Scotland » SPL » Feb 10th

[Spooner]

Wednesday 10 February 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Celtic v Hearts (19:45 GMT)	1.37	5.3	10.5	101.38 %
	Dundee United v Hamilton Academical (19:45 GMT)	1.59	4	8.5	99.66 %
	Falkirk v Kilmarnock (19:45 GMT)	2.52	3.4	3.05	101.88 %
	Hibernian v Aberdeen (19:45 GMT)	1.91	3.5	4.9	101.34 %
	Motherwell v Rangers (19:45 GMT)	7.5	4.33	1.56	100.51 %
	St Mirren v St Johnstone (19:45 GMT)	2.44	3.45	3.1	102.23 %

[Scotlandspunter]

Hello gents, early pick for me on Wednesday's SPL card..


Motherwell V Rangers - Motherwell win @ 7.2 (Betfair) 4/10


In my opinion this price on Motherwell at home is too high. I have watched Rangers alot this season, even though they sit 10 points clear in the title race, they are just not that talented a side. In my opinion, the reason they are so far ahead is a result of having probably the best manager for an SPL team in charge and a slice of luck.

How many times this season have we seen the opposition have more chances, corners, possession etc but Rangers still sneak a cheeky we winner? Yes, some may argue this is the sign of a Championship winning team, it's hard to argue with that, but I just feel they are no where near good enough to make a team like Motherwell 7.2 ay home to beat them, they are beatable and they will be beaten again this season, I am pretty convinced on that.

At the weekend Rangers were held to a 0-0 with St Mirren (A team lower than Motherwell in terms of ability in my opinion), I read a stat somewhere that St Mirren had considerably more shots and chances than Rangers but just couldnt take them. The game on Wednesday night is at Fir Park, it's on TV and Motherwell and their fans will be right up for this one. They are still pushing for a top 4 place and continued that push with a good home win over Hamilton at the weekend. They are on a 5 match unbeaten run in the league, having picked up impressive 3-0 victories away to Aberdeen and Kilmarnock, whilst securing three points at home to St Mirren and Hamilton.

In my opinion this Motherwell team will creates chances against Rangers and they have the ability and talent to take them, with on loan striker Jutkiewicz scoring a good few this season, O'Brian being the creative talent and bit Sutton up front also chipping in with some goals.

I expect Rangers to have their strikers back starting for this game, but I still feel the price on Motherwell is too high and I am therefore going to have a small to medium stake on the 7.2 home win.


Speculative bet on Motherwell @ 7.2 for me



Good luck everyone

[Ignacio_Roberto_Andres]

I think above pick is back to value or profit arguement here at the weekend. Motherwell are over-priced, maybe price 4.0 or 5.0 instead of 7.2 is too big. However that means you still taking a team who have real value of winning game around 4/1, Motherwell priced this big and as a underdog for a reason. Yes it true Rangers have struggle at Fir Park in recent years but they know this is big test. They have big point advantage and wont want to give celtic chance to come back. Main strikers boyd/Millar in squad again and they should win.

Rangers 1.5 does not show value, but I think it may show profit

Sorry about English

Ignacio

[StuSimmy]

I too thought about Motherwell being a great price but Rangers have only lost 1 SPL game all season so I would be looking more towards a draw which I think is a strong possibility. I will have a look nearer the time at the odds before making any bets though.

I can see a lot of draws this round of games but again will post up any confirmed bets nearer the time.

[TheFranchise]

I think Iganacio's correct. We're going back to the old value or profit debate.

It's hard to back anyone to beat Rangers because they've only lost once in their last 40 domestic matches. Rangers have been grinding out results in the league but their big players are now returning. Both Boyd and Miller may start this game. Bougherra has also returned to the side and Weir will be back after supension.

Motherwell are certainly capable of taking something from the game as previous results would suggest. Anyone thinking of backing Motherwell would probably be safer taking Draw No Bet or Double Chance.

Personally i've got some studying to do before i even consider getting involved in this match.

[SpiritOf67]

Motherwell v Rangers

4 of the last 5 games between these sides at Fir Park have ended up stalemates, with the last two being 0-0 draws so Rangers look too short at 1/2. Motherwell have been on good form since Craig Brown took over and the pitch isn't in good condition at the moment. The home price certainly looks enticing at 7.5 but the most likely result here for me is a low scoring draw or a single goal victory for Rangers so if I were to get involved I'd probably lay Rangers at 1/2.

