England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) - The Punters Lounge

Carl · 31-12-2006, 14:53

Monday 1 January 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Liverpool v Bolton (12:45 GMT)	1.69	4.00	6.50	100%
Fulham v Watford (15:00 GMT)	1.79	3.75	5.70	101%
Man City v Everton (15:00 GMT)	2.52	3.40	3.20	101%
Middlesbrough v Sheffield Utd (15:00 GMT)	1.91	3.70	4.80	101%
Portsmouth v Tottenham (15:00 GMT)	2.54	3.40	3.15	101%
Reading v West Ham (15:00 GMT)	2.15	3.50	3.90	101%
Wigan v Blackburn (15:00 GMT)	2.56	3.40	3.25	100%
Newcastle v Man Utd (17:15 GMT)	7.00	4.20	1.61	100%
Tuesday 2 January 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Arsenal v Charlton (19:45 GMT)	1.30	6.50	17.00	99%
Aston Villa v Chelsea (20:00 GMT)	7.00	3.95	1.63	101%

Bedlam · 31-12-2006, 15:15

Better than evens about a Reading side that drew at Stamford Bridge & run Man U close in their last 2 games at home to a West Ham team that lost their last 2 games on their own ground to Pompey & City looks value to me.I reckon they'll be odds-on by kick off.

Pompey, strong at home @ 2.5 against Spurs,poor away also appeals.

christo85efc · 31-12-2006, 15:56

Bolton priced too high away at Liverpool IMO, should be about 3/1 tops. Will have a nibble on the AH (0) with them.

Also like Wigan and Reading to win at home.

One other is my team Everton @ 3.20 away to City. City have improved of late marginally yeah and picked up to 1-0 wins, but don't forgot everton's run over christmas, 2 win and a draw, and beating newcastle 3-0 will have done wonders for confidence of the team and especially Anichebe who has been picked over Beattie and will continue to impress.

James20zs · 31-12-2006, 17:15

Does anyone see value in Liverpool at 1.7 @ Betfair

A very strong home record for Liverpool W8 D2 L0
Only conceding 3 goals I think so far at home.
Craig Bellamy a slight doubt, but with class from Alonso and Gerrard along with others chipping in surely Liverpool look a hefty price.
Someone will obviously shoot me down and remind me of Bolton's form of late, but they always seem to start seasons well and then blow things up after the christmas period.

Also like the price on Manchester United around 1.6 against Newcastle who only have 1 fit centre half apparently Nicky Butt will have to play centre half again for them. Although Newcastle could spring a surprise at home with the likes of Martins and Dyer in attack, but I don't simply think they can keep the ball out at the other end.

Does betting on New Years Day affect who you bet on? I know in this day and age players shouldn't go out New Years Eve drinking, but I can imagine it does happen. Are you better looking at the away teams as obviously they will be away and more than likely staying in a hotel with management looking over them where as teams playing at home will stay at home tonight and could be out with friends drinking and not me fully prepared for tomorrows game. Just a thought I know it's not likely in this day an age with top flight clubs, but can imagine it happening with the lower football league clubs? Sorry if it seems like I have gone off topic

MrKelly · 31-12-2006, 17:17

Hello to all of you guys!
I’m very happy I found a place to share thoughts and picks with people who have similar beliefs about the betting game, with me.
I’m a “number lover” who trying to build a model that can predicts (in the most of the cases) the football game result. I’m sure that all of you can understand the difficulty degree of this. But after all I think it’s a nice trip and maybe it’s worth the effort.
Unfortunately I didn’t make it to register yesterday and give to the forum my system’s last successive picks (Everton Home Win, Liverpool Away Win & Man city Away win).
So for the 1^st of 2007 I have already taken the picks above:

HOME TEAM	AWAY TEAM	1X2 POINT	p	book odd	Overlay
Portsmouth	Tottenham	1	0,59	2,25	0,14
Wigan Athletic	Blackburn	2	0,59	3	0,25
Reading	West Ham United	1	0,56	2,05	0,07

The odds is from gamebookers.com

As you can see I don’t buy odds below my personal limit of 1.8.
So I avoid the crashes of the big favorites (like the Chelsea’s 2-2 yesterday!!!).
You must always remember that the sports betting game is (in most of the cases) a zero sum game!!!

Best wishes to all of you for the New Year.
Let the 2007 be a healthy, peaceful and profitable New Year!!

Carl · 31-12-2006, 17:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by christo85efc

Bolton priced too high away at Liverpool IMO, should be about 3/1 tops. Will have a nibble on the AH (0) with them.

I was think that also, Liverpool are in good form at the mo, but so are Bolton and it might just be worth laying Liverpool at that price.

Personally tho I fancy a few draws tomorrow.
Teams only just played yesterday and its not just the fitness but teams will not have had anytime to prepare for the opponents IE set pieces etc.

