England > Premiership - March 18/19

[NIGWAFC]

A possible value bet this weekend is ourselves Wigan. When both teams are at their best reckon theres not much between us, hence our close league positions. However Ive heard rumours today that City may rest a few of their players for the Cup game they have on Monday. These include the influencial Barton, and the highly rated Samaras. Given that were more or less at full strength and have no match next week we will certainly field our best 11, and that for me gives us the advantage. A similar situation arose when we played them in the FA Cup the other month, with ourselves fielding a weakened team as we had a mid-week game v Arsenal in the semi of the carling cup - a game which saw City sneak it 1-0. Can see a similar reverse scoreline come Satdy, and with a decent price at over 4s, we are well worth a punt with possibly the draw saver.

[SecondSight]

Blackburn/Boro

I think people are going over board on Blackburn chances. They did win last week but by all accounts they were fortunate.

Boro will be a bit fatigued, but they have enough players available at present to rotate the team. I expect between 7 and 9 of the team at Blackburn to have been rested from the Roma game. Morale is very high from an amazing defeat of Roma (a team who had just set an Italian record of 11 straight league wins).

I can't understand where the quote of shaky recent form comes from - they have knocked Stuttgart/Roma/Preston out of the cup competitions, and beaten Chelsea, WBA and Birmingham in the league with just a defeat at Charlton on the negative side of the equation.

After the Stuttgart games they won at Preston and WBA. As Getenby says they were the better team (mainly reserves) at Charlton last week, but lost. OK Blackburn are a bit tougher than Charlton, but the best odds for Blackburn are 5/6, which does not shout out value to me, never mind the 8/11 commonly available.

My true odds

Blackburn 53% (10/11)
Draw 26% (11/4)
Boro 21% (15/4)

[deBourek]

well,secondsight,this is reasonable opinion,but IMO m'boro is very very tired of all this games.on another side,blackburn is almost unbroken at home,and I don't see any other result exept clear homewin.(sorry,I know that my english is shitty)

[Just1Second]

Sanderland has no aims any more this year IMO except maybe pride.On contrary Bolton has everythin' to play for.Odds for HW sucks badly that's why i think it's better choice go for OVER(Q2.06 _@10Bet) here and price is awesome


ps.seems to me Bolton will 'em for good


J1S

[leecrowe007]

Everton to win is going to be my big bet of the weekend. The value is outstanding just looking at the 2 teams current form, and I'm sure somebody was saying at work that angel and baros are both out?

[Sherman Blue]

Originally Posted by SecondSight

Blackburn/Boro

I think people are going over board on Blackburn chances. They did win last week but by all accounts they were fortunate.

Boro will be a bit fatigued, but they have enough players available at present to rotate the team. I expect between 7 and 9 of the team at Blackburn to have been rested from the Roma game. Morale is very high from an amazing defeat of Roma (a team who had just set an Italian record of 11 straight league wins).

I can't understand where the quote of shaky recent form comes from - they have knocked Stuttgart/Roma/Preston out of the cup competitions, and beaten Chelsea, WBA and Birmingham in the league with just a defeat at Charlton on the negative side of the equation.

After the Stuttgart games they won at Preston and WBA. As Getenby says they were the better team (mainly reserves) at Charlton last week, but lost. OK Blackburn are a bit tougher than Charlton, but the best odds for Blackburn are 5/6, which does not shout out value to me, never mind the 8/11 commonly available.

My true odds

Blackburn 53% (10/11)
Draw 26% (11/4)
Boro 21% (15/4)

I think people are interested in Blackburn not bcos Boro are poor right now but bcos Rovers have been very strong at home. Blk are 10-2-2 at home this season only Chelsea and Liverpool have better home records. Boro are 4-2-7 away. I watched the game last week and IMO Blk weren't 'lucky' they were just more clinical. Villa wasted chances early when they were on top and were made to pay 2nd half when Rovers were on top.

Boro are on good form no question (6th in current PL form table) - so for me comes down to who plays (Boeteng and Yakubu are the key's that would make me not back Blackburn)

[nastro 1888]

theres no reason to disregard any of the above posts, this is why its to be avoided IMO for betting selections, arsenal and man utd are the only teans Id pay to see from a footballing perspective and if both of these play to full potential they will win football matches. Every team in the epl have players to turn a game regardless of form, but only arsenal this week 1.43 and man utd 1.60 look value to me.

[adythom]

I hear Spurs haven't won at St.Andrews for 20yrs!-though how often they've played there in that time I'm not sure!
and Boltons ability to raise their game for the big names is no secret!-what's less well known is their alarming habit of lowering their game for the dross! I'd be thinking very hard before a big punt on Bolton-[speaking as a bolton fan!]

