England: Premiership Apr 21-22

[Appy Ammer]

Originally Posted by Nade

West Ham to survive?? Are you lot on the charlie or what. I'm seeing some very odd plays in here right now. We've played 34games in the EPL this season, i.e. their potential is 19th position - where they deserve to be. The last few pressure games ie sheff utd, watford, fulham, charlton - they haven't won - only getting 1 pt out of these, curbishley admitted himself they were rubbish under pressure. Might as well bang my head against a brick wall

I'm with this bloke.....

[fenlandtiger]

Watford v Man City

Not tip, just some information.

My own odds are HW 52% compared with 34% implied by current Betfair odds (2.94). IMHO Watford are too long here, and City too short.

Watford have had some of good games recently, in tonking Portsmouth at home and giving Man Utd a decent game for a while in the cup. They have finally been scoring some goals, and Marlon King is back.

Man City have been on the up, and currently have the 3rd best 5 game away form in the league. However, I would not be confident backing them to win this game at the current odds.

Watford will be relegated this Saturday if they don't win. Though the real must win games have already been lost for them.

The fat lady is making the trip to Vicarage Road. Will she start singing when the ref blows the final whistle or will it be a wasted journey?

[Mr Flamboyant]

No-brainer double for me:

Liverpool / Man Utd (-140) ----- 1 unit

gl

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

We have the momentum with playing well, charlton have been playing crap.

Charlton might be playing crap (not too sure bout that either) but theyve only lost one in their last 7 and have 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 4 home games.

In comparison Sheff Utd have a 1-1-5 record in their last 7 games and have lost their last 8 aways.

And on top of that, Charlton have scored 7 and conceded 0 in their last 4 homes, Sheff Utd have scored 0 and conceded 10 in their last 4 aways.

Anything around EVS for Charlton looks worth taking to me.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Not keen on taking Man Utd at such a short price.

Although the form is all in Man Utds favour, Middlesbrough have only lost once at OT in the league since 2002. This may have been done to the McLaren factor but its a little concerning on such a short price bet.

[Nade]

Originally Posted by WorkingForTheEnemy

Charlton might be playing crap (not too sure bout that either) but theyve only lost one in their last 7 and have 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 4 home games.

In comparison Sheff Utd have a 1-1-5 record in their last 7 games and have lost their last 8 aways.

And on top of that, Charlton have scored 7 and conceded 0 in their last 4 homes, Sheff Utd have scored 0 and conceded 10 in their last 4 aways.

Anything around EVS for Charlton looks worth taking to me.

Granted charlton have only lost one in their last 7, but they have played: West Ham, Watford, Newcastle, Wigan, Man City, Reading and Everton i.e all teams in the bottom half other than reading who are mid-table then lost to everton who are actually a good team out of these.

In comparison in the last 7 sheff utd have played: Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea, Bolton, Newcastle, West Ham and Man Utd. All but newcastle are challenging in europe and west ham we battered so imo it's a bit of a false statistic really looking on recent form.

Sheff Utd were playing great picking up points went 10pts clear of relegation then ran into this set of fixtures and were dragged back in it, it's not as if we've 'blown up' as the west ham result showed - our 'easiest' match for 2months. Just relaying the facts.

Can i just also add that Warnock now knows as highlighted v Man Utd that when we play with two attacking players up front we look like scoring goals, so don't expect the usual 4-5-1. Warnock will have the troops fired up for an attacking battle.

[nastro 1888]

good info nade a bit of analysis behind stats to the naked-eye is invaluable - personally I think this game will be tighter, theres too much at stake and IMO there will be a 4 5 1 against a 4 5 1, the paramount bottom limit on this game is not to lose, neither manager will be happy with 1 point but losing the game isnt an option to either team.

if this game was played 7 times over there would be a goalless draw IMO - 8/1 is a value bet IMO.

[Nade]

Originally Posted by nastro 1888

good info nade a bit of analysis behind stats to the naked-eye is invaluable - personally I think this game will be tighter, theres too much at stake and IMO there will be a 4 5 1 against a 4 5 1, the paramount bottom limit on this game is not to lose, neither manager will be happy with 1 point but losing the game isnt an option to either team.

if this game was played 7 times over there would be a goalless draw IMO - 8/1 is a value bet IMO.

Cheers, i don't know if i'm coming across as agressive or anything tbh, i don't mean it but i think it's important not to write any team off (especially my Blades )and try and give people a well-rounded view of events. It's just frustrating to see people say charlton are clear favourites against us when i know there's a buzz around Sheff Utd again and they're all focussed on staying up and when warnock gets the team focussed they are superb.

To be honest i just want the game out of the way as quickly as possible!

[nastro 1888]

Originally Posted by Nade

Cheers, i don't know if i'm coming across as agressive or anything tbh, i don't mean it but i think it's important not to write any team off (especially my Blades )and try and give people a well-rounded view of events. It's just frustrating to see people say charlton are clear favourites against us when i know there's a buzz around Sheff Utd again and they're all focussed on staying up and when warnock gets the team focussed they are superb.

To be honest i just want the game out of the way as quickly as possible!

stick up for your blades nade I wouldnt bet against them this weekend.


I called it wrong last week and put my hands up, but with warnock behind them for a fight I cant see sheff utd being relegated - pathetic decision at OT for the penalty on wed night which could have been 2-1 with utd down to 10 men, showed all warnocks emotions.

