England > Premiership - Dec 10-12

[AK1979]

Boro didn't play in Europe this week. Sure those comments aren't aimed at Liverpool AK?

Erm.....good point David! Not sure why they are printing that then. I wouldnt have thought its aimed at Liverpool. They refer to it in the match preview as well. Lets scrap that then......

[SecondSight]

AK via RFO - Please note Boro did not play in midweek, first time for a long time grant you! It was Liverpool who played in midweek at Chelsea. So the stats say the opposite i.e. Boro do well when they have not played in Europe midweek.

I think 4 out of the last 7 games at Anfield have been 0-0 or 1-1 between Liverpool and Boro, so I would have thought there is at least 28% chance of a draw. Therefore I have taken the 3.95 available on Betfair for a draw as a value bet. I know Liverpool are on a marvellous run, but their winning league run will be halted sometime, probably when its not expected. Wigan appeared to have gifted them their first 2 goals last week and Boro put up a decent performance at Chelsea and were half an inch from getting a surprise draw.

I haven't heard any team news from the Boro camp this week, the fitness of Mendieta, Parlour, Parnaby and Nemeth was all being checked. I would only expect 2 of them to be available, but it would be 2 more players than they had at Chelsea as none of the 4 were available at Chelsea.

[Djordje]

Bolton vs Aston Villa

I don't know why, but few bookies there offer some really great odds on Bolton. Aston Villa made few results lately, but if you take a closer look they managed to beat Charlton and Sunderland (no comment) and to take point from Newcastle (no big deal). Bolton completely outplayed Gunners in last round, and having in mind their already good form even before that match, the only thing that croses my mind about this match is clear home win.

Bolton @1.85, 7/10 gamebookers

[Sherman Blue]

NIGWAFC -

Interested to hear how you think PJ will approach the game at Stamford Bridge? From what i've seen of Wigan they have been fairly positive away from home and look for goals. If they do this on Sat I'd be very tempted to take Chelsea on the handicap or the Over at 1.83 Stan James on goals - could either be 3-2 or 4-0 if Wigan play their normal game.

Also for me DeZeuw out is a major blow for you - I was shocked he left Pompey and for me is one of the key reasons their struggling and your not.

[adythom]

bellamy out for blackburn, best left alone this one IMO!

owen will face late fitness test before arsenal game- perhaps best to hang fire before a punt? I think newcastle have only lost twice with him playing- don't hold me to that though!
they are 1-3-4 without him though!
emre is another they'll miss!

arsenal without henry are 2-2-2 ! 6-0-2 with him! the two defeats he's played in were at chelsea and bolton last week- when he hit the woodwork twice! now that's what I call INFLUENTIAL!

[Citizen Kane]

I think there are a few games this week that may result in a few goals so the overs look attractive.

First up both Newcastle and Arsenal have defences that are liable to conceed goals on occasions so I really like the chance of overs around 2.10.

Chelsea/Wigan, Liv/Mid and MU/Everton are also games that I favour the home team to get at least 2 or 3 with the opposition also capable of getting one in.

Suppose what I'm trying to say is I like the look of all these games being at least 2-0 to the favoured side with more upside than down.

Good luck all.

Cheers
CK

[Big Welly]

Quote

Originally Posted by Paul Ross
Wigan 18.00?? That's a bit harsh surely!

Although it does look like they are heading back to reality a touch now.


You are right Paul, Big price indeed, but a profit could be made in running. Take the 18's and hope Wigan defend well for a good while, then lay as the price drops

Welly

[Newton-Heath]

I would stay away Charlton vs Sunderland.
These are two teams on a very bad streak.
Although you might think that Sunderland could win here simply because they have to turn things around soon, you may not forget that the teams position at the table is a resultat of their achievement so far this season.

Chelsea is surely going to win against Wigan, but I'll stay away because of the odds presentet on a homewin.

Newcastle vs Arsenal could be a good bet if you're backing the awaywin.
Why?
The hometeam has managed to score just two goals in the last four matches.
There's also injuries that will worry the hometeam.


Well, this is some of my thougths about this weekends matches.

Good luck, comrads!

[aliando]

Does anyone know at what point it'll be known if Owen is playing? Have found reports saying 'late fitness test' and 'unlikely to be fit' but nothing concrete.

[Rumlesen]

Birmingham for me. Fulham is without Boa Morte and Diop, witch i consider as a heavy loos for them. Also Claus Jensen who would be a normal starter is ruled out. Right back Volz is also out. Fulham yet to win away from home. Big chance for Birmingham here

[adythom]

it's the late kick off,Aliando! 5.15 premplus game

souness will be in no rush to make the anouncement -even if he's in a rush to get owen back!
do team sheets have to be in 30mins before kick off?

[adythom]

bet365 are offering 1.95 over 2.5gls, and 1.9 both teams score!

and given charltons home record and sunderlands away- there's a fair chance of both!
the HT/FT could be worth a wild punt here aswell- 1/2 and 2/1 are offered at up to 45.0 on betfair and both these teams get jittery towards the end if they're trying to defend a lead!

according to the footballanorak long shot league table [odds of 3.5 or over] newcastle have lost all seven games when such an underdog![as they are today!] though only one of these was at home!
infact they're the poorest long shot team in britain! and sit at the bottom of this table! -not a stat you'd bet your life savings on -but food for thought eh?

[SecondSight]

Good Mornin all!