Small stakes for me tomorrow

western skies · 31-12-2006, 17:40

Portsmouth v Tottenham

Portsmouth 1 defeat at home this season (against Bolton at the tail-end of September); Tottenham 1 victory away all season (Man City a few weeks back). Just impossible for me to ignore the value on Pompey at these odds.

Spurs are on my list of teams that I don't "trust" at the moment - far too inconsistent and the huge disparity between home & away form always points to a side that lack the stomach to win the big games. Mido has been a huge disappointment since his return and how he ever gets the nod ahead of Berbatov & Defoe I just cannot understand, whilst there's no doubt the departure of Carrick has left a bigger hole in midfield than many thought at the time.

Pompey are solid and possess a real goal-threat - 4th highest scorers in the Prem this year after Man U, Chelsea & Arsenal - and I can't see Spurs keeping a clean sheet here. Given their paltry return of 6 goals from 10 away games, I can't see them scoring many either. Campbell will be well up for the game given his relationship with the Spurs fans, and James has probably been the most impressive keeper in the Prem so far this season.

I'll take a piece of the 2.48 still available at BetFair for the Portsmouth win - bet strength 6/10

Liverpool v Bolton

Bolton are the epitome of everything Spurs aren't away from home and their record of 5-2-3 has to be respected. Add to that 5 straight wins on the bounce and I cannot understand the price available on this match.

The Scousers are unbeaten at home, but they are yet to play any of the Premiership heavyweights at Anfield and they haven't really convinced me so far. Benitez's thinking still seems muddled and he really hasn't got to grips with the Premiership during his time with the club. Until he does, Liverpool will remain a great cup side but a disappointment in the League.

The price on Bolton is attractive, but although I can see them ruffling some feathers, I think the real value here lies in opposing the home side, so I will lay Liverpool (LAY) @ 1.7 on BetFair - bet strength 4/10

Of the other games, I quite like the odds on Reading to overturn the big time charlies of West Ham, but no win in six for the home team puts me off. I've also sworn off backing Chelsea until JT is back in defence or until the prices start becoming more realistic, but I'll stick my neck on the line & say I can't honestly see past a Chelsea win away at Villa - may have a fun bet before heading down the pub to watch, but I won't be tipping this one though!

GL everyone & Happy New Year

SaberBlade83 · 31-12-2006, 17:42

Liverpool-Bolton

Two teams in really good form. Liverpool are in 4th place in the league, 2 points behind Bolton. Liverpool at home have a 8-2-0 record, only conceding 3 goals! Bolton have 5-2-3 away from home, and have an average of 1 goal per game. Liverpool grabed a great win at Tottenham 0-1 just yesterday! Bolton have won their last 5 games. Previous games between these two at Anfield suggest it will be a tight affair. Liverpool winning 4 drawing 1 in the last 5 games.

Liverpool have doubts over Bellamy, but have an otherwise fit squad. Zenden, Sissoko and Kewell are long-term. They are however expected to change some in the starting lineup from the one that won at Tottenham. Bolton have no fresh injuries and may start with the same team that beat Pompey 3-2.

Difficult game to predict. There are many games played during this period, and this is only 48 hours after their previous games. As mentioned, history show that this will be tight and likey with few goals as both teams defend well. Liverpool is really hard to beat at Anfield, and besides the slip up at Blackburn, they are in superb form!

Score prediction: 1-0

Pick 1: Liverpool - 1,65 @ Expekt (4/10)
Pick 2: under 2,5 goals - 1,70 @ Bet365 (8/10)

31-12-2006, 15:15	#2 (permalink)
Bedlam Enigmatic Punter Join Date: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 905 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) Better than evens about a Reading side that drew at Stamford Bridge & run Man U close in their last 2 games at home to a West Ham team that lost their last 2 games on their own ground to Pompey & City looks value to me.I reckon they'll be odds-on by kick off. Pompey, strong at home @ 2.5 against Spurs,poor away also appeals. Last edited by Bedlam; 31-12-2006 at 15:16.

31-12-2006, 15:56	#3 (permalink)
christo85efc Football Fanatic Join Date: 22 Feb 2005 Age: 23 Posts: 2,061 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) Bolton priced too high away at Liverpool IMO, should be about 3/1 tops. Will have a nibble on the AH (0) with them. Also like Wigan and Reading to win at home. One other is my team Everton @ 3.20 away to City. City have improved of late marginally yeah and picked up to 1-0 wins, but don't forgot everton's run over christmas, 2 win and a draw, and beating newcastle 3-0 will have done wonders for confidence of the team and especially Anichebe who has been picked over Beattie and will continue to impress. __________________ Everton FC - Pride of Merseyside!!

