Scottish Thread 07/08 August

[Norfolk Enchance]

Premier League
7 Aug-12:30 Aberdeen v Rangers 7.50 4.00 1.40
7 Aug-15:00 Dundee v Hearts 2.70 3.20 2.40
7 Aug-15:00 Dunfermline v Dundee Utd 2.10 3.25 3.20
7 Aug-15:00 Hibernian v Kilmarnock 1.83 3.25 4.00
7 Aug-15:00 Livingston v Inverness CT 1.90 3.25 3.75
8 Aug-14:00 Celtic v Motherwell 1.12 7.00 15.00

Division 1
7 Aug-15:00 Airdrie Utd v St Johnstone 2.75 3.50 2.10
7 Aug-15:00 Clyde v Partick 2.50 3.50 2.25
7 Aug-15:00 Hamilton v Raith 1.90 3.50 3.20
7 Aug-15:00 Queen of South v Ross County 2.37 3.50 2.37
7 Aug-15:00 St Mirren v Falkirk 2.50 3.40 2.30

Division 2
7 Aug-15:00 Berwick v Morton 2.50 3.50 2.25
7 Aug-15:00 Dumbarton v Ayr 2.30 3.40 2.50
7 Aug-15:00 Forfar v Brechin 2.75 3.50 2.10
7 Aug-15:00 Stirling v Arbroath 2.10 3.50 2.75
7 Aug-15:00 Stranraer v Alloa 2.10 3.50 2.75

Division 3
7 Aug-15:00 East Fife v Montrose 1.72 3.60 3.75
7 Aug-15:00 Gretna v Albion 1.44 3.75 6.00
7 Aug-15:00 Peterhead v East Stirling 1.20 5.50 9.00
7 Aug-15:00 Queens Park v Cowdenbeath 2.50 3.50 2.25
7 Aug-15:00 Stenhousemuir v Elgin 1.57 3.75 4.50

Prices from Bet365

[Norfolk Enchance]

No form to go on yet, but there's still one or two worthwhile punts I feel. I think there is some value in Skybet offers of 4/7 for Gretna and 2/7 for Peterhead.

Gretna have the best players in the division and should really win it. 4/7 is an attractive price and should they string a few wins together early in the season it will be rare to see them priced that highly at home.

Peterhead are arguably the next best side in the league. East Stirling are undoubtedly the worst (still). 2/7 is a good enough price for me.

[kompressaur]

There's talk today about Morton's top scorer of the past two years Alex Williams leaving and signing for Gretna. Again its just talk but i'd echo what has been said on the Scottish seasonal thread by most and advise folks to take the price on Gretna for the league right now. Maybe Peterhead at 9/2 could still be taken as they should run Gretna closest.

I hear that Gretna are in bother for player poaching with Owen Coyle of Airdrie being involved. Heard he wanted to join Gretna.

Some tight games this week imo but could be interested in Cowdenbeath and Partick.

Albion Rovers got a good win up at French laden Raith last week and were tipped myself and a few other shrewdies Im taking them on the handicap list for the season and that might just be enough for me to leave Gretna alone this week. If i wasnt so influenced by Albion i would have to back Gretna.

Killie's record up at hibs and team news required, Berwick have a good record v Morton but i'm really trying to avoid betting for or against Morton but when you look on how they've played in their last 15 games it won't make nice reading if you a fan of them. I aint.

Only three games really catch my attention for this week ... and all are in the 1st Division.

St Johnstone @ 2.10, Partick @ 2.25 and Hmilton @ 1.90 are all appealing.

Saints (the fake one's ) have added guys like Hannah, Sheerin and Moore and Airdrie have lost Alan Gow. Looks like a tight match, but I do fancy Saints to edge this one.

Partick look a great price as Clyde have been severley weakened this season. The "Bully Wee" have lost many influential players as well as their manager. Partick look in decent shape and I really do expect an away win here, although we have not seen Clyde in a competative match yet!

Hamilton are my last choice. I expect Accies to be a decent side this year as they have added some good players from Clyde like McLaughlin and Keogh. They also have some threatening players like Carrigan and McPhee in their ranks to.

Raith are basically an unknown quantity this season as they whole team has more or less changed. French and Slovakian players (low grade!?!) have been signed by Claude Anelka (just what is he doing @ Raith???), and they got off to a terrible start at home to Albion Rovers 0-2

Hamilton have installed a plastic pitch this season, so that may give them a slight edge also. Again I like the price here of 1.90 as I expect Hamilton to do well at home.