I think Chelsea are due a home draw, I think they have had 8 straight home wins in the EPL. They drew 4 home games last year? if they draw say 3 this year, that 3 from 11, so on that logic the game today would have 25% chance of a draw. I got 7.2 on Betfair which gives anything over 17% chance as value. Ladbrokes quote 1.14 for a Chelsea win which is atrocious value in my opinion, no wonder they make so much money. Chelsea should be 1.25.

Arca is Sunderland's best player and he's back today which should boost their chance of a result. I agree game should have goals, but Charlton may be cautious after letting in 5 last week. Its funny how sometimes to most obvious goals over games often are unders and vice versa.

Agree Fulham could struggle at Birmingham who must get a home win soon, but it will be very tight. Could be some argie bargie in this game.

I think West Ham's league position is a little flattering to them, I would expect Blackburn to finish above them come the end of the season. Some value there above Evens, even with players missing.

Newcastle as said before are trading on reputation at present. They are no better than a mid table team, but keep getting priced as a top 8 team.

[PompeyPunt]

Charlton -1 (2.27) @ Pointbet

Well Charlton here are a huge price IMO for this handicap, with being 60% favourites to win this one, this handicap is out of line. Sunderland didn't do to bad at Spurs at last week, but at the end of the day, they still lost, and they are still sitting at the bottom of the table with one of the qorst squads the Premiership has seen in many years. They won't of course lose every game, and will notch up a few more wins on the board before their imminent relegation, but i don't see it today, as Charlton are desperate for a win, and there is no better team for them to stop their own terrible run than here against the worst side. Worth a 6/10 shot.

[Galea78]

I also forget to mention that captain Boa Morte is out too, very much home win, if i could add more money i would. DNB is so safe IMO but taking the odds I think this time.

GL

Sport	Football (Britain)
Selection	Birmingham
Date	2005-12-10
Event	England - Premier League
Bookmaker/Price	Betdaq @ 2.42 (Back)
Reasoning	Birmingham v Fulham Fulham play some great football this year, best 8 in league IMO but today a gap appears in the centre, Diop is out, you can not underestimate the importance of this player, holds the centre of the park and allows Steed Malbranque to run free, with Jensen out also and Philippe Christanval still sidelined things are looking dire for fulham. Philippe Christanval can play as emergency in centre but of course Diop and Jensen are the main two, who else can play there? Answer, nobody. Volz who has impressed at the back is also out making this close to a reserve side. Birmingham looked good v West Ham and were unlucky to lose, striking the post, forcing saves, Pennant lively, Dunn gettting to form, a must win game and a game they will win for sure.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by adythom

it's the late kick off,Aliando! 5.15 premplus game

souness will be in no rush to make the anouncement -even if he's in a rush to get owen back!
do team sheets have to be in 30mins before kick off?

balls! i'm gonna do a stupid accy for the hell of it (will post later) and wanted ALL the team news first.. ah well...my just say sod it and have a laugh!

cheers for the info mate!

[weeby]

I think Charlton are worth a punt today. I saw us play last week against Man City, and we were poor. However, we did create some chances and the City goals (all 5!) were soft, so weren't a completely lost cause.

Apparently, Murphy, Powell and Young have had a players meeting this week to try and stop the rot.

As has been said, there is no better opportunity than this for Charlton to get their season going again. Some have short memories; it wasn't that long ago that people were arguing that Murphy & Bent should be in contention for an England starting place. Good players don't become bad players over night; they do, however, lose confidence, and think it is this that is Charlton's biggest obstacle.

On paper Charlton's first team is superior to Sunderland's in every area. Charlton should be fired up for this one, so I will stick my neck out, and say Charlton should win this by a couple of goals.

[Rumlesen]

I am taking the under 2.5 goals in Liverpool-Boro. 1.70 Scandicbookmaker. Take a look at the last 14 meetings.

13-08-05 Middlesbrough Liverpool 0 : 0 Premier League 2005
30-04-05 Liverpool Middlesbrough 1 : 1 Premier League 2005
20-11-04 Middlesbrough Liverpool 2 : 0 Premier League 2004
10-11-04 Liverpool Middlesbrough 2 : 0 Carling Cup 2004
02-05-04 Liverpool Middlesbrough 2 : 0 Premier League 2004
22-11-03 Middlesbrough Liverpool 0 : 0 Premier League 2003
08-02-03 Liverpool Middlesbrough 1 : 1 Premier League 2003
09-11-02 Middlesbrough Liverpool 1 : 0 Premier League 2002
16-03-02 Middlesbrough Liverpool 1 : 2 Premier League 2002
08-12-01 Liverpool Middlesbrough 2 : 0 Premier League 2001
20-01-01 Liverpool Middlesbrough 0 : 0 Premier League 2001
26-12-00 Middlesbrough Liverpool 1 : 0 Premier League 2000
22-01-00 Liverpool Middlesbrough 0 : 0 Premier League 2000
21-08-99 Middlesbrough Liverpool 1 : 0 Premier League 1999

Only one went over

2 of Liverpools last 8 games have gone over. I can see Boro struggle to score against a very thight defence.

[adythom]

looking like a good pick so far Rumlesen

[adythom]

Originally Posted by aliando

balls! i'm gonna do a stupid accy for the hell of it (will post later) and wanted ALL the team news first.. ah well...my just say sod it and have a laugh!

cheers for the info mate!

re;owen fit or no?

apparently he's fit and will play!

still fancy arsenal! though 3-1 now instead of 3-0!