[Nade]

Originally Posted by nastro 1888

stick up for your blades nade I wouldnt bet against them this weekend.


I called it wrong last week and put my hands up, but with warnock behind them for a fight I cant see sheff utd being relegated - pathetic decision at OT for the penalty on wed night which could have been 2-1 with utd down to 10 men, showed all warnocks emotions.

The stress is getting to me too lol. Seriously though i'm not saying at all we are going to win or it'll be an easy game but similarly to the west ham game - if we play well we will get something out of the game, unlike if we play well against man utd we still won'y get anything out of the game. It will be a fight and one hell of a game and an edgy one at that, going back to your bookings bet i have a feeling now on a red card or two as there is so much at stake, although it could just pan out as a boring 0-0 which is likely. GL on your bets Nastro and cheers for the support GL everyone.

Unless anyone has any queries on Sheff Utd which i'll gladly give my thoughts on

[icon]

i think man u is a good bet by itself or a double up with someone else.
i understand the away team have had a bit of luck at old trafford. but they have only one victory away from home all season and man u have only lost 1 drawn 1 and won the rest. i just think man u are too motivated for this one + i don't rate southgate as an manager. i think man u to win 3-0.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Dont get me wrong, nothing against the Blades. In fact I fancied them to stay up from Day 1 and hope they do. I have huge respect for Warnock as a manager.

[Ron Mexico]

Originally Posted by nastro 1888

much a muchness as midweek - liverpool and Man Utd home to completely inferior opposition is an 80% return on your money overnight ( 4/5 ) you simply do not get investments like this anywhere.

Just got on this.
It's as close to free money
as I can find.




(hope I'm laughing tomorrow.)

[QuietLife]

Fulham v Blackburn.

if Sanchez has any ambition to be manager, then this is a must home win in my opinion. close game last time at reading. expecting an improvement.

WHU v Everton.

its a must win game for WHU but i think its too late. Everton on a roll and finishing this season strongly, in fact the best season finish for a while, or so it seems to me.

[G:G]

Event	Charlton v Sheffield Utd
Selection	Sheffield Utd (+0.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	6/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betdaq @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	This is, of course a very important match for both teams, no need to explain that, but I certainly don't agree with Charlton being such huge favourites. yes, Charlton are 2-2-1 last 5, but when looking at the temas they played the record is not that impressing. The one loss came last round vs Everton, the only top team out of those 5. Sheffield U were good vs Man U, but lost, no shame in that, the match before that they beat West Ham 3-0. The loss at home to Newcastle was a let down, but loosing away to Chelsea and Bolton not very surprising. All this put together I see a close match and I definately rate Sheffield as good as Charlton, so for me the value is with Blades here, almost evens for + 0.5 must be worth a try.

[mileni4uk]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Liverpool - Wigan
Selection	Liverpool
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	Difference in class here. Liverpool fight for the 3rd spot. Wigan fight to survive, but they are so poor defensively and Liverpool are really cruising at the moment. Probably Rafa will give a rest to some of his stars, but the likes of Robie Fowler and Co. will play and they are well capable of winning this match.

[mileni4uk]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Fulham - Blackburn
Selection	Blackburn (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.55 (Lay)
Reasoning	Don't know what happened with the Man C game, but Fulham didn't show ahything. They are fighting against relegation though and this is a must win game for them. The home form is what saves them every year and the team will be spot on today. First home game for the new manager. Blackburn lost the semi-final of the cup and the moral in the team is very low. They can get a draw, but I doubt they will win the game, so I'm laying them.

[mileni4uk]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	West Ham - Everton
Selection	Everton (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.05 (Lay)
Reasoning	Another relegation fighter against a team from the 1st half of the table. Everton are in form, but West Ham showed great spirit against Arsenal. They lost at Shef U, but they know, that if Charlton win or draw today they will be a lot closer to survive. Everton are fighting for UEFA cup spot, but they are sure to be playing in Europe next season with the current 5th and the Champions League place is 6 points away and I doubt they can catch Arsenal. West Ham will go out today and do everything they can. All I can see here is 1 or X and not a 2.

[NIGWAFC]

MMMMM...Emile Heskey to score first and Wigan to win 1-0 @91/1 with bet365 is a little tempter for me Granted were more than likely to get slaughtered, but this is the sort of game which could spring up a suprise. L'pool are playing Chelsea midweek so will their minds be completely focused? Will Rafa be playing his strongest team? Were desperate for the points trying to avoid relegation. Jewell guided Bradford to a win v L'pool a number of years ago when Bradford were staving off relegation. Heskey returns to Anfield for the first time with Wigan. Has scored 3 goals in the last 3 games. Could just be one of those fixtures where the results already been written and which appeases the bookies!

[mileni4uk]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Tottenham - Arsenal
Selection	Arsenal (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.78 (Lay)
Reasoning	The London derby will be entertaining as always. Arsenal are 4th and all they can do is compete against Liverpool for the 3rd. Whatever they do they won't lose the 4th spot. The season for them finished when they were knocked out of the cups. Spurs have a Uefa Cup spot to fight for and they are a very good team at home. The shaky defence cost them the season, but Arsenal are not that solid too lately. The game will probably end with a draw, but if anyone is to win it that is Spurs. I'm laying Arsenal here.