Non-league midweek Dec 12-13

[Shipsupstreets]

Conf National - Tues 13 Best odds/All odds
Forest Green	2.5	2.5	2.62	-
Draw	3.2	3.2	3.2	-
Burton Albion	2.4	2.5	2.3	1.91

Conf North - Monday 12

Best odds/All odds
Droylsden	1.72	1.61	1.6
Draw	3.4	3.6	3.1
Workington	4	4.33	3.8

Conf South - Tues 13

Best odds/All odds
Welling United	2.2	2.2	2
Draw	3.25	3.5	3
Havant & Waterlooville	2.75	2.62	2.5

Ryman Prem

Tuesday 13 December 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Billericay Town v Braintree Town (19:45 GMT)	2.62	3.50	2.20	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time Result
Walton & Hersham v Worthing (19:45 GMT)	2.37	3.50	2.37	113%

Southern Prem Tuesday 13 December 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Billericay Town v Braintree Town (19:45 GMT)	2.62	3.50	2.20	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time Result
Walton & Hersham v Worthing (19:45 GMT)	2.37	3.50	2.37	113%

FA Trophy Tuesday 13

Best odds/All odds
Moor Green	2
Draw	3.2
Hednesford Town	3.2

FA Vase - Tuesday 13
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Arnold Town v Coalville Town (19:45 GMT)	2.10	3.50	2.75	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch Result
Brook House v Wisbech Town (19:45 GMT)	2.37	3.50	2.37	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch Result
Broxbourne Bor V&E v Maidstone (19:45 GMT)	3.10	3.60	1.90	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch Result
Mildenhall Town v Didcot (19:45 GMT)	4.33	3.60	1.61	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch Result
Selby Town v Buxton (19:45 GMT)	4.33	3.60	1.61	113%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch Result

[Shipsupstreets]

Quickly does it, but I'm having 2pts on Worthing at Walton (11/8 Slybet and Bet 365), 2pts on Salisbury, 1pt Braintree at Billericay (6/5 Slybet and Bet 365), and 1pt on 5/4 Salisbury at Merthyr.

At first glance of the Vase replays, I'm absolutely gob-smacked that Brook House are 11/8. It's possibly time to break a rule and punt on a side I've taken ante-post. Brook House were pretty unfortunate not to have won yesterday's match and Wisbech won't fancy the trek to deepest Hayes on a Tuesday night. I'm guessing the quote is based on the fact that Ryman 2 teams traditionally don't do well against tough Eastern Prem sides. However - as I've said before on here - Brook House are a very capable outfit this term, a Ryman 1 side in waiting whosequick football has impressed everyone they've played against. It's a cup match, so any ol' cobblers can happen, but Brook House should not be going off at anything over 4/5.

[Tulenos]

2pts on Salisbury, 1pt Braintree at Billericay (6/5 Slybet and Bet 365), and 1pt on 5/4 Salisbury at Merthyr.

Got the same question, Shipupstreets - looks like the 2pt bet should be on another team than Salisbury, surely???

[mrmuzeman]

Im going to trust your judgement on this one Ships and take Brook House. Theyve already gone into 5/4 but as you think they should be odds on and they did have the best of it away at the weekend im having a go. Cheers (or should I wait til after the game before I say that )

EDIT - I just read the report and it certainy does sound like they deserved it. BUT it says Dean Papali got injured and taken off in extra time but no mention of if the injury was bad or anything. Hes scored a hatrick in that game so if hes not available is that a big miss? Ive noticed they score loads of goals anyway but is he their best striker or what?

[Welling Bet Maester]

On first Glance, Havant at 7/4 to beat Welling with bet365 looks a Christmas Present. Welling could only field 3 subs in the draw at Bishop Stortford and have 6 Injured players, plus one more in the Storford Game. Wings from being joint top have rapidly lost ground on Havant and Weymouth. 7/4 way too big.

[premierblade]

am i missing something ships.. is that 1, 2 or 3 pts on salisbury..

[Shipsupstreets]

Whoops! One point on Salisbury - that'll teach me to read what I've written when I'm typing in a hurry. Stan James are offering best odds on Braintree and Worthing. They're also best about Havant and Bedford, both of which are tasty.

[Shipsupstreets]

Mr M - Papali will mostly be a miss because it'll fire up the Wisbech team if he's no playing, but Brook House do share the goals around. I'm reckoning Wisbech will have a couple of cry-offs - hard for a lot of people to get time off work at short notice before Xmas, even though Brook House have generously allowed an 8pm ko. I'm in danger of becoming a Brook House cheerleader at this rate, and there's not a huge difference between the teams, but given the circumstances I reckon they've got a greater than 50% chance of winning this fixture in 90 mins.

