LAY the Draw - Confused!!

[thunderfoot]

I've seen it often said that LAY the Draw before the Match begins, then BACK on the first goal is a 'reasonable' trading strategy, the theory being that once the 1st goal is scored, the odds for a Draw are increased.

My 'observations' of the odds activity over the weekend don't seem to support this. For instance (I'm sure I read it right), in the Fulham v Chelsea game the Draw was about 3.50 before the game started but when Fulham scored the Odds dropped to about 2.50!!

Question is, is the 'Lay the Draw' strategy only valid on certain match's, and if so which one's?

I have a feeling that if the Away team are lower Odds than the Home team, as the Fulham v Chelsea game was, then this 'strategy' don't work!! If this is so, it would be interesting to know where the 'cross-over' point (Odds wise) is i.e. by how much the Home teams Odds have to be greater than the Away teams odds.

[archaeus]

It is obvious that if the underdogs score against chelsea, the dreaw odds would be arround that margin, as it's supposed that chlesea ( in this case ) can score and equalize. LAY the draw method gives best results when the home team is priced arround evens and odds arround evens, they score then the draq odds jump to arround 4.