Will provide closer looks at these games as the weekend approaches

quite obviously the hamilton-gretna double is the way to go this weekend

[PompeyPunt]

I can't disagree with the Gretna and Peterhead picks

Last season the Scottish third division was so successful when backing teams under odds of 1.50. I think i posted up some stats to back it up. But over the course of the season, i think only 2 or 3 of about 50 bets lost.

This is because the standard is so poor, you only need 1 or 2 half decent teams, and the league becomes very very predictable.

[kompressaur]

Andy you any idea if Keogh played for Hamilton on Saturday or will be playing this Saturday? I heard he was out injured for a few weeks for the start of the season.

I aint as confident as MarkGarden (welcome Mkt) on the Gretna/Hamilton double as i have doubts about them both. Didnt Raith have a great away record last season? I suppose they are a differant side this year.

They say that Hamilton plastic pitch is almost just like playing on real grass and wont really offer too much of an home advantage. Maybe the continental style will be suited by the nice pitch condition?

If Albion Rovers can go to Raith in the cup and win by 2 quite comfortably also remembering the same squad had the best away record before they collapsed last year due to injury and suspensions. I like Gretna to win but i wouldnt say they are as certain as some may think and might be tempted to chance Albion to upset them. Albion can score goals and still have quality players who could turn it on. Aye i like Albion this year and i wont be backing against them on Saturday.

I remember reading your post Pomp and have to agree with the facts youve stated. To me though there are one or two teams (Cowdenbeath, Albion) that came close to upsetting the applecart and i lost a few 11/2 shots due to bad luck against the run of play.

I can't see too much wrong in Peterhead after tipping them to win at 7/4 against Arbroath on Saturday. East Stirling seem like an improved squad and i always have that 0-0 draw they had up at peterhead 2 seasons ago in my mind after Head needed to win it to go up. I suppose anyhting can happen in footie but i aint for chancing 2/7 this early in the season.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

No Komp, dont say it. East Stirling supplied me with many a laugh last season. The best being against Stirling. I believe they were 2-0 up with about 14 mins to go. Final score? Stirling Albion won 4-2, the last being an own goal and East Stirling got 2 men sent off in those final 14 mins. Now if theres ever been a case of accusing teams of throwing games that one has to be top of the list!!!

[kompressaur]

Aye remember that well Working. I don't think there was anything in it barr total collapse. Think Striling got 3 in last 5 minutes.

I must say there still aint much about imo this week. Could just be a week to watch as there are some pretty tight ties out there and the outcomes will be interesting.

I am tempted by the 2/1 + on Berwick. They have had a good pre-season for what it's worth and it's only a couple of years since they were the third force in this division. They lost wood etc but seem to have not a bad bunch of players again. The thing that makes me wanna back them is their record last season v Morton. Not only did they get results v them i believe that they deserved the points on all occasions. I aint kept abreast of things this week as ive been pumping a large breasted 23yr old all week but anyone know if Williams left for Gretna?

I should put my money where my mouth is over Brechin but their performance v Partick wasnt that good and Forfar players gave 100% v Morton. Who got sent off Byers? Could miss him mind. I could go for Brechin but i aint that confident.

If i backed draws then East Fife v Motrose says draw to me. East Fife have trouble upfront and havent got a goal getter at all. I can see them like Cowdenbeath last season having a few 0-0's. Anyone know a bookie that does over and under in the goal markets for Scots div 3?

[PTDSEI]

Will have a wee bet on Aberdeen @ 7`s to beat Rangers, only cos I`ve a soft spot for the dandies, its live on tv , its the opening day of the season, the Dandies will raise their game against the Gers (as proven last season when it was 1-1 @ Pittodrie).

Sorry PTDSEI but I have to disagree with the Aberdeen bet. Aberdeen have brought in the new management team of Calderwood and Nicholl but other than the signing of Noel Whelan none of the playing staff have changed, in fact they have lost possibly their best midfielder in Heikinnen. Calderwood is a very good manager bit it will take him a VERY long time to turn things around at Pittodrie.

Rangers on the other hand now have probably the best forward pairing in Scotland with Prso and Novo. Rae will add a bit for them in the centre of midfield and the signings of Boumsong (sp?) and Marvin Andrews will suit the long ball game that a lot of the scottish teams play. Rangers will score goals wherever they go this season and I take them to win this one comfortably.

Personally this weekend is a Rangers/Peterhead/Gretna treble.

[mr chips]

Mad Arab, you are indeed mad!

Heikenen is staying. We have brought in Adams and Craig from Motherwell. Severin from hearts and Noel Whelan.

