FA Cup replays 17/18/19 January

[Norfolk Enchance]

Monday 17 January 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Swansea v Reading (19:45 GMT)	3.65	3.40	2.26	102%

Tuesday 18 January 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Blackpool v Leicester (19:45 GMT)	3.35	3.50	2.26	103%
Burnley v Liverpool (19:45 GMT)	8.60	4.00	1.58	100%

Wednesday 19 January 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Boston v Hartlepool (19:45 GMT)	2.94	3.45	2.44	104%
Exeter v Man Utd (19:45 GMT)	32.00	7.50	1.13	100%
Fulham v Watford (19:45 GMT)	1.59	3.80	7.60	103%
Blackburn v Cardiff (20:00 GMT)	1.48	4.33	8.60	103%

[Djordje]

Swansea have Adrian Forbes back after ban. Roberto Martinez and Kristian O'Leary are out. Reading will be without Les Ferdinand according to their official web site, Dean Morgan is fit again, but probably won't play in this game.

[swooperman]

Swansea and Bostons home form pretty good, I was on Reading first time round as swansea were without 3 midfielders but it didnt seem to hurt them! Both away sides not got good away records. Tempted with these 2 plus Blackburn who are in good form at moment and Cardiff dont travel well, think thats rock solid. Not sure on Fulham, and wouldnt touch Liverpool without team news.
Blackburn, Swansea, Boston.
Will sleep on it but will almost certainly Trixie them, may throw in Dundee Utd

[Djordje]

Swansea v Reading

Class difference between these two is huge, so take all I will write here with reserve.

Swansea lost only to high profile sides like Luton and Scunthorpe in last 10 games, including match against Reading at Madjeski Stadium. They failed to score only in two mentioned defeats, and generally did well in defense in almost all their games in last few months, except latest league match against Wycombe which finished 2-2. Against Reading they lost their 1-0 lead in dying minutes of the match.

They still have selection problems, as Roberto Martinez and Kristian O'Leary are still out through injuries, but in first match against Reading, when they had almost all key midfielders out they did well anyway. Adrian Forbes is back after ban, while Willy Gueret will be available despite he picked his 5th yellow card.

Reading had few great weeks in December, when they took valuable 2-0 win against Leicester at Walkers Stadium, and after that won home fixtures against QPR and Watford. But, since 0-3 thrashing at Preston they still can't bounce back. Dissapointing 0-0 at struggling Gills was followed with 0-1 against Derby at home, and finally they were happy to reach this second match against Swansea. Saturday's 0-0 at Burnley was good result after all.

Reading had huge problems to score lately. They scored only once in last 5 games, agianst Swansea, and as they still have selection problems in attack (both Dave Kitson and new signing Les Ferdinand are out through injuries, Shaun Goater is not included in the squad), and with few other players unavailable (Dean Morgan is fit again, but unlikely to play tonight), they could have hard times at Swansea.

I will try Swansea to win here. Reading are well known of their poor performances on the road, and as Swans are strong home side, I think motivation could do the job here. 3.30-3.40 is worth small bet on home side.

Good luck.

[alexmac]

Is it just me, or does this look like a massive price:

Man Utd -1 @ 4/11 (Blue Sq)

I havn't looked around elsewhere, but this looks like a max stakes bet to me. Man Utd have already said that they are going to field a far stronger side than they did in the first leg. Maybe Rio and Giggs will be used to get them back to fitness etc. Also, I can see Rooney featuring seeing as he has just come back from his ban etc.

What does everyone else think?

[alexmac]

Also, the 1/4 on Man Utd ht-ft looks promising.

[iainfitzy]

Hartleppol at 2.44 are great odds!
Ill be snapping that up.

[effigy]

Tonight's Swansea-Reading game is a very tasty fixture, I reckon this will be a close game, Reading, as nicely pointed out by Gorstak, are having a lot of problems scoring at the moment and their away form is not good either (1 win in 8). Although this could be the sort of game to get their shooting boots on, it's more of a case of personel than first teamers in a rut. Swansea have had back to back 0-0 draws though so are not in their best form of the season so this game is going to be very tight. I like the under 2.5 here but I think I'll go:

Draw @9/4
1-1 Draw @11/2
Swansea H/T Draw F/T @16/1

I do fancy Swansea to score first here, I think they will come out of the traps quickest but will fail to hang on in the long run. If it goes ET it's anyone's

SWANSEA 1 READING 1

Good luck all

[effigy]

Also does anyone else think that Watford, given their cup form are tasty at 7.60? I watched Fulham v W.Brom yesterday and Fulham look very shaky at home.