[Scotlandspunter]

Agree guys, the most likely outcome is of course a Rangers victory or perhaps a draw, but I feel the Motherwell price is a fair bit higher than I would have priced them up, I believe they have what it takes to get the victory and I am happy to go small stakes on the home win at great odds and perhaps look to cover myself with a side bet on the draw

[Jase82]

Depends what Well team turn up. The team that labored to a 1-0 victory over a depleted Hamilton at the weekend, or the side that had been performing much better recently and appeared to be getting back on track? It's just so unpredictable. Craig Brown has definitely had a positive impact, but at 1.56, Rangers do not appeal, and in my opinion they are more likely to come unstuck at those odds when away.

However, you can't argue with the stats, and they tell me that Rangers have not lost to Well in the last thirteen attempts away. Although, in those thirteen fixtures there were five draws, including the last three head to heads at Fir Park. In fact, all but one of the remaining eight head to heads at Fir Park were all won by one goal in Rangers favour.

To summarise, Well have beaten Rangers four times in the last twenty four head to heads at Fir Park. Based on the fact that their last win at Fir Park against Rangers was in 2002, I think I'd be wanting more than the 7.5 on offer currently. I also don't think it makes particularly good sense to back Rangers at those odds, given how close these contests tend to be, and the improvement made over the last few weeks by new management at Motherwell.

Back either Rangers to win by one clear goal (Currently @ 3.50 - BET365), or the draw @ 4.2 - Betfair

[Scotlandspunter]

Originally Posted by Jase82

Depends what Well team turn up. The team that labored to a 1-0 victory over a depleted Hamilton at the weekend, or the side that had been performing much better recently and appeared to be getting back on track? It's just so unpredictable. Craig Brown has definitely had a positive impact, but at 1.56, Rangers do not appeal, and in my opinion they are more likely to come unstuck at those odds when away.

However, you can't argue with the stats, and they tell me that Rangers have not lost to Well in the last thirteen attempts away. Although, in those thirteen fixtures there were five draws, including the last three head to heads at Fir Park. In fact, all but one of the remaining eight head to heads at Fir Park were all won by one goal in Rangers favour.

To summarise, Well have beaten Rangers four times in the last twenty four head to heads at Fir Park. Based on the fact that their last win at Fir Park against Rangers was in 2002, I think I'd be wanting more than the 7.5 on offer currently. I also don't think it makes particularly good sense to back Rangers at those odds, given how close these contests tend to be, and the improvement made over the last few weeks by new management at Motherwell.

Back either Rangers to win by one clear goal (Currently @ 3.50 - BET365), or the draw @ 4.2 - Betfair

To be fair Jase, the gap between these two sides over the last twenty four head to heads at Fir Park has significantly decreased in my opinion, therefore these stats for my studying of the game become irrelevent.

Totally different circumstances in this game from that of those first twenty four games.

I'd say only the last 4 seasons or so would become relevant enough for my liking.

[barrhead73]

Motherwell DNB v Rangers (3pts @ 5.5 Bluesq)
As mentioned on previous posts here, Motherwell havent doen too badly at home to Rangers in previous games. Obviously the last time the teams met Rangers thumped them 6-1 but i am hopeful of things being a bit tighter here especially with KB still out.

Dundee Utd -1 tb Hamilton (4pts @2.05 Bet365)
I feel Hamilton are slowly slipping into a position where relegation looks a real possibility. They lost again on saturday while United progressed in the Cup. I fancy United by a couple of goals therefore the good value handicap is taken.

[TheFranchise]

Originally Posted by barrhead73

Motherwell DNB v Rangers (3pts @ 5.5 Bluesq)
As mentioned on previous posts here, Motherwell havent doen too badly at home to Rangers in previous games. Obviously the last time the teams met Rangers thumped them 6-1 but i am hopeful of things being a bit tighter here especially with KB still out.

Dundee Utd -1 tb Hamilton (4pts @2.05 Bet365)
I feel Hamilton are slowly slipping into a position where relegation looks a real possibility. They lost again on saturday while United progressed in the Cup. I fancy United by a couple of goals therefore the good value handicap is taken.

I assume you mean Kris Boyd?

Kris Boyd is fit and available for selection. He came through half an hour at the weekend unscathed.

[barrhead73]

Thanks for that Franchise, the stupid thing is i actually watched the St Mirren game on Saturday....

Nevermind, maybe he will take his time to get back to match sharpness.......or maybe he'll score 6 goals this time.

[takeaboo]

Originally Posted by TheFranchise

I assume you mean Kris Boyd?

Kris Boyd is fit and available for selection. He came through half an hour at the weekend unscathed.