[Shipsupstreets]

A bit more on the plays this week:

Worthing at Walton (now 6/4 with Stan James) 2pts
Worthing have only lost once away since the first day of the season, and are a very decent outfit, despite losing 3-1 to Chelmsford at home on Saturday. Walton have been on a great run, but as I pointed out at the weekend they have mostly played the poorer sides. They are well organised but in all honesty have one mode of attack and are lacking a bit of pace in key areas. They've just played Fisher, and forthcoming fixtures against Braintree and AFC Dons, as well as this one, will put the good run in prespective.

Braintree at Billericay (now 5/4 with Stan James) 1pt
I overstated the case for Billericay at the weekend: they are totally directionless at the moment, as well as being fairly makeshift at the back. Braintree are hopefully over their blip at Harrow.

Salisbury at Merthyr (5/4 Stan James/Bet 365) 1pt
I do think Merthyr are much better than their league position suggests, and possess a great forward line, but they haven't fired at all in recent weeks - even their equaliser on Saturday at Cirencester depended on the intervention the referee, who go in the way of a home defender. Salisbury dismantled Chesham on Saturday, which says a lot about how bad Chesham are, but the fact that they could have doubled their tally if it wasn't for some superb Chesham goalkeeping says a lot about Salisbury. A tough match but Salisbury to squeak it.

Bedford at Chesham (11/10 Stan James) 1pt
I've given in to the price... Chesham have adopted a strange style of piling forward as best they can and not really worrying about defensive organisation. It got them a 3-0 lead in 25 mins against Tiverton (finished 3-3) and got them a 6-0 tupping at Salisbury. If strikers Dillon and Howe for Bedford get their act together tomorrow night they could make hay too. Only a point for me though, as Bedford sometimes don't hit the sweet spot when their most expected to.

(1-10 scale)

[Shipsupstreets]

Sudbury drawn at home to Bedlington Terriers in the Vase 4th round - they met last season in the semis, which Sudbury won on pens. Wisbech or Brook House drawn away to Hillingdon Borough.

[Shipsupstreets]

An early card-marker for Saturday's Trophy fixtures: Leighton are 6/1 to win at Borehamwood with Slybet. I'm having a point on that as giant-killing Leighton are in very good form right now in the SL West, whereas Borehamwood have shown recent signs of being vulnerable in the SL East. Two months this would have been a fair price; not now it isn't. Bet 365 go 10/3 Leighton.

[Leverstock Green]

cheers ships. good call on leighton.

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah tis a nice call Ships. Its interesting to note that Willenhall who have a 8-0-1 home record in Leightons league - that single loss was dealt by Leighton, which shows that they can beat strong home teams like Boreham Wood

[Djordje]

Don't have too many reasons to back my pick on Forest Green, except two - head to head stats and few selection problems at Burton.


Well, Burton are one of the probably very few sides that were doing bad against Rovers in last few years. They managed to win only once in last 6
meetings (this year though).

Yeah, I already mentioned injuries at Burton squad. Rovers in full 'strength'.
Sorry, no more reasons.

But price looks OK to me (2.5) for medium bet.

[Shipsupstreets]

For anyone interested this early, my weekend plays are thus:

Witton 11/10 Stan James 3pts
Hendon 11/10 Stan James 2pts
Gloucester 9/5 Stan James 1pt
Ilkeston 13/8 Slybet/Stan James 1pt
Leek 21/10 Bet 365 1pt

(1-10 scale)

[premierblade]

never too early ships.... have you had any of leighton?

[mrmuzeman]

You did absolute quality there Ships

Only Braintree failing and that was to an 89th minute equaliser

Guess the only one I was on

I was on brook house too though so profits profit

[Tulenos]

Well done, ships - yet again

[Shipsupstreets]

Decent evening's work with another few points added to the bank, but worth noting that Braintree also missed a pen at 1-0 up.

Good night for Brook House in the Vase, with a routine replay win at a good price and Didcot and Maidstone both going out of the tournament. The fourth round draw has been relatively unkind by giving most of the usual suspects winnable but tricky away fixtures. With one of AFC Sudbury and Bedlington to go out, and the possibility of more of the favourites falling by the wayside, it'll be worth scouting the lower reaches of the list for value.

[Shipsupstreets]

Well done to Djordje for picking FGR last night, 1-0 winners over Burton at a very handy price. That's a run of four out four picks in the Conference in four days - cigar time, mate!