[BillyHills]

I cant see the 3 obvious results being upset this week.
Arsenal are playing really well at home once again and surely have too much class for Charlton who may have eyes on the FA Cup early next week. Bolton have been bust lately but cant see how Sunderland expect to get a result at the reebok. They look totally down on confidence and always bemoan there luck or lack of it. The truth is their not good enough and Bolton should beat them even if they are a touch fatigued.
The Double is 1.86 at Betfair and i reckon thats fair value.

Man Utd are palying some good stuff just now and although away at WBA can see them coasting to victory by 2 or 3 goals. The baggies are lucky to have 3 worse teams in the Premiership this year, i still think they will go down and Robson will try and play it tight like he did against Chelsea, once Utd break them down they will have no answers.
1.54 at Betfair.

[Sherman Blue]

Originally Posted by adythom

I hear Spurs haven't won at St.Andrews for 20yrs!-though how often they've played there in that time I'm not sure!
and Boltons ability to raise their game for the big names is no secret!-what's less well known is their alarming habit of lowering their game for the dross! I'd be thinking very hard before a big punt on Bolton-[speaking as a bolton fan!]

Great advise adythom - for me these odds on Bolton in current situation make them unbackable. Demoralised, tired and expected to make a number of changes. Sunderland will win a couple more games before the season end and this could be the one....

[Djordje]

I missed Everton @evens to beat Villa, and as prices are already down to 1.8-1.9, really no need to get involved with this match. Actually, value is now definately on Aston Villa, and prices around 4.5 are ridiculously high.

But I'll miss this one, as the whole round in EPL probably.

Btw, completely agree with SecondSight about Boro's chances at Blackburn. Blackburn are having great season, but they are overestimated in this match.

The only reason agaisnt Boro in this one is tired legs after UEFA match vs Roma (and I saw that match - too many hard tackles on both sides which will affect their fitness I think). But not good enough reaosn to back Blackburn here.

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Everton X Aston Villa
Selection	Home Win
Strength	10/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 1.91 (Back)
Reasoning	Boy! Do I need to do something about my performance in EPL!!! Everton went a step ahead of my expectation when they won 2-1 over Fulham instead of my expected 1-0. Unfortunately I don't have an interest on betting on exact scores this weekend (at least not so far), but I reccon this one should end in 1-0 or 2-0. Why? First, Villa -after drawing to Chelsea and winning 4-0 over 'Boro- have not registered a "resounding" win in 6 consecutive games! They won ONCE over Portsmouth, and that was only a 1-0 victory. They also lost to both Newcastle and Blackburn and drew to Charlton in EPL, while drawing and losing in the FA cup to Man City. The lack of productivity in the frontline has been a curse after scoring those 4 against Middlesbrough. And eventhough Baros & company ahve not been exactly doing a great job, the lack of all strikers should be a real tough obstacle for the Villan's to overcome. I mean, would you expect them to score without Baros, Phillips & Angel? Villa have not won here in 4 games, and I don't think they can win without a single decent striker today either, while Everton have been unbeaten at home in 2006. They've even managed wins over tougher oppositions, such as Arsenal & Blackburn, and I can see them building on it. Since they lost to Liverpool here, Everton have played 5 games at home in EPL and won them all scoring 8 goals and conceding 2, so I think the logical bet would be to back them for another win, unless Sorensen intends to upset me in person!! *LOL* Good Luck

[Sherman Blue]

Not adding much new here but Everton look like a great chance at anything evens or above. In v.strong home form and Villa lost their way a little after a mini revival. Have some of that - My biggest PL bet this wkend

Arsenal & Utd look like an obvious double

Decent value for Wigan and Pompey both against tired sides who lack squad depth and have cup games coming up so could rest players + Pompey also fighting for their life not exactly what Wham need right now!

V.Small Outside bet on S'land (for reason above)

[Zozo the Duke]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Everton - Aston Villa
Selection	Everton (0) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	6/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Interwetten @ 1.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Everton had great match against Fulham last week and they won comfortably 3:1.. Everton is playing in great form in 2006 and won all matches at home in this year. In fact, Everton has only one loss in Premier League in last 10 matches. Aston Villa is very unpredictable team, they were better opponent but the failed to turn their chances into goals and then lost from Blackburn 2:0 in their last match in the league. I must admit that their strikers missed a lot of great opportunities on that match and I thought that the luck will turn on their next match and that was the only reason why I did not backed Manchester City in the FA Cup replay. But on that match they were much worse than on match against Blackburn so I decided now to back the team who is playing in better form, Everton. Aston Villa is having huge problems upfront. Phillips and Baros are out, Angel is doubtful and Milner probably will not play too. Only good thing for the team is returning of Hendrie, but I cannot see Aston Villa scoring against tough Everton defense without the best attackers. Everton is boosted by returning of van der Meyde, Carsley and Naysmith. I expect Everton to dominate and to continue their great run this 2006 and to take three points to get their confidence on even higher level in front of next round Liverpool derby. Aston Villa won first match 4:0, when Everton was in downtrend and this is right chance for Moyse to revenge for this huge defeat.