31-12-2006, 17:15	#4 (permalink)
James20zs Newbie Punter Join Date: 17 Feb 2005 Posts: 49	Re: England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) Does anyone see value in Liverpool at 1.7 @ Betfair A very strong home record for Liverpool W8 D2 L0 Only conceding 3 goals I think so far at home. Craig Bellamy a slight doubt, but with class from Alonso and Gerrard along with others chipping in surely Liverpool look a hefty price. Someone will obviously shoot me down and remind me of Bolton's form of late, but they always seem to start seasons well and then blow things up after the christmas period. Also like the price on Manchester United around 1.6 against Newcastle who only have 1 fit centre half apparently Nicky Butt will have to play centre half again for them. Although Newcastle could spring a surprise at home with the likes of Martins and Dyer in attack, but I don't simply think they can keep the ball out at the other end. Does betting on New Years Day affect who you bet on? I know in this day and age players shouldn't go out New Years Eve drinking, but I can imagine it does happen. Are you better looking at the away teams as obviously they will be away and more than likely staying in a hotel with management looking over them where as teams playing at home will stay at home tonight and could be out with friends drinking and not me fully prepared for tomorrows game. Just a thought I know it's not likely in this day an age with top flight clubs, but can imagine it happening with the lower football league clubs? Sorry if it seems like I have gone off topic

31-12-2006, 17:40	#7 (permalink)
western skies Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 13 Sep 2006 Location: Bristol Age: 36 Posts: 590	Re: England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) Portsmouth v Tottenham Portsmouth 1 defeat at home this season (against Bolton at the tail-end of September); Tottenham 1 victory away all season (Man City a few weeks back). Just impossible for me to ignore the value on Pompey at these odds. Spurs are on my list of teams that I don't "trust" at the moment - far too inconsistent and the huge disparity between home & away form always points to a side that lack the stomach to win the big games. Mido has been a huge disappointment since his return and how he ever gets the nod ahead of Berbatov & Defoe I just cannot understand, whilst there's no doubt the departure of Carrick has left a bigger hole in midfield than many thought at the time. Pompey are solid and possess a real goal-threat - 4th highest scorers in the Prem this year after Man U, Chelsea & Arsenal - and I can't see Spurs keeping a clean sheet here. Given their paltry return of 6 goals from 10 away games, I can't see them scoring many either. Campbell will be well up for the game given his relationship with the Spurs fans, and James has probably been the most impressive keeper in the Prem so far this season. I'll take a piece of the 2.48 still available at BetFair for the Portsmouth win - bet strength 6/10 Liverpool v Bolton Bolton are the epitome of everything Spurs aren't away from home and their record of 5-2-3 has to be respected. Add to that 5 straight wins on the bounce and I cannot understand the price available on this match. The Scousers are unbeaten at home, but they are yet to play any of the Premiership heavyweights at Anfield and they haven't really convinced me so far. Benitez's thinking still seems muddled and he really hasn't got to grips with the Premiership during his time with the club. Until he does, Liverpool will remain a great cup side but a disappointment in the League. The price on Bolton is attractive, but although I can see them ruffling some feathers, I think the real value here lies in opposing the home side, so I will lay Liverpool (LAY) @ 1.7 on BetFair - bet strength 4/10 Of the other games, I quite like the odds on Reading to overturn the big time charlies of West Ham, but no win in six for the home team puts me off. I've also sworn off backing Chelsea until JT is back in defence or until the prices start becoming more realistic, but I'll stick my neck on the line & say I can't honestly see past a Chelsea win away at Villa - may have a fun bet before heading down the pub to watch, but I won't be tipping this one though! GL everyone & Happy New Year

31-12-2006, 17:42	#8 (permalink)
SaberBlade83 Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 30 Sep 2006 Age: 25 Posts: 614	Re: England - Premiership (1st/2nd Jan) Liverpool-Bolton Two teams in really good form. Liverpool are in 4th place in the league, 2 points behind Bolton. Liverpool at home have a 8-2-0 record, only conceding 3 goals! Bolton have 5-2-3 away from home, and have an average of 1 goal per game. Liverpool grabed a great win at Tottenham 0-1 just yesterday! Bolton have won their last 5 games. Previous games between these two at Anfield suggest it will be a tight affair. Liverpool winning 4 drawing 1 in the last 5 games. Liverpool have doubts over Bellamy, but have an otherwise fit squad. Zenden, Sissoko and Kewell are long-term. They are however expected to change some in the starting lineup from the one that won at Tottenham. Bolton have no fresh injuries and may start with the same team that beat Pompey 3-2. Difficult game to predict. There are many games played during this period, and this is only 48 hours after their previous games. As mentioned, history show that this will be tight and likey with few goals as both teams defend well. Liverpool is really hard to beat at Anfield, and besides the slip up at Blackburn, they are in superb form! Score prediction: 1-0 Pick 1: Liverpool - 1,65 @ Expekt (4/10) Pick 2: under 2,5 goals - 1,70 @ Bet365 (8/10)

31-12-2006, 17:57	#9 (permalink)
SaberBlade83 Shrewdie Punter