England > Premiership > 23-25 Sep

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by Bright Omega

If I can read well, this is the analysis of about everyone who posted:

'Villa are strong under O'Neil, and so are Pompey. They will win their match for sure. Feeling confident... Same for Liverpool, ManU and Chelsea. Of course they'll win their match.'

Reasoning: Pompey are 1st, ManU 2nd, Chelsea 3rd and Villa 5th.

WOW. How absolutely brilliant.

I can't believe these posts. Does everyone believe there's logic in punting? Give me a break.

Personally I can see Charlton win, just like Fulham, Watford, Blackburn, Reading and Bolton. There's absolutely NO value in the others.

Any reason behind your tips on Charlton, Fulham, Watford, Blackburn, Reading and Bolton?

[Bright Omega]

Secondsight, how do you know that Villa have appr. 60% chance of winning? That's just a personal hinch, is it not?

That's why I wanted to warn you guys, not to be too optimistic about the teams that fought against relegation last year. A lot can change very quickly, so don't put your mother on it...

There's always teams who will get surprise results, play well one week and play like crap the other one. Think of Middlesbrough, Blackburn, Charlton, Wigan.

[Bright Omega]

Djordje, I named those teams because I smelled an air of 'easy money' in the earlier posts. And there's no such thing.

You can talk hours about injuries, form and staff, but in the end, everyone follows his gut feeling, based on a certain knowledge and experience.

My experience says that we could be in for some surprises this weekend. If you look at the odds, it seems like a good option (to me) :-)

There's also the mental aspect, with f.eg. Portsmouth. They're 1st now...
It's always easier to chase a leader than to remain on top. That's why I think Portsmouth won't win.

[Psychic]

I don't think that Pomepy are feeling any particular kind of pressure now. Harry will see to that. They know that the pole position is only theirs for a limited time and Bolton haven't exactly been pulling up trees this season. For me it looks very much like a 1-0 home win.

[SecondSight]

BO - I tend to go against most punters rather than with them as I don't usually bet on in form teams, because the value is usually with the out of form team. I have not said Villa will win, there is approx 40% chance they will not.

60% is not just a personal hunch. I don't use mathematical formulas because there are too many variable some of which are not known such as a refereeing decision which turns a game. However 47% of games long term are homes in England which is a fact. Paul Ross stats show teams performances based on shots, corners etc in previous games, plus spread firms give an indication of long term points of teams. From these it can be seen that Villa have performed better than Charlton and are expected to for the rest of the season which gives them a better than average chance of winning this game. I don't say I am accurate, but I don't think I am inaccurate hence I am up quite a bit this seaon and the last 2 seasons. If I could get 5/1 on Charlton I woud be interested in them too as that would be value (odds above true outcome).

Last week I did put Peterboro as a star long shot at 7.40 against everyone bar one (ff?) that went for Swindon. Peterboro won.

[Bright Omega]

SS -- I understand. And I feel you understand what I'm trying to say as well... :-)
What website do you get these stats from??

[Jonne]

Originally Posted by Bright Omega

If I can read well, this is the analysis of about everyone who posted:

'Villa are strong under O'Neil, and so are Pompey. They will win their match for sure. Feeling confident... Same for Liverpool, ManU and Chelsea. Of course they'll win their match.'

Reasoning: Pompey are 1st, ManU 2nd, Chelsea 3rd and Villa 5th.

WOW. How absolutely brilliant.

I can't believe these posts. Does everyone believe there's logic in punting? Give me a break.

Personally I can see Charlton win, just like Fulham, Watford, Blackburn, Reading and Bolton. There's absolutely NO value in the others.

Sorry if I'm offended, but what you're posting is absolutely bullshit. You do not have a patent on value, value is a personal thing. If you believe there's value in it, sure go for it, the only way we can check, is if you have profit in a year or so.
Still you can't say what's value and what ain't value, you can say what you THINK is value.
Personally I didn't say anything about easy money or anything, I just think the bookies mis-prices Portsmouth, and that IS what value is all about. You being better at seeing what the prices should be (or what the chances are of a homewin, draw and awaywin.)
Now put some reasoning behind your bets, or do you want us to follow them blindly just because you "can see" them win?

