League One Ante Post

[Footy Analyser]

This time last year in this very same thread I posted how Bristol City were excellent e/w value @ 12/1 in League One, value maybe end product I'm afraid not.

On the positive though I spoke of how Swindon were value @ 9/1 to be relegated, well at least that balanced the set.

Though my weekend scripes to this excellent site have stopped for a good year and a half now, my Ante Post thoughts still carry great deliberation.

I might be stating the obvious here but as I saw no similar League One thread one of this divisions top value punts if not biggest price is IMO Rotherham to be relegated @ 10/11 (Bet 365)

Unless I have missed something, the not so merry Millers are still due to start next year with a 10 point handicap due to their enforced relocation into administration last season.

A similar handicap last year and Rotherham would still have had to finish around 14th to avoid the drop.

The battle against closure last season seemed to unite the club and to their credit United posted a series of strong home results in the last half a dozen or so matches to save their season by 2 points, after a dismal first 6 months had seen them firm favourites for the drop.

Only a Millers fan would say for certain whether the lose of strikers Butler and Shaw and midfielders Mullin and McClaren is a significant fact, from a distance I would suggest it is far from ideal. Manager Alan Knill is working hard to bring in new blood, Delroy Facey, Ian Sharps and Richie Partridge are all useful at this level, but is it enough?

10 points is a heavy burden to carry around though for a team I think most would agree at best will be average, of the early layers Bed Fred @ 4/7 and Corals @ 4/11 a significant difference look nearer the mark, this near double your money price may not last long.

While I'd never claim it to be top value Bristol City @ 7/4 to be promoted (Corals) is on my shopping list again.

The Robins with the very astute and well entrenched Gary Johnson at the helm surely at last looked primed for success. City posted a great record from Christmas onwards last year with only 5 defeats in their last 26 matches, came from bottom to almost sneak a play off berth.

Johnson who has added ex Yeovil and Luton front men Phil Jevon's and Enoch Showunmi to his attack and Lincoln player of the year Jamie McCombe to his defence, is a great motivator and man manager with a proven track record of success. Johnson with close on a year now to mould and build his squad represents the Robins best chance of success after 7 long years in League One.

Last year's value 12/1 may be a distant memory, but with the play off's as cover the promoted bet in my opinion can ultimately finally reap a pay out after too many years of under achievement and lost stake money.

Recommendations

Bristol City to be promoted 7/4 (Corals)
Rotherham to be relegated 10/11 (Bet 365)

FA

[AK1979]

Good to see you back mate - i've missed your posts

[Shipsupstreets]

Great to see you back, Footy! Swindon brought a very nice return last season!

Tremendous tips here too. Rotherham are indeed -10, although they seem to be signing players (Delroy Facey came in last week) so they haven't got any sort of embargo.

Agree also that Bristol C are looking very good this season. I was very happy to take them ante-post last season, but Tinnion clearly hadn't developed as a manager. Betdirect were going 7/1 on the outrights a few weeks ago, though that has been trimmed.

There is a bit of value down the list. I certainly don't think Brighton deserve to be 25/1 outright (Betdirect) or 7/1 for promotion (Slybet).

[SecondSight]

Footy A - Cheers for Swindon last season, I won on it.

I agree with your picks, but I don't like taking short priced season long bets.

Anyone any thoughts on Brentford - They have lost a decent manager in Allen, although he maybe had a difficult personality. They have also shipped out a number of players and lost to Staines in a friendly which I don't read alot into, but its not healthy. 10/1 to be relegated is available.

[Rob]

Originally Posted by Footy Analyser

This time last year in this very same thread I posted how Bristol City were excellent e/w value @ 12/1 in League One, value maybe end product I'm afraid not.

On the positive though I spoke of how Swindon were value @ 9/1 to be relegated, well at least that balanced the set.

Though my weekend scripes to this excellent site have stopped for a good year and a half now, my Ante Post thoughts still carry great deliberation.

I might be stating the obvious here but as I saw no similar League One thread one of this divisions top value punts if not biggest price is IMO Rotherham to be relegated @ 10/11 (Bet 365)

Unless I have missed something, the not so merry Millers are still due to start next year with a 10 point handicap due to their enforced relocation into administration last season.

A similar handicap last year and Rotherham would still have had to finish around 14th to avoid the drop.

The battle against closure last season seemed to unite the club and to their credit United posted a series of strong home results in the last half a dozen or so matches to save their season by 2 points, after a dismal first 6 months had seen them firm favourites for the drop.

Only a Millers fan would say for certain whether the lose of strikers Butler and Shaw and midfielders Mullin and McClaren is a significant fact, from a distance I would suggest it is far from ideal. Manager Alan Knill is working hard to bring in new blood, Delroy Facey, Ian Sharps and Richie Partridge are all useful at this level, but is it enough?

10 points is a heavy burden to carry around though for a team I think most would agree at best will be average, of the early layers Bed Fred @ 4/7 and Corals @ 4/11 a significant difference look nearer the mark, this near double your money price may not last long.