13/2 is massive value! first game and all that. Its a sell out too.

One other wee tip for yous, Bet 265 have priced our Central Defender Zander Diamond at 80/1 2moro get on it. He scored the last time they met. they have priced up Hinds and Prunty ahead of him, both players have left!

[kompressaur]

What do Bet 265 do for the other 100 odd days Mr Chips? Sell ice-cream from a van?

Soz i thought it was funny:o

Good to have the Scottish thread back up and running. It's probably the area of betting where I can say I often have an edge on the bookies in terms of knowledge and 'feel'. Hopefully, I can put my knowledge of the higher leagues to good use here and I'll take on board the thoughts of the guys who specialise in Divisions 2 and 3.

SPL

As I'm at work just now, I'm not able to get in and check any odds. However, that may be no bad thing. I've deliberately avoided other posts on this thread for now so I don't get a look at the odds. I'm going to gather my thoughts for each game now and then see if the odds make a bet worthwhile a bit later. Previously, I've tried to make a case for betting on games because I like the odds from an initial look. Hopefully, some of what I write will be of use to others but primarily, I like to post my thoughts for my own benefit as well.

Aberdeen v Rangers

Two clubs who seem to have a positive feel about them at the moment. Aberdeen poached the management team from Dunfermline in the summer and will be hoping for major improvements upon last season. The signings of Scott Severin from Hearts and Noel Whelan will please the Dons support but Aberdeen lack SPL quality in a lot of other areas. A lot of pressure will be on Russell Anderson and the two new guys to keep the team going. In Aberdeen's favour, these guys will make up the backbone of the side which is exactly how Dunfermline started out under Calderwood. Ian Ferguson was brought in from Rangers and he was the linchpin of the side. Everything went through him. Severin has been brought in to do a similar job at Aberdeen.

The signing of Whelan is a big gamble in my opinion. Outwardly, Whelan has expressed his desire to do well up here and has given the old cliches about the game being tough up here. Privately, I'm still not convinced he fully believes that. If he has the right attitude and uses his experience, he could be a valuable addition to Aberdeen. Despite Calderwood's relatively short spell in charge at Pittodrie, his approach so far has been similar to how he approached the Dunfermline job. Severin fits the midfield type player he seeks to build his team around, whilst Whelan will be the target man who will be tasked with holding up the ball, bringing others into play and generally, creating opportunities for others. At Dunfermline, Calderwood signed the ageing Craig Brewster from Hibs, and he was perfect foil for Stevie Crawford. Brewster made Crawford look good and Crawford made Brewster look good. If Whelan is to be a success, he'll need good players around him as well and I don't think Aberdeen have enough of them at the moment.

Rangers have done well in the transfer market this summer. Whilst I don't think a lot of the players brought in will add to their European prospects, their domestic form should pick up. Marvin Andrews and Jean-Alain Boumsong are two uncompromising centre halfs who will dominate most other teams in the SPL. Rangers were bullied and outfought in many games last year and were too soft at the back. McLeish seems to have recognised that with the signings of these two guys. Alex Rae is in a similar mould and will be a midfield terrier who can really get stuck in. I expect him to do a lot of the dirty work that will allow other players to perform.

Up front, the signings of Novo and Prso give Rangers the wee man/big man act that many teams favour. Prso has proven his quality to an extent in the Champions League and has looked useful in pre-season by all accounts. Novo has great pace and will thrive on the greater number of chances he'll get this season compared to last. The Rangers fans have taken to him already, partly due to his decision to turn down Celtic in favour of Rangers, and this will help him settle.

As far as Saturday's game goes, I fully expect Rangers to come out and try and show Celtic that they won't get an easy ride this season. McLeish must know that he'll be up for the chop if Rangers aren't going well at Christmas. I can't see Aberdeen breaching Rangers defence tomorrow so even one from Novo or Prso should be enough. I expect Rangers to get a good start and pick Aberdeen off as the game progresses. Calderwood is famed for his attacking attitude when his teams go behind, but the reality is, at Dunfermline, we rarely got back into games using any of his tactics. Especially against the Old Firm.

I expect Rangers to roll out comfortable winners tomorrow. 3-0 Rangers.

Celtic v Motherwell

Not really much to say on this one. Celtic should get the victory here with minimal hassle. I do think there will be opportunities to lay Celtic during this season, but not this week. I'm not one form backing teams at ultra short odds and I'm not going to start now. I still expect Celtic to win 3 or 4 nil.