[SecondSight]

The 47% stat comes from Geoff Harvey book on Successful Betting. That guy should give me commision!

Racing Post puts up this season's stats but its too small a sample to use for this season.

Paul Ross stats are under a thread called Performance Stats further down this webpage.

Value can come from following the crowd on here or not following them. Some spend put in little thought while some are quite shrewd and some in between. The little thoughters easily get dragged into form picks and/or big names. Their analysis is normally very brief. I tend to take more note of the longer posts and posts from people who know their teams. Although I try to read all.

Occasionally little gems appear, like a torquay fan saying a player of there's is value on goalscoring bets, beacuse he has had alot of nearer missses or is playing in a new position. The bookies do not know about this info.

[AK1979]

Blimey - its a bit of a feisty thread this week isnt it!

I like over 2.5 goals in the Reading v Man Utd game tomorrow. 5/6 available with Stan James.

Prior to the season starting, Steve Coppell announced he wasnt going to abandon his attacking tactics just because Reading were in a higher league. He evidently has stuck to his word and whilst they look shaky at the back, Reading look potent up front - Doyle, Lita, Convey, Sidwell, Harper and Kyeon are as good a midfield/attacking sextet as you find in the league, bar the top 6. I can see them scoring tomorrow.

I will be very suprised if they keep Man Utd at bay and goals look very much on the agenda

[przeszczepan]

Here are my fair odds estimations for over/under 2.5 goals:

Arsenal Sheff Utd 1.79 2.27
Aston Villa Charlton 2.26 1.79
Fulham Chelsea 2.27 1.79
Liverpool Tottenham 2.29 1.78
Man City West Ham 2.14 1.88
Middlesbro' Blackburn 2.13 1.89
Reading Man Utd 1.66 2.51
Wigan Athletic Watford 2.26 1.79
Newcastle Everton 2.13 1.89
Portsmouth Bolton 2.52 1.66

The point of posting these is to provide you with a point of reference for a further analysis of the total number of goals market. Knowing what odds the statistical analysis of past results suggests, you could modify the estimations given some additional data (injuries, weather, motivation, etc.) to come up with more accurate prices to compare with the bookmakers offer.

To see if what I am comming up here is worth your time vist the thread where the odds are verified.

[Bright Omega]

Jonne, don't take it too personal, man. You say that bookies mis-price Pompey, I just got the impression it's the other way around. After Argentinas impressive win against S&M everyone thought they would beat Holland, easy. And you know it didn't happen.

What you say about value is true: it's totally personal. I probably got a bit too edgy, so sorry about that. Let's see what happens tomorrow, and good luck to you.

Thanks for the info SecondSight. Appreciate.

[tyrone]

Aston Villa vs. Charlton
Villa’s revival continued apace this week, with Randy Lerner taking full control of the club with over 89% of the shares and O’Neil’s men claimed another victory in midweek as they won a tough Carling Cup tie away at Scunthorpe. Villa Park has been bouncing since O’Neil and Lerner came the fore, something that couldn’t be said very often when O’Leary and Ellis were in control and the fans were being turned away in their thousands. Villa have two home victories this season, over Newcastle and Reading, as well as three creditable away draws.
Charlton have started poorly under Iain Dowie and find themselves languishing in 18^th place in the Premiership and they struggled past League Two Carlisle 1-0 at The Valley on Tuesday night. A lot rests on Darren Bent’s shoulders this season, he has scored four of Charlton’s five goals so far and he will once again be pivotal to the team’s success at Villa Park. With Villa still on a high they should have too much for a Charlton side without an away win in eleven months.
Tip: 10pts Aston Villa @ 1.76 (ExtraBet)
Newcastle vs. Everton
Newcastle continue to struggle under Roeder, with a side that is desperately short of goals and confidence. They were dreadful at Anfield on Wednesday and, despite success at Upton Park last weekend, they were beaten at home by Fulham before that and were also fortunate to beat Wigan at St James Park on the opening day. The loss of Celetstine Babayaro is offset by the possible return of Steven Taylor and Titus Bramble, while Shola Ameobi faces a late fitness test.
Everton have continued this season as they finished the last, looking in fine form and securing regular victories. They weren’t at their best on Tuesday night beating Peterborough, but recent victories over Liverpool (3-0) and Tottenham (2-0) and last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Wigan have moved the Toffees to fourth in the Premiership. Everton will be sweating on the fitness of Joseph Yobo and David Weir, with Alan Stubbs definitely out injured. They are a side full of confidence though and can make Newcastle pay if they put in another poor performance.
Tip: 7pts Everton (0) @ 2.44 (Betfair)