I think it just depends what team Walter starts with tomorrow night.If Boyd and Miller start up front with Novo on the wing then i think we will win by a goal or 2.

The only bet i will have on the game will be Davis 1st goalscorer @ 16/1.Just small stakes though

[Kosher Readies]

Motherwell v Rangers

I'll be going with the same bets in this game as I was succesfull with in the St.Mirren v Rangers cup tie at the weekend. I think this will be a similarly scrappy game.

Rangers have not conceded a goal in 4 games and have the best defensive away record in the league, conceding only 6 goals in 11 games. Motherwell do have better attacking options than St.Mirren but I can't see them breaching the Rangers defence and odds of 2.3 appeal.

The last 5 fixtures between the sides at Fir Park have finished under 2.5, and on a rotten pitch, I can't see many goals tomorrow night.

Selections:

Rangers to keep a clean sheet @ 2.3 with Betfair - 2.5 units
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08 with Betfair - 2.5 units

[Atko]

Two picks for me in the SPL tonight...

Hibernian vs Aberdeen: Hibernian at 1.89
Considering I had Hibernian priced at 1.78 for this match and that I do believe they'll win tonight, I'm happy to take this bet on. John Hughes' side have won their last four matches, of which three were at home, and have looked extremely dangerous. In Anthony Stokes, Derek Riordan and Colin Nish, they have strikers capable of scoring against anyone and the midfield trio of John Rankin, Liam Miller and Kevin McBride are on form. Hibs have shored up at the back two, a thing that had been their Achilles heel of late, and the goalkeeping situation seems to have been sorted out with the arrival of Graeme Smith. Sol Bamba is set to return to the Hibs defence after missing the cup tie against Montrose. Aberdeen have been a better side on the road than at home and I expect them to sit back and try and catch Hibs on the break. They have the pace in Sone Aluko and Peter Pawlett to cause Hibs problems but I can also see Mark Kerr, Fraser Fyvie and Gary McDonald losing the midfield battle. They are weak at the back. Zander Diamond is back in the side, but they still look shaky in defence and Hibs have the attackers to take advantage. Hibs have won both meetings this season and although they've been close games, I expect Hibs to keep up their good form here.
Bet strength: 4pts

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: Kilmarnock (0) AH at 2.10
This is a huge clash at the bottom of the SPL table and one that I expect to be very cagey. Neither side will want to lose something to a rival at this stage of the season. Both have picked up their form in recent weeks but I still see Kilmarnock as the better side. Jimmy Calderwood has come in as new manager and made changes. As a result, they look a more confident side. Chris Maguire, their on-loan striker from Aberdeen, is back in the side, as is creative midfielder Mehdi Taouil. They still have a couple of defenders out injured but two clean sheets in a row show that the defence is starting to gel with Manuel Pascali organising. Goalkeeper Cameron Bell is also playing very well. Falkirk will be lifted by their 1-0 win at Aberdeen but I'm still to be convinced by Eddie May's side. They are still short at the back and goals are a rare commodity. I seriously considered under 2 goals but I do believe Kilmarnock have what it takes to win here tonight. They are looking a completely different side under Calderwood and when you consider Falkirk have only won once at home all season, I reckon Killie are a value bet at 2.10 with full draw cover.
Bet strength: 4pts

Here's a few words on the rest of the card. No bets for me here though.

Celtic vs Hearts
Once again, the handicap prices on an out-of-sorts Celtic team are far too short. Hearts have a few players out (Driver, Bouzid, Palazuelos) but they can be frustrating opponents and I couldn't back Celtic with any confidence to win, let alone beat the handicap.

Dundee Utd vs Hamilton
Accies have a bit of a hex over United but they are in woeful form at present. Neil should return to midfield but they need to address a leaky defence. United are still without Webster and with the odds skinny, I'm inclined to say no.

Motherwell vs Rangers
Not a game I'd want to have any money on. Well will be up for this, and I reckon Rangers are due a slip-up soon. Craig Brown's a canny manager and the pitch is treacherous. Rangers won't have it easy.

St Mirren vs St Johnstone
Another very tight match. The Buddies are in a dispute over cup bonuses, although I can't see that affecting them too much. St Johnstone have Rutkiewitz and Samuel back - two important players. Impossible to call.

Good luck,
Atko

[Jase82]

Falkirk v Kilmarnock UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.69 - Betfair.

Not sure I would back the away side here on the asian, because usually in a relegation scrap, it favours the home side slightly.

The odds here are poor, but similar to Wigan V Stoke last night, if this were a league known for it's lack of goals, I'm sure they would be set at about 1.40.