Dundee v Hearts

For some reason, these teams seem to meet each other on the first day of the season quite often. A draw is the usual outcome when these teams meet at Dens Park as Hearts have a tendency to get draws from difficult away fixtures.

Hearts have lost a few payers in the summer but have strengthened with the loan signing of Michael Stewart and Ramon Perriera (sp) from Man Utd and Raith Rovers respectively. Jamie McCallister has been brought in from Livingston to fill the troublesome left back spot. I don't expect Hearts to be any different from the last few seasons. They'll be difficult to beat, very physical and have a strong home record.

Dundee will be boosted significantly by the news they will formally come out of administration at some point today. The players and management will be hugely motivated to get the new era underway with a good performance. Whether Dundee have the players now that can keep the club in the safety of mid table obscurity is another matter.

I can see both teams being happy with a point here. Dundee would love to gather some momentum and push their confidence further. A draw against the widely recognised 3rd best team, would probably be a decent start to their campaign. Hearts on the other hand will be keen to settle into the new season. WIth Mark De Vries out injured, they will be a little light up front. However, they can always sneak a goal somewhere, with set pieces being a particularly dangerous weapon in their armoury.

An interesting match in prospect, but I may take a small dabble on a 1-1 draw.

Dunfermline v Dundee Utd

I could probably write pages and pages of stuff about Dunfermline's close season. We've lost our top scorer for the past 5 seasons, lost a player who was a favourite of many fans (not mine) and also lost our management team. Davie Hay has been brought in to take over from the departed Calderwood and looks to be a sound appointment. First up, he knows the Scottish game very well and will know our players well. Calderwood left citing many reasons, one of which was that he felt he couldn't take Dunfermline any further. I agree to an extent but perhaps Hay is the man to push us closer to Hearts in 3rd position. The re-signing of Derek Stillie keeps stability in defence and there are a number of options up front. It'll be a big season for some of the younger players who may be tasked with becoming more regular first team players. The plastic pitch will still cause controversy but it's still ignored that whilst our home record was good last season, it was better the season before when we played on grass.

Dundee Utd look to be lose to signing Paul Ritchie in time for tomorrow's game and the talk from Ian McCall is that he may start. United have been relatively quiet in the close season having made wholesale changes the season before. Many are tipping them to have a good season now that those changes are settling in. Their home record in the early part of 2004 was very impressive. I think they lost only 1 game in that time.

United's players and management were perhaps the most critical of the pitch last season and have already started moaning about it in preparation for tomorrow. In my opinion, the attitude of their players is perhaps more of a factor in their poor results last year than the pitch itself. The loss of Charlie Miller will be huge as he was a major factor in their good form in the late part of last season.

I expect an exciting game with both teams looking to win. Dunfermline will be keen to kick off the season with a home win to keep the solid record at East End Park going. A win will help the new management team settle in the job and it'll be an opportunity for them to start winning over some fans who aren't so keen on their appointment. The UEFA Cup tie in Iceland next Thursday also provides motivation for players to prove that they deserve to be in the team for the first European game we've played in 35 years.

I'd price Dunfermline at around 1.70 but I expect we'll be higher as per last season and I'll definitely be tempted into a bet if we are. Also, Gary Dempsey is a relatively unknown player and getting on him to score 1st/anytime will be of interest to me as well.

Hibs v Killie

There is an air of optimism surrounding Easter Road at the moment. By all accounts, Hibs played very well during the first half of their most recent pre-season friendly. Supporters who've been to some of their recent games have slowly become happier with the close season appointment of Tony Mowbray after an initial period of discontent. Their intertoto cup campaign didn't go to plan but they were very unprepared for the two matches and I think those can be disregarded.

Killie seem to be going a bit stale under Jeffries at the minute. They don't seem to change much so they are consistently a middle of the table team but they are unable to make the next step which would be to challenge Hearts.

Given that Hibs are under new management, it's difficult to predict how this one would go. Unless Kilmarnock are above 5/2, I'll avoid all bets on this game. Killie may get a small stake if the odds permit.

Livingston v Inverness Caley

Livingston are another club who have had an interesting close season. I think they were left with 4 signed players at the end of last season and new boss Allan Preston has built a new team. Most of the signings consist of SPL journeymen like Jason Dair. They are an unknown quantity however because they have little experience of playing with each other and also because Preston is an untried manager.

Caley will be delighted to be in the SPL and they've nothing to fear having humbled Celtic twice in recent years, beaten Motherwell in the cup last season, and taken Dunfermline to a cup replay before going out. The departures of Paul Ritchie, Bobby Mann and David Bingham will be a blow but in guys like Barry Wilson and Mark Brown, they have a number of excellent players who will cause SPL teams problems. Brown in particular was outstanding during Caley's cup run and his form will have a bearing on how they perform this season.

