FA Cup replays 17/18/19 January

[Posh Punter]

Burnley v Liverpool looks under to me. Burnley have scored 7 and conceded 3 in their last 8 games and haven't conceded in their last 5 home games, (including the visits of Wigan & Reading), whilst Liverpool are struggling to find the net at the moment, 10 goals in 8 games (including 5 v WBA, so 5 in the other 7), whilst concecing only 5.

That's a total of 25 goals in 16 games by these two sides.

Liverpool looked a little woeful at home against Watford and could only muster a deflected goal.

I'll personally go with Burnley with the draw saver.

[Danny Cash]

Swansea 0 Reading 0 90mins

Effigy, damn fine suggestion to cover 1-0 to Swansea!

I was convinced they'd get a goal, I gave Reading far too much credit. Swansea deserved to score at least.

Slightly relieved at the final whistle to say the least!

cheers
Danny

[TUFCJON]

Nice on Danny. I took the Reading win in the 90.


Win some, lose some!
Jon

[kompressaur]

2 things quickly, How the hell did Gretna v Dundee Utd slip in here Caber and Ross and are you Yuri Gellar StevieFlack?

No No No.

Exeter certainly will not lose.

Go Santos Gaia 1st goal -2/1 exeter :scorecast

Pays 1160/1 on stan james

Thats bold Stevie. I aint so sure myself but what makes you fancy that?

Anyone got any team news on Liverpool tonight? As Gorstak says it looks tight but i'm looking for a bit of the action tonight. Whats the word on the street regarding Liverpool tonight?

[kompressaur]

Looking at Leicester at Blackpool. Anyone got a fancy in this? Here's the ststa from the fiirst game. Leicester at home.

13	Goal Attempts	6
10	On Target	4
3	Off Target	2
0	Hit Woodwork	0
1	Offsides	3
6	Corners	0
16	Fouls	13

You might have to highlight to see them. Hows Leiceter's away form? Worth the even money in my local Hills?

Just checked, they seem ok on the road. Anyone tell me more?

[chapman22]

Hello all, my first of hopefully many posts in the lounge here, hope it helps.

Blackpool V Leicester City

Leicester recently had a poor run of 3 defeats and 1 draw in four league games, they lost at home to Reading and Rotherham (0-2 & 0-1) Away at Sheff Utd (2-0) and a 1-1 draw at Notts Forest, aided by a 92nd minute equaliser.

Things have picked up since with a 1-0 win at home to QPR and a credible 1-1 draw at the weekend away to in form Preston.

Ian Walker is expected to make his first appearance since a knee injury picked up back in August.

Jason Wilcox, Matt Elliot and Danny Tiatto are all still out, no other known injury problems at this stage.

Blackpool however have a bit of a goalkeeping crisis on their hands, with on-loan keeper Brad Jones refused permission to play, Lee Jones injured and Kevin Stuhr-Ellegaard struggling with flu.

No other known injurys yet though.

Blackpool have won just one in eight of their last League and cup games.

They have lost their last two home games 2-0 to good opposition in Hull and Port Vale, recent away form is better than home form, with a last minute equaliser at swindon sealing a 2-2 draw at the weekend, and a good win at Wrexham on New Years Day.

We're after the home form here though and it reads very interesting with only 2 wins in 13 league games this season along with 6 lost. Tamworth and Port Vale were seen off in the cup making it a total of 4 wins in 15 home games.

For those who take previous encounters into consideration, Leicester beat Blackpool in a league cup by a goal to nil three years ago, the last time they met at Bloomfield road.

The other thing to take into consideration is Blackpool have scored 19 goals in their 15 home ties (3 against Tamworth) but have conceded a shocking 22.

Leicester have Scored 16 goals in their 14 away games this season against far better opposition than Blackpool.

With these stats my tips for this game would be to have....

A small punt on Leicester to win@ about 6/5

A small punt on Over 2.5 goals, I'm not sure of the odds on this right now.

Sorry if the post is long, maybe I'll look at the other games later.

Mick.

[Djordje]

Leicester are maybe worth a shot here. They have keeper Ian Walker back after injury, and more important, Keith Gillespie is available after ban, and Foxes are expected to revert their 3-5-2 formation to more attacking one. On the other hand Blackpool could have troubles in goal, as on-loan Brad Jones hasn't permission to play. And they already had problems to save their net lately.

I don't see any surprises here when it's about who will advance, but I have doubts can Foxes finish the job in 90 minutes. They controlled the first match, but Blackpool managed to score first, and Foxes had to work hard to equlise in dying minutes of the match. I wouldn't exclude extra time here, so only small bet for me, asian handicap probably.

[kompressaur]

Superb post Chapman. That was just the info i was after and well put. Dont you worry about the length Chapmann well thats what my ex's have said to me.

I hope it will be the first of many too Chapman and let me be the first to welcome you to the Punter's Lounge

Big old Gorstak has a fancy too so that will just about do it for me to have a reasonable bet unless i get told otherwise by anyone. Looks like a worthy wager to me at this stage of the day.

Weather permitting i suppose.

[Rob]

As a keen follower of the unders market, I've got to say that Liverpool Burnley has under written all over it.

I do have nagging illogical thoughts at the back of my mind, but the 1.74 at betfair seems very reasonable as I expected more like 1.64.

All the reasons are covered above - bad pitch, low scoring teams, good defences and again 1-0 will do for liverpool

[all_funkt_up]

Emerson - I'd have to agree on the unders. This match has no redeeming features.

