have not gone mad in the markets, I feel one or two new faces will come in. Still I'll take wins over Liverpool and United and a double over Blackburn any day - 10/1 no value at all. Id really need to be looking at 20's for that.

On a personal note, I'll be having a cheeky punt on the North East teams but NOT Sunderland. Boro at 10's and Newcastle at 23.0 look interesting but purely for entertainment value!! I firmly believe the bottom 4-5 will be as the Bookies have it priced

not convinced about fulham being down there, but otherwise, agree that the bookies seem spot on pricewise.

with regards to the west ham 'signings' - what are the chances of them staying fit? I agree that the hammers have potential to be ok (and really speaking should be mid-table) but I'm still not convinced by curbishly as manager there and a bad start may be difficult to retrieve.

I think newcastle will be ok - wont be any great shakes but keegan at least has motivational skills to achieve mid-table even if he lacks the tactical skills to achieve something meaningful. middlesbro is an interesting one - i laughed at southgate being appointed but he over-achieved my expectations. this will be the test season though - can he improve or will he be found out....?



if i had to stick my neck out and name 3 teams - stoke, hull, bolton. no-brainers for the promoted teams where the jump can be expected to be too high. Cant see bolton doing well at all and megson wont be good enough to see them safe - only long term doubt would be megson sacked, ? allardyce reinstated...?

[friskyfitz]

Bolton is a tricky one to say the least and I had Wigan in there until they signed Zaki and moved for Johnson. Zaki will score the goals and Wigan's defence isnt as bad as some of the others. They will do just enough to be safe. Im expecting big things from Zamora at Fulham so I too think they will do enough....just!!!

Hull, Stoke and WBA simply dont have the quality to do a West Ham or Reading in their first season back. I actualy reckon that the signings of Boetang and Warner could be liabilities for Hull.. Stoke seem to have Carson today and he will be badly needed.

Back to topic, Sunderland are 6's now with SKYBET. If they dont spend wisely in the next 2-3 weeks then I expect them to actually become a bet but sadly the odds will reflect that. That said, If I got 8/1 or 9/1 then there would be value. A few have traded on Betfair already and over £500 at odds of 5.60 with £33 at 5.40. Not good value for someone there.

Guess we'll have to wait for another 2-3 weeks to see...

[WHUPUNTER]

Ali, we finished 10th with half a squad matey. Cardiff couldnt manage 10th in the Championship with a full squad. Like Frisky says we have Bellamy, Faubert and Dyer back and it could be a decent season if they stay injury free.

[Complyordie]

Reckon Newcastle/West Ham will be fine but Blackburn are a definate outsider here. New manager who has done well in the lower leagues but nothing in the top flight arrives at a club where many of the better players seem keen to move on. 11-1 to me might not be too bad as Incey is going to struggle to keep his stars.

The situation that suprises me most is Brad Friedel being so keen to move on. The American keeper who has been absolute quality for Rovers seems determined to join villa. That alone would be a loss but with Samba wanted at Man City, Bentley at Tottenham and Villa and potentially Santa Cruz by Arsenal.

If Santa Cruz starts at Ewood next year then surely they'll be ok but with talk of Fowler coming you wonder if Ince really has a grasp of what is required in the premiership now. This Ince situation reminds me slightly of when Brian Kidd got appointed and was tipped to do well.............

[SecondSight]

Sunderland have bid £20m for 4 Spurs players which suggests funds are around to keep them well out of relegation.

I would want something like 7/1 to be interested at present

[Complyordie]

although kaboul's agent has since commented `Younes wouldn't join Sunderland even if there was an earthquake. We have more interesting options than Sunderland. Don't even think about it.'

Clearly keane has a job selling Sunderland this summer to new recruits.

[paulie walnuts]

signing spurs rejects is never a good idea!

[garyfinny]

I think that all these teams are playing for one relegation spot; can't see Hull or Stoke having the required quality to stay up.

West Brom have the best chance and have had previous Prem experience but probably need to sign a bit more quality.

Sunderland clearly have the cash as demonstrated last season. Despite survival, I think that they had a poor season. If you had told any Sunderland fan at the start of the season that they would only get 39 points, I think they would be disappointed.

I feel that the Spurs signings will improve them - Malbranque being a much underrated player. I honestly think the Kaboul situation can easily be sorted with an extra £10k a week in wages. With rumours of Ramos clearing the decks this is a deal that will happen at some time.

West Ham and Newcastle have enough quality to not get sucked in. Both clubs were extremely ambitious when taken over, with big noises about Champions League but reality seems to have hit and I think both sets of fans will be happy with mid-table. There will be not much pressure on the manager if they can stay between 9th-13th.

I think Blackburn should be ok here. I think that criticism of Ince is unfair, really. The key difference with him and Kidd is that Kidd had never been manager before. Quite a few people have been good as number two but crap as manager such as Tony Adams, Sammy Lee, McLaren, Queiroz, Gorman. Ince has done a great job with two clubs in the lower leagues. I don't remember the same eyebrows being raised when Martin O'Neill did something similar at Wycombe before going to Leicester.

I sense that Wigan, Boro, Bolton and Fulham will be in the most of the season too. Again, there will be quite a gap between the top half and the bottom half.