Killy have only scored two away goals all season. Falkirk have only hit nine home goals all season. I think it's clear that at the wrong end of the SPL table, quality is at a premium, and as this is a relegation contest, I'm happy to side with the unders here. It's likely to be a scrappy contest, where something will have to go right at at particular moment in time for either team to score.

Also, the last five head to heads at Falkirk have gone under.

[Poetik]

Sport	Football (Scotland)
Event	Celtic - Hearts
Selection	Hearts +1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98 (Back)
Reasoning	For me Hearts have good chance to not lose this match with 2 goals margin, really. Celtic in my opinion in last time play bad - lost at home against Hibs 1-2, lucky win on away against Hamilton 1-0, lost on away against Kilmarnock 1-0 and last match in Cup won 4-2 against Dumferline, but have big lucky - Dumferline can leading 3-1 after first half.. Celtic is not 'team', many fresh faces in the squad. Hearts in last 10 matches have balance 4-3-3, 8:9 in goals, but last two matches in a row lost.. Players are very motivated to take good result today. Hearts won last two matches against Celtic - on away 1-0 and 2-1 at home. Celtic in last 6 matches against Hearts not win with 2 or more goals margin. For me Hearts with this handicap look very good!

[Poetik]

Sport	Football (Scotland)
Event	Motherwell - Rangers
Selection	Under 2.5
Strength	10/10
Date	10/02/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 2.05 (Back)
Reasoning	I see low scoring result in this match, odds look very good, I take it with full stakes. Motherwell is good team, in this moment is 5 in the table. Hosts in last time have incredible form - won 4 of last 5 matches, score 9 goals and not concended a single goal! Motherwell have good goalkeeper and nice defenders. Rangers is the best team in Scotland, without any doubts. Have 10 points more than second Celtic. Rangers have very good defense, in last 10 matches concended only 5 goals. Rangers in last matches on away not play offense football - want score goal and controll game - 1-1 with Celtic, 1-0 with Hamilton, 2-0 with St Mirren. Motherwell Rangers 0:0 12.09.2009 Motherwell Rangers 0:0 12.11.2008 Motherwell Rangers 1:1 17.05.2008

[riveredhouse]

Hibernian - 1.9 Betfair

This looks to be the stand out bet of the day. Whats the opinion on Hibs?

-------------

Hibs sit in third place, 12 points behind leaders Rangers with a game in hand and 2 behind Celtic with a game in hand. They will certainly feel they can battle on for second place. They have lost only 3 times since mid september and those games were to the other top four sides, Celtic, Rangers and Dundee United.

They have scored 14 goals in their last 4 games which all resulted in wins. Between them Derek Riordan and Anthony Stokes have scored 22 SPL goals. Finding the net has not been a problem for John Hughes side and they have also looked more solid defensively compared to recent seasons.

They have also gone to Ibrox and Celtic Park and got 4 points from those games. They have beaten Wednesday's opponents Aberdeen twice already this season, 2-0 at Easter Road and 2-0 at Pitodrie in December.

Aberdeen for their part have not had the best of seasons and face a struggle to make the top 6 before the split. Fans remain unconvinced over Mark Mcghee in his first season in charge. After a very poor start the Dons have improved as the season has progressed and are still the only side to beat leaders Rangers this season.

However recently their form has been poor and only managed a late equaliser at Raith Rovers in the Cup on Saturday. Before that they lost their 2 previous SPL games at home to Falkirk and Motherwell in games that they rarely threatened the opposition goal.
Scoring goals has been a big problem for Mcghee's side and only bottom side Hamilton have scored less. Midfielders Charlie Mulgrew and Gary Mcdonald are top scorers on 3 goals each, while their main strike threat Lee Miller has departed for Middlesboro

[dak]

Motherwell - Rangers: Rangers @ 1.61 (Betfair) 10/10

Motherwell have picked up a bit of form in the last 6 league matches with a record of 4-1-1 and I think this may mislead some to believe that they have a reasonable chance of getting a result. I don't think so. Motherwell's 4 wins and a draw have come against inferior teams (Hamilton: 12th; Aberdeen:7th; Falkirk:11th; St. Mirren: 9th; Kilmarnock: 10th) The loss came against Hearts (6th). Well, tonight they are playing against the League leaders who have been very efficient if not always impressive. The quality gap between the teams is significant and Rangers know that if they start slipping up with a draw here and loss there they will give Celtic the chance to get back into the race. Admittedly, the price offered is low but I think the visitors are a winner tonight.