This is another game that could go any way. Livi would be favourites based upon the clubs recent history but the actual teams that could play on Saturday will be evenly matched. Again, anything at 11/4 or more will be of interest to me with small stakes.

-----

If I get the opportunity later, I'll take a look at the first division. I'll keep a basic record of what my final bets are so will try and get those nailed down tonight and posted up.

[kompressaur]

Good stuff Smoothy (how come you've only got 11 posts btw?)

I'm tempted a bit by Killie like yourself as they seem to do ok v Hibs up at Easter Road last few seasons. I don't know if i fancy them enough to back em mind. One thing i'm pretty sure of is that there will be over 2.5 goals and if my local shop has a goal coupon i'll defo be adding that one.

My only bet tommorow will be a single on Partick Thistle.

Excellent post Smoothy,

I have to whole heartedly agree about Rangers. Apart from being a fan, I can't see anything but a solid win for the Gers. They were hummilated last year and will come out with the bit between their teeth, get stuck in and open with three points IMO. The Dons will improve this season but I think Calderwood knows they'll be lucky to get a point tomorrow.
I seen 4/9 (Hills) for the Gers and I think that will be one of the most generous prices we'll see this season

Long story Komp. Problems logging in etc etc. Had to get a new username on more than one occasion. Not really that interesting.

Right, this weekend's bets...Points ratio of 1 - 20. All prices from Betfair (gross). I'll record any profit as Nett however.

Dundee v Hearts Draw 2 pts @ 3.4

Dunfermline v Dundee Utd 5 pts @ 2.1

Aberdeen v Rangers 6 pts @ 1.47

Airdrie v St Johnstone 1.5 pts @ 2.14

Hamilton v Raith Rovers 2.5 pts@ 1.92

Clyde v Partick 1.5 pts @ 2.06

Gretna v Albion Rovers 5 pts @ 1.47

Total of 23.5 pts staked.

If I get time tomorrow morning, I'll put up some reasoning behind the lower league picks although I can't disagree with much of what's been said already

Ahh Happy days!!!!

A New Season Begins!

Excellent post SmoothPar! I Think your right about the Rangers game. Although the jury is still out on how well they will do challenging Celtic this year, they should be able to handle Aberdeen. As you said they have a much better strike force than last season (Not that that would be hard) and from pre-season results Boumsong seems to have given the defence a bit more steel (though im not entirely convinced about Andrews)

Aberdeen do seem to have a habit of playing harder against the old firm and it is the first game of the season so i'll only be putting on a small bet.

Celtic, again you've got to expect them to win, but last season they dropped points on the first day. (then proceeded to win a record number of consecutive games) Motherwell also have a habit of taking points off the old firm. I've been stung a few times in the past by short odd bets i thought must win so i don't take them up anymore. At the odds offered i wouldn't touch this one with a barge pole.

Im going to stick with small stakes on the first few matches of the season as results can be a bit random at times. Of the other matches being played Partick and Gretna are the other two matches that appeal for reasons that have already been covered by other posters.

Right now it looks like my bets will be a Rangers/Gretna Double and a Single on Partick.

[AJ]

There does seem to be a few good bets today.

Peterhead at home should be rock solid, as should Gretna.

I think Rangers will win today, although it's always a hard away for them, bit of value in the away I think.

I have a bit of a fancy for dumbarton at home to Ayr. Good home record and Ayr don't look so clever in pre season.

Apologies Mr Chips. My first post for ages and made to look like a tube!!!!

You are indeed correct about Aberdeen's signings. Think I got caught in a time warp yesterday! I do still think that with the signings Rangers have made they will be far too strong for Aberdeen today and think a 0-2 or 1-3 is likely.

Elsewhere in the SPL I won't be touching anything this weekend. I am tempted to have a little nibble on Dundee United (my own team, sorry smooth par!). I don't think the loss of Charlie Miller will have as big an effect as many predict. Mark Kerr came on leaps and bounds last year and along with Derek McInnes in the centre of midfield could form a great partnership. the two wingers of Robson and McLaren have been excellent in pre-season and provided a lot of ammunition for the front two, Grady scoring 5 in pre-season. If we could get the defence sorted out, possibly Ritchie could be the answer, then I see no reason why we can't get off to a flying start.

After all tht though it takes a helluv a lot for me to back my own team with money!!