Looks like Liverpool will play as few experienced players as possible I think he will look at some of the shocks to other Prem teams and he will play a few experienced players but we're looking at the kids/reserves really.

No Morientes/Gerrard etc - under looks good. Lets hope they do enough to get through...

"The Liverpool boss has admitted he will select 'a mixture of youth and experience' for this evening's rearranged third round clash, with Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher among those given the night off to rest.
David Raven, John Welsh, Stephen Warnock, Zak Whitbread, Darren Potter and Neil Mellor will all take part at Turf Moor and the manager is confident his youngsters can repeat their Carling Cup heroics this season and ensure the Reds progress to a fourth round date with Bournemouth." Liverpoolfc.tv

[dprovan]

Bet 365 have over 2 goals at 11/10 in the under 2 exactly 2 over 2 market and over 2.5 goals at 13/10 so basically 11/10 or 13/10 for the exact same bet. Therefore I have put a speculative punt on over 2.5 to take advantage of the price.

[Was (Not Was)]

Blackpool v Leicester.

My young assistant said to me last night, all cocky and confident, that he had 20 quid on Reading to win at Swansea.

I said to him that he was a brave man. If they had drawn the first time around why should it not be equally as close in the replay.

I would express the same sentiments in respect of Blackpool and Leicester game. Basically I wouldn't touch it unless I could point to some factor that would give one team or the other an important advantage. (or a very generous price was on offer and here it would be Blackpool, if anybody)

Blackpool having a youth player between the sticks could be interesting but I would advise waiting for the exact line ups before investing any money

Their keeper who played in the first match was Kevin Stuhr-Ellegaard. He went down with the flu last week (before the Swindon match). His illness hasn't just happened. He may not be 100% but there must be a chance that he is on the road to recovery.

Sorry to be so negative but I just don't see why 5/4 on the away side should be considered to be a good price in a Cup replay

[Was (Not Was)]

Burnley v Liverpool

Burnley may be worth a shout at 6/1. Rafa has said that Gerard and Carragher won't play and there will be a mix of youth and experience. I advise waiting to see exactly what that mix is first and then maybe to have a small wager on the home side. There is definitely no value in backing Liverpool at 4/9.

I know that people will point to Liverpool's kids as having triumphed before. I personally had my doubts that their previous opponents in the shape of Millwall, Boro and Spurs had the necessary commitment.

Burnley have already beaten a full strength Villa side this season

[swampster]

Maybe Worth A Small Bet On 0-0 And 1-1 For Burnley.

[Djordje]

I noticed that asian line moved from +1 to +3/4 in Burnely v Liver match. Thought could be useful to someone.

[StevieFlack]

Komp-

All the exeter players are a big price to score, but Gaia (a central defender) is our top scorer. Seriously, he's practically in double figures from set-pieces alone.Its always his head on the end of a corner and he goes in with some welly.

[Monty]

Ill back Leicester 2.20 despite Woses young assistants failure...

GL

[thetwotwins]

Hello all you naughty punters, browsing the web in the firm's time!! Just hope that that nice anorak man from IT Security isn't preparing a report for personnel as we speak!

Can't resist quoting WAS:

"Sorry to be so negative but I just don't see why 5/4 on the away side should be considered to be a good price in a Cup replay"


...presumably then the 1.13 on Man U is not good value either? Or the 1/4 for - 1 handicap? However, I would avoid until its clear what team fergie will play (he is a bit unpredictable since being pizza'd) ...but with Ferdinand/Rooney/Giggs/Keane/Smith (perm any 3) starting line up, I think the handicap is a good bet.

I like the sound of the unders too in the blustery Burnley game,but may go for a lay on Liverpool at 1.58. and hope for 0-0 or 1-0. I think Blackpool look like 90 min draw.

[andycoull]

Originally Posted by thetwotwins

I like the sound of the unders too in the blustery Burnley game,but may go for a lay on Liverpool at 1.58. and hope for 0-0 or 1-0/0-1. I think Blackpool look like 90 min draw.

Similar to correct score discussion at the weekend - and I haven't worked out how to start a thread yet - combining the probable has to be the way to go.

From ladbrokes for burnley & leicester games....

Goals Odds Stakes Returns
0-1 0-1 9.75 £5.13 £50.00
2-3 2-3 3.64 £13.74 £50.00
0-1 2-3 6.20 £8.06 £50.00
2-3 0-1 5.72 £8.74 £50.00
£35.67

I can't beleive that there will be more than 3 goals - am I missing something or is this easy money ??

[Galea78]

I have to agree with WAS Burnley are amazing value, having one of the strongest seasons in some years, playing at home on a awkward pitch, that can only upset travelling teams, against a Liverpool side who IMO looked very average with Gerrard & Co, since the Chelsea game i have seen not even 10mins of decent football worthy of a top half premeirship club, the youngters may actually do better than the first squad

But seriously, unlike Arsenals youngsters Liverpools newcomers are not superstars, some will clearly never be, and i am not sure effort alone will get the past this highly determined Burnley side

I noticed Burnley @6.60 on Betfair and almost fell off my chair, i would have taken that price against the best XI based on their current form.

Liverpool on their day with a settled Morientes alongside Baros, a decent keeper and no injuries to key players can beat anyone, and would surely beat Burnley but tonight i expect a home win, possible ET but taking the larger price and smaller stake....

Also Benitez interview showed it was very obvious that it was not so important to him and the team in general, he used the 'Every game is important' line managers use when it clearly is not...he was already writing his 'The youngsters worked hard' speech...

Goodluck with your choices