While I'd never claim it to be top value Bristol City @ 7/4 to be promoted (Corals) is on my shopping list again.

The Robins with the very astute and well entrenched Gary Johnson at the helm surely at last looked primed for success. City posted a great record from Christmas onwards last year with only 5 defeats in their last 26 matches, came from bottom to almost sneak a play off berth.

Johnson who has added ex Yeovil and Luton front men Phil Jevon's and Enoch Showunmi to his attack and Lincoln player of the year Jamie McCombe to his defence, is a great motivator and man manager with a proven track record of success. Johnson with close on a year now to mould and build his squad represents the Robins best chance of success after 7 long years in League One.

Last year's value 12/1 may be a distant memory, but with the play off's as cover the promoted bet in my opinion can ultimately finally reap a pay out after too many years of under achievement and lost stake money.

Recommendations

Bristol City to be promoted 7/4 (Corals)
Rotherham to be relegated 10/11 (Bet 365)

FA

I'm not a millers fan but I can confirm that Paul Mclaren in crap and will be no loss,and richie partridge will do well in league one

[Footy Analyser]

Bar maybe the backing of Thierry Henry, top goalscorer bets are not really in my opinion for heavy wagers, and best dabbled at out of interest and fun.

Neveraless some pretty decent prices can be found, League One see's proven performers such as Hayter of Bournmouth, Tyson of Forest and Trundle of Swansea all available at around the 16/1 mark.

Last years winner was Southend's Fredddie Eastwood available @ 25/1 pre kick off.

Having already trumpted the cause of Bristol City to do well, it is only logical to look to one of their forwards to led the goal chase. Steve Brooker and Phil Jevon's are rightly the market leaders for that club, but its Enoch Showunmi e/w @ 66/1 (Bet 365) who gets my vote.

Showunmi who signed for City in the summer despite a contract offer at Championship Luton, is still relatively new in football terms having only arrived from non league several years back. He is raw and still learning but had contributed 15 goals in 60 games for Luton, a side dominated up front by the powerful Steve Howard.

Phil Jevon's notched close on 20 goals for Yeovil in each of the last two season's and in truth will probably partner Brooker on the opening day. But interestingly City boss Gary Johnson has played the left footed Jevon's on the left of midfield on several outings in pre season, a position he also played on more than one occasion while at Yeovil. Bristol have a problem on the left wing.often playing right footers such as Scott Murray there to compensate, ultimatelty there's only so long that you can have a square peg in a round hole.

It is conceviable that Jevon's might get a run in this area leaving a strike role for the 6ft 5" Showunmi to fill up front, especially as Gary Johnson believes Brooker plays better off a 'big man'.

Of course this is pure speculation but @ 66/1 you don't expect a dead cert, with quarter the odds for a place in the top four of the list, Showunmi IMO represents a value each way long shot underestimated by the bookies.

Having nailed my colours firmly to Rotherham for relegation that IMO leaves 3 places. Second Sight rightly mentions Brentford as looking unstable. Losing manager Martin Allen could be a disaster as the rest of the crew seem to be jumping ship as well. I saw Brentford several times last year the three players that stood out were defenders Turner and Sodje and midfielder Tabb, all have now left.

I respect new boss Leroy Rosenior but Allen is an impossible act to follow, there's always one 'decent' team that has a disaster the following year and they head that list at present. Having taken 9/1 last season on Swindon who had relegation written all over them, I would want at least that price again if not slightly more, either way I agree The Bee's are worth further consideration before August 5th.

Recommendation

Enoch Showunmi to be top goalscorer E/W 66/1 (Bet 365)

FA

[garyfinny]

I agree with Brentford. Quite a few players leaving, although they did get £350,000 for Sodje. Apparently the club is not in good shape.

Similarly I feel Millwall could struggle too - they're in poor shape financially as well and I don't rate Spackman as a manager at all.

I've seen Showumni before and he's an unpredictable player - has all the attributes but not the strikers instinct to become a 20 goal-a season man.
Similar to Odejayi of Cheltenham in fact.

Jevons was the penalty taker at Yeovil which rather inflated his goals tally IMO - they had loads of penalties. Unsure if he would take them for Bristol City but this could be good news, if he plays upfront.

Top goalscorer - I fancy Luke Beckett. The guy has scored goals at every club he has played - 1 goal in 2 games career average. Huddersfield scored the 2nd highest amount of goals last season in the division.

[thegiddygambler]

Nobody fancy Forest then?

Can anybody ITK about Div 1 give me an opinion on their chances. I'm thinking of lumping on the favs in the top 3 divs and chucking the hoops in in the spl.

Should give a tidy profit.

I'm confident in Prem, Champ and SPL but my knowledge of div 1 is patchy. Didn't forest have a stormer late on last season?

Muchas Gracias

[SecondSight]

I too am not an expert here, but I do know from bitter experience pre season favs do not generally do well in this league. Forest is a Prem club in the wilderness you would expect them to win it, but the odds are short.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by SecondSight

Forest is a Prem club in the wilderness you would expect them to win it, but the odds are short.

its always difficult to do well, when every game is a cup final for your opponent.