[Zozo the Duke]

Arsenal v Sheffield United

Pick: Arsenal (-1.5)
Odds: 1.76 @ PointBet
Stake: 5/10

Arsenal managed to take only one win at their new stadium and that win was against Dinamo Zagreb in CL qualifications and Arsenal struggled on that match too. It really strange thing why Arsenal is still without win at home, not because of their opponents, because of their huge domination on that matches. Arsenal was missing a lot in their home matches and I think that it is about time someone to be trashed at Emirates Stadium. Better opponent than Sheffield United cannot have. They are one of the weakest teams and main candidate for going down.

Arsenal will welcome back their first choice attackers, van Persie and Henry. That will be huge boost for the team that took all three points at Old Trafford last weekend. Arsenal players are full of confidence and they want to break the curse at Emirates Stadium. I believe in easy Arsenal’s win. They are by far better team, Sheffield will try to defend and I think that they won’t hold too much without conceding. They are still without win this season and they have big list of unavailable players: Kenny, Tonge, Montgomery, Webber, Kabba and Shipperley

I think that Arsenal will win this match in the first half and then trash Sheffield with more that 2 goals difference. They will try to finish this match earlier in order to keep their strengths for Champions League in the midweek. They are desperate for three points because if they want to fight for the title they must take 3 points from this kind of matches. For me, Arsenal HT/FT and Arsenal to win by more than one goal.





Aston Villa v Charlton Athletic

Pick: Aston Villa
Odds: 1.78 @ BetFair
Stake: 3/10


Aston Villa is playing absolutely brilliant under O’Neill and I really like to watch them. O’Neill add excitement in their game and from mediocre team he made them team who will be respected from all teams and managers.

Charlton is not doing well this season. Their start is not good enough and I think that they will have relegation troubles this season. They only took three points from Bolton, who isn’t playin at their best this season too. It seems that Dowie cannot take the best from his players. Charlton is playing in poor form and almost every player is playing below his abilities. Both Bents, Hasselbaink, and I can give good grade only on El Karkouri and Young who is good as always.

Aston Villa is playing confidently and they are really good side. O’Neill knows what he is doing and he made Aston Villa team for European places. Aston Villa drew last 2 Premier league matches, both away, against West Ham 1:1 and against Watford 0:0 in matches that should have won easily. They missed great number of goal opportunities and I think that the luck cannot be against them always and it is time to be on their side. With a bit of luck and Sorensen on the goal (who absolutely brilliant lately) brave team like Villa will beat Chartlon easily. Laursen is fit again for Villa and that will give more stability in the defensive line. I really do not believe that Charlton can take anything from this match.



Fulham v Chelsea

Pick: Chelsea (-1) AH
Odds:1.80 @ Stan James
Stake: 9/10

Chelsea survived Liverpool in the last round and managed to get away with 1:0 win which was completely undeserved, in my opinion. Liverpool was much better opponent and thanks to poor finishing, Chelsea took the three points. I believe that Mourinho is aware of the fact that Chelsea is not playing at their best and he will try to get his team on the right tracks again.

Fulham took 4 points from their last 2 away matches, both of them against very strong rivals. They beat Newcsatle away and recovered 1:0 and thanks to Newcastle’s defense scored two late goals and took the three points away from St. James Park. Fulham didn’t played well on that match, but the gifts from the defenders could not be missed. Then came Tottenham 0:0 away which is also a good result knowing that Tottenham has very strong team, but despite that, they are playing way below their abilities.

Chelsea lost last year away at Fulham and that was first loss in last 40 years for Chelsea at Craven Cottage. I believe that now Chelsea will be dominant team and Fulham have to be satisfied with small loss, which I think won’t happen.