[swooperman]

I must admit that i wouldnt touch Fulham at 8/15 (Hills), I just think theyre too inconsistent and the odds dont appeal, and Watford have to be worth a look, but Ive not looked at team news yet. hartlepool look good odds but Boston are quite decen at home, off the top of my head. I think Blackburn are nailed on but poor odds.
Alex that looks a good price on Man Utd and I might have a bit of that.

[swooperman]

I'm having swansea and the draw, doubled with Dundee united, which might already be off for all I know

[Danny Cash]

Might have a go at this while the correct scores are all the rage, bearing in mind Reading are favourites to win and keep plenty of clean sheets.

Swansea v Reading *EFIT ALL PRICES BETFAIR*

0-0 @ 9.2 £9.38
0-1 @ 8.4 £10.28
0-2 @ 11.00 £7.85
1-1 @ 7.8 £11.07
1-2 @ 10.50 £8.22
0-3 @ 27.00 £3.20

staked £50 returns £86.34 = 1.73 *EDIT BEFORE COMMISSION*

People might say, why not do under 2.5 goals, but the price on under 2.5 goals is 1.73 anyway and you don't get added cover of 1-2 and 0-3 do you?

It's also a better price than laying Swansea.

What do people think?

Danny

[effigy]

I think it's a decent bet because I honestly don't forsee Swansea scoring more than one goal. I also don't see Reading scoring more than two goals, therefore I think your bet looks pretty good. I actually reckon you could confidantly get rid of the 3-0 to Reading and put 1-0 to Swansea just in case of the shock, but maybe that doesn't fit in your system it's just I cannot see this being 3-0 at all.

[Danny Cash]

Good point about the 1-0 . That is the score I fear the most.

However, you can't have it all can you. The only reason I put 3-0 in, is down to the massive price and if Reading go 2-0 up early I'd like the extra cover!

Let's see eh?

Good luck with your bet too mate.

Danny

[StevieFlack]

No No No.

Exeter certainly will not lose.

Go Santos Gaia 1st goal -2/1 exeter :scorecast

Pays 1160/1 on stan james

[denisl]

Swansea vs Reading

Unders is a good bet but bit low @ 1.7 for me. I think it will be tight till half time and with readings problems scoring and swansea playing at home i fancy swansea to nick it in the 2nd half. maybe even 2

Draw/Swansea @ 9.2

Swansea 2-0 @ 23

[caber tosser]

dont be so quick to right of gretna in their tie with dundee united if you can et a handicap bet in favour of gretna get tore in

[Beanie]

I've got for a small punt on 1-1, and first goal Lee Trundle, just for interests sake.

[Djordje]

Burnley v Liverpool



Burnley are one of the best defensive sides in The Championship, and they prove it from week to week. They are not the greatest attacking force, but they rarely fail to score, and they are also one of “under” masters of this season. They are on good run lately, with only three defeats in last 10 games, two of them away at Sunderland and Plymouth and home defeat against Ipswich.



Clarets are stronger for Micah Hyde in this match, but James O'Connor, Michael Duff and Graham Branch are unavailable.



I can’t tell you anything about Liverpool that you already don’t know. I’ll mention only their recent tendency to have low scoring affairs.



Reds are expected to field team without few important players. Captain Steven Gerrard, Steve Finnan and new signings Fernando Morientes and Mauricio Pellegrino will miss this game for different reasons, so players like David Raven, Neil Mellor and Stephen Warnock could make one of rare starts.



There’s no doubt that Liverpool are better side even without key players and with several youngsters in their squad, but Burnley won’t be walkovers for them. In front of 20,000 fans, and probably on pretty poor pitch, I think that they can hold Liverpool to 0-0 here, so one of my bets could be Under 2.5. Another one Burnley maybe, as these odds published by Bet365 are way too high for a cup match.



I’m thinking of :

2 units on Burnley @7.00, Bet365.

4 units on Under 2.5 @1.75-1.80



But morning is smarter than evening, so I’ll make decision tomorrow.

[ross h]

Originally Posted by caber tosser

dont be so quick to right of gretna in their tie with dundee united if you can et a handicap bet in favour of gretna get tore in

Aye a 5 goal start might just see you through.

Me and my big mouth.