[chala]

Originally Posted by SecondSight

I too am not an expert here, but I do know from bitter experience pre season favs do not generally do well in this league. Forest is a Prem club in the wilderness you would expect them to win it, but the odds are short.

Very true, that's probably why we never go up. Darn Bookies!

On the other hand this is Forest's second season in the league, and their end of season form last season must give the team confidence going into the new season. However, that may have just been the new manager syndrome, so it'll be interesting to see how they go this season.

For once I expect both us & Forest to atleast make the playoffs.

Originally Posted by thegiddygambler

Nobody fancy Forest then?

Can anybody ITK about Div 1 give me an opinion on their chances. I'm thinking of lumping on the favs in the top 3 divs and chucking the hoops in in the spl.

Should give a tidy profit.

I'm confident in Prem, Champ and SPL but my knowledge of div 1 is patchy. Didn't forest have a stormer late on last season?

Muchas Gracias.

Not sure how you could be so confident in Celtic GG.

They've lost both Sutton & Hartson from their strikeforce, Petrov wants out, and their pre-season has been a shambles.

[kevshat]

Enoch really isn't a guy who's going to get you 15 goals a season as his record with us suggested. He actually prefers to play in midfield be it on the left or in the middle but filled in for us up front at the end of games as someone to be a menace in the box.

As someone said he's unpredictable but he's unlikely to score anywhere near the amount other more natural goalscorers in this league will get. My advice would be to keep stakes on him very low.

[pageot]

Few thoughts from the pre-season games i've seen this weekend:

Oldham Athletic (v Shrewsbury Town)
Took the lead first half and looked quite impressive, passing and moving well. Heavily reliant on the central midfielders, think it was Wood who sat in front of the defence to allow Richie Wellens to bomb on; Wellens is a top player at this level.
Seemed to run out of ideas when he went off second half though and ended up losing 2-1. Hard to judge the rest of the side as think a lot were triallists (didnt even have numbers on shirts!).

Bristol City (v hereford)
put out a strong line-up but have to say was thoughroughly underwhelmed. Having been so impressed with Gary Johnsons Yeovil side the biggest dissappointment was that they didnt seem to have much of a plan other than aimless high balls towards a frustrated Brooker. Central midfielders (i think Heywood and Noble?) didnt seem put a single move together all afternoon (are they better when Alex Russell plays?)
Strengths are clearly the widemen Murray and Cotterill; when they finally realised this second half they certainly got better. Have to say for 6/1 second favourites they have a long way to go before they will see any of my money

[thegiddygambler]

Originally Posted by chala

Very true, that's probably why we never go up. Darn Bookies!

On the other hand this is Forest's second season in the league, and their end of season form last season must give the team confidence going into the new season. However, that may have just been the new manager syndrome, so it'll be interesting to see how they go this season.

For once I expect both us & Forest to atleast make the playoffs.




Not sure how you could be so confident in Celtic GG.

They've lost both Sutton & Hartson from their strikeforce, Petrov wants out, and their pre-season has been a shambles.

They were nearly 20 pts better off than the Gers last season mate. Don't see Rangers closing that kind of gap personally.

[Bobbyhead]

Millwall in receipt of +18pts,with Tote(quarter odds 1234) at 18/1,is too
big IMO.I see them challenging for play offs at the very least.I'd of thought a top7 finish with this hcp would secure place returns,or even win?

[Footy Analyser]

Originally Posted by kevshat

Enoch really isn't a guy who's going to get you 15 goals a season as his record with us suggested. He actually prefers to play in midfield be it on the left or in the middle but filled in for us up front at the end of games as someone to be a menace in the box.

As someone said he's unpredictable but he's unlikely to score anywhere near the amount other more natural goalscorers in this league will get. My advice would be to keep stakes on him very low.

Having taken further note of Bristol City's preparations I agree Showunmi though a big price is something of shot in the dark, a much more realistic bet is Phil Jevon's @ 25/1 E/W (Hills) to come closer to a top four scorer finish.

Jevon's who has scored over 40 goals in the last two years at Yeovil, wins the vote over Bristol's other front man Steve Brooker mainly due to his consistant strike rate from the penalty spot and his ability to score from set pieces. While Brooker (whoose priced generally between 12/1 - 16/1) more agresssive approach is maybe more open to injury and punishment from referee's.

Corals & Bet 365 have priced Jevons at IMO a more realistic 16/1 therefore Hills 25/1 represents decent value for those who don't find top scorer bets a total lottery.

Recommendation

Phil Jevon's to be top goalscorer E/W League One 25/1 (Hills)

[winbet]

On the other hand this is Forest's second season in the league, and their end of season form last season must give the team confidence going into the new season. However, that may have just been the new manager syndrome, so it'll be interesting to see how they go this season.

For once I expect both us & Forest to atleast make the playoffs.


Here's hoping new manager syndrome will work again for Forest.

Forest have only signed keeper Paul Smith, but they shouldn't really need to make signings if everyone is playing to their potential.

I have backed Doncaster and bristol c antepost, so as not to put any added pressure on my team.