Another point backing my pick is that Fulham is having huge number of injured players, among them their best player Boa Morte, Jimmy Bullard, Ahmad Elrich, Simon Elliott, Mark Pembridge and Philippe Christanval. Also Bocanegra, McBride and Bouba Diop are doubtful.

Chelsea will be without Joe Cole who renewed his injury and Ballack who is suspended. But Lamprad will have more freedom in the midfield now and he is Fulham’s nightmare. He scored 4 goals in last 5 meetings between these two clubs.

I believe that Chelsea is too much for this injury-hit team of Fulham.

[kevshat]

4pts Liverpool -0.75AH vs Tottenham 1.87 Sporting Odds

Liverpool have started well at home this season and beat Newcastle 2-0 in midweek at Anfield. Tottenham haven't started the season too well and will be missing Berbatov and Lennon for this match. Rafa Benitez is going to make changes for this match so his side should be fresh and hopefully on the same wavelength and if they are I fully expect Liverpool to win this match.

4pts Aston Villa -0.75AH vs Charlton 2.07 Pointbet

Villa have made a very impressive start to the season while Charlton have made an average start. Confidence at Villa Park is high at the minute and it's probably the last place an injury ravaged Charlton side want to visit. With all of Charlton's injuries I fully expect Villa to win the game.

[Djordje]

I'll let alone obvious winners and will go for ManCity

They hardly convinced anyone so far, but I really dont see them going worse after cup defeat few days ago, and I think with manager they have they can respond with good result tomorrow.

45-30-25 are my percentages for this match

ManCity(-1/4) @2.10, 8/10

[QuantumParadox]

hello forum!

Arsenal,Chelsea,Hibernian from british coupon,thats all,manu to win against Reading? i cant beleive it,sounds very difficult,no chance to place such an away win

GL FORUM!

[Janger]

ZOZO THE DUKE ,I'm with Chealse too,Lampard will show today who is a daddy ,also how you said they lost last season,and I see huge motive to beat Fulham.

[gersfandownunder]

wigan v watford.

heard wigan players talking about home form on BBC World and i have to agree. second game of the season at home coming up and i think Jewell will be very confident of winning. style has changed a bit from last season because of transfers but the manager will expect 3 points.

[Jonne]

Originally Posted by Bright Omega

Jonne, don't take it too personal, man. You say that bookies mis-price Pompey, I just got the impression it's the other way around. After Argentinas impressive win against S&M everyone thought they would beat Holland, easy. And you know it didn't happen.

What you say about value is true: it's totally personal. I probably got a bit too edgy, so sorry about that. Let's see what happens tomorrow, and good luck to you.

Thanks for the info SecondSight. Appreciate.

It's all fine, and good luck to you, too

[avok]

From http://www.avfc.premiumtv.co.uk

Ridge Relishes Run
Defender looking for Villa to extend the unbeaten run with three points against Charlton this afternoon.

Liam Ridgewell is looking for Villa to extend the unbeaten run with three points against struggling Charlton this afternoon.
And, after Villa's struggles last season, the young defender is enjoying life at the other end of the table.
That said, Ridgewell knows there is no room for complacency as Martin O'Neill's men bid for a third straight home win.
The 22-year-old told www.avfc.co.uk: "We've not done too well over the last couple of seasons and it feels great to be on a long unbeaten run - that's what every team wants.
"But, having drawn a couple away from home, we need to win our Villa Park games. We've won the first two and it would be great if we could get another win today.
"We don't look like conceding too many and that's always a good foundation for the rest of the team. It's an obvious thing to say, but keep a clean-sheet and the forwards only need to score one.
"At the back, we want clean-sheets just as much as the strikers want goals. We've kept two clean-sheets and only conceded three in the league, so that's not a bad start."
Ridgewell, ever-present so far this term, added: "Everyone can see there's a massive difference at Villa this season and we're looking to do even better as the season goes on.
"Just because we've started well, we have to keep working hard to make sure it doesn't all go wrong. That's been the great thing; everyone has worked hard for results - from the strikers right back to Thomas Sorensen.
"Charlton have been struggling away from home, but that could act as an incentive for them. So we have to concentrate on our own game and work on our own strengths.
"They're never easy opponents and we won't take anything for granted. But if we continue to work hard in games, we'll get the results we deserve."