Premiership League Outright

[PompeyPunt]

Maybe Middlesbrough to sneak into the top 6? someone usually suprises and makes a push, and i would be suprised if Villa did the same again. Boro have some decent players i feel, and top 6 isn't totally beyond them, surely? 5/1 is a decent price IMO anyway.

[Carl]

I agree also 20 for charlton surley thats worth a few points but ill settle for Rovers @7's

Avoid Boro for top 6. So far they have not yet replaced Mills and Zenden, who were key players. They are still awaiting Southgate, Schwarzer and Job to re-sign new contracts. They probably will. An even bigger issue is UEFA cup campaign, which takes a league format, so they will probably be playing more games and more travelling than most other teams in the EPL. I can't see them picking up more points than last season's 48. For top 6 you will probably need 58 points.

Charlton at 20/1 is the value bet. They were in the top 6 for alot of last season and Curbishley is strengthing his squad. Curbishley does not appear to be a cup fan, prefering in the past to concentrate all efforts on the league. He was keen for Charlton to enter Intertoto, so he must think the squad he has has depth. Mind you the bet really is for Charlton to finish 6th, as the big 5 have a strong grip on those positions, because of their vastly superior resources over the rest of the league.

Another tip is get on early to the smaller clubs with less International presence, as the big clubs may start a bit sluggishly due to bigger involvement in Euro 2004.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Id be interested with a small stake on Bolton @ 50/1. Keep improving year after year and Sam Allyardce is a solid manager. Always seems to get the best from his players. Jordi may be joining and if he can work the magic on him and hold onto their better players nothings impossible. Possible new believe in the squads capabilities too after last years visit to the Millenium Stadium and an 8th place finish. 50's looks a good price for a few quid imo.

[Carl]

Fecking Bolton ill cover fecking 100/1 they wont, we will finish higher than them!

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Quite possibly but that will be why you're only quoted @ 7/1 Herp.

WFTE - Bolton have a chance and at 50/1 worth a couple of quid. SA has picked up some real gems in ther transfer market in the past.
IMO not quite as strong as Charlton, but Bolton were a really solid looking Prem team last season and probably would have picked up a few more points if it wasn't for the Carling Cup.
I have a feeling they will go all out for the Carling Cup again as their preferred UEFA cup route.

I think middlesbrough are a cracking bet to finish in the top 6, theyve just signed Rezeiger who is a quality player, Viduka just passed his medical he is a proven quality player, and their after Kluivert, that would be a dream partenship. Mendieta had signed aswell. Not to mention the likes of Schwarzer,Southgate,Ehiogu,Queudrue and Juninho.

[Carl]

sound a bit biased there tony but yes good side and will fin top 10 also steve is top quality manager.
Kluivert going to the toon
not that keen on viduka do you think he will give 100% or is he just after the money re leeds.

Actually Im a newcastle fan , and wouldnt mind kluivert altough dont think bellamy will sit on the bench for long.

I think Viduka is top quality and will score alot of goals.

Earlier post re. Arb..

If we accept that one of Arsenal, Chelsea or Man U will win...

Betfair are showing:
Arsenal 2.8
Chelsea 3.55
Man U 3.95

Arb = 12.1%

Bet 1000
Arsenal - 400.38
Chelsea - 315.80
Man U - 283.82

returns = 1121.08

Also, Liverpool are 16.5

add them in and there is still a 4.975% arb...

A - 374.91
C - 295.71
MU - 265.76
L - 63.62

Returns 1049.75

good stuff luxembourg.

I'll be backing Man U outright this year, currently best price @ 3/1 with Skybet.

[Rob]

has that taken into account the 5% commission?

For those of you looking for an Arb, winner of the Prem without the top three could be where the value lies.

Liverpool 2 - bet365
Newcastle 4.7(4.515 after commission) - betfair.

That's a 27.85% Arb!

Having said that, it's obviously not guaranteed and I dunno whether I've got the bottle to do it myself. But for those of you that have, I can't see any team beating Liverpool and Newcastle to 4th.

Hey Guys,

Need some help with this one.

I watch the outright odds every season and I am amazed at the amount of fluctuation on a matchly basis exists (granted this is normally in the lower leagues but a famous case was the Man U odds in the 01/02 season, think they went out to 8s at one stage).

I am of the opinion that the only reason you should take the ante-post odds are incase your team gets off to an absolute flyer. If not (barring Arsenal last season) wait for a blip and the subsequent rise in odds.

Now, I think Liverpool are overpriced using the reverse of this argument (wait for a peak in form). At the moment I can get 15-1 on them to win the league. Please understand I don't think they will. However, I think that if they knock a few results together their odds will fall way below this point.

What I don't know how to do is "lock in the profit". So, if the odds fall to 10s (which I'm confident they will do at some stage of the season) how do I go about this. I know I have to "lay" liverpool but do I need to have the full value the bet in my account? I am confused and can find no online help for this.

Sorry if this post is in the wrong place but to recap I wrekon it is realistic that Liverpool's odds will fall to around 8-1 during the season.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Hi AMG.

Welcome to the Punters Lounge.

I don't go on the betting exchanges either so I cannot answer your question in detail. As you say you have to 'lay' your selection at lower odds than you backed it.

I would imagine you would need the cash in yuor account though.

[GETT1NLOTS]

By the way you might want to post this query in Sysyems and Strats as well.

[Rob]

AMG, I did a similar thing in the euros when I backed the czechs at 14/1 then layed them just before the Denmark game.

Using betfair, you don't need the full value of the 'lay' bet in your account if you have already backed them at a higher price. Betfair will work out that you are guarenteed a profit, so doesn't require you to tie up extra money til the end of the season

Cheers Emerson,

Betfair was exactly what I had in mind and my concern was the "opportunity cost" of tying up the money. Not that I actually have any...

Right, so it's time to get the calculator out and wade in.

AMP