[Zozo the Duke]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Bolton - Sunderland
Selection	Bolton (-1) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	7/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	Bolton lost in the midweek FA Cup in the extra time from West ham. This will certainly affect on players performance for this match. That loss is having two bad effects. Physical and mental. Physical because probably players are tired after that match and mental because every loss is painful but loss after extra time is very painful to all players. Sunderland changed McCarty but he wasn't the reason of their awful display this season. This poor season is mainly because of their lack of quality. I think that many of Sunderland players do not posses enough quality to play top football. They showed to us many time this season. Only thing that I admire Sunderland players is their desire to play. They are fighting a lot, but only fighting is not bringing points. Allardyce lost two points in first match between these two teams (ended 0:0) and now for sure is searching for revenge. He wants the England job very much and he will do everything he could to catch some European spot for next season to prove to all that he is capable of great things. Bolton will be without Diuf and Sunderland only important absence has in the eyes of their best midfielder (and player for sure) Arca.

[Zozo the Duke]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	WBA - Manchester U.
Selection	Manchester U (-1) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	8/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.93 (Back)
Reasoning	Manchester really impressed me in their last match against Newcastle. They were playing perfect. They did not allow to Newcastle players to create a single chance and if they wanted they would trash Newcastle more than 2:0. WBA managed to equalize against Birmingham derby and they even had some chances to win all three points on that match. Birmingham is on bad run at the moment. They have only one win it their last 7 matches. Manchester has great Rooney who is playing maybe the best football in the world right now. He is unstoppable. He is creating chances to the others, passing, crossing, dribbling, shooting and he is doing all of these just great. I really like to watch this Manchester, offensive and without respect for the others. Finally Fergie found the right formula with Ronaldo, Giggs and Park in the midfield. These three + Rooney are in my opinion, one of the most creative attacking lines in the world.

[bermenstein]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Blackburn V Middlesboro
Selection	Draw
Strength	5/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	PaddyPower @3.4
Reasoning	Both Blackburn and Middlesboro are seriously overdue a draw according to the current streaks tables. With both teams not having hit a draw in their last 8 games each, now seems a most likely occurance.

[jakeday]

		Team	Total	Won	Draw	Lost	Goals	Points
1.	(1)	Chelsea	15	14	1	0	35 - 8	43
2.	(3)	Liverpool	16	12	3	1	25 - 6	39
3.	(5)	Arsenal	14	10	2	2	32 - 9	32
4.	(4)	Tottenham	15	9	5	1	25 - 12	32
5.	(6)	Blackburn	14	10	2	2	24 - 13	32
6.	(2)	Manchester U	13	9	3	1	27 - 8	30
7.	(16)	Fulham	14	9	2	3	25 - 17	29
8.	(10)	Manchester C	15	9	2	4	24 - 13	29
9.	(7)	Bolton	13	8	4	1	20 - 7	28
10.	(12)	Newcastle	14	7	5	2	17 - 10	26
11.	(9)	West Ham	14	7	2	5	24 - 18	23
12.	(11)	Everton	14	7	1	6	14 - 16	22
13.	(13)	Charlton	15	6	3	6	17 - 17	21
14.	(15)	Middlesbrough	15	5	5	5	21 - 24	20
15.	(8)	Wigan	15	6	2	7	18 - 19	20
16.	(17)	West Bromwich	15	6	1	8	20 - 19	19
17.	(14)	Aston Villa	14	4	4	6	15 - 17	16
18.	(18)	Birmingham	14	4	3	7	16 - 17	15
19.	(19)	Portsmouth	14	3	5	6	10 - 17	14
20.	(20)	Sunderland	15	0	4	11	9 - 28	4

Look at Blackburn's record at home. Only concern is that Boro are getting better, but there surely are worse even money shots around today!

[bigcol]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Blackburn v Middlesbrough
Selection	Middlesbrough
Strength	5/10
Date	18/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Betdaq @ 4.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Boro are riding high after their european expliots and are so much more solid than earlier on in the season. Blackburn are supposedly now a class side with great form but I've yet to be convinced by them. I think Boro at nearly 5 are good value.

[PompeyPunt]

West Ham -0.25 (1.93) @ Pointbet

West Ham may well rest a few players, but at Upton park i think they still might have abit to much for my Pompey side it has to be said A great result for us at home last weekend, and Fratton Park i sensed could suddenly beleive that survival is possible, and in my heart as a loving fan of the club, i do to, but also as a sports bettor, i have to say it dosn't look likely still. Today is another do or die, and we may well do it, but at these odds West Ham are pure value, so have to be tried. 5/10 stakes here. And this could be the most contradicting post ever, because Play up Pompey