England: Premier May 11

[Bedlam]

I think the fair play league may well offer an interesting betting opportunity on Middlesborough. With City now in pole position to take a uefa cup place, even if there is no official instructions to the City players, surely they will have agreed amoungst themseles not to risk any yellow cards tomorrow. My only reservation is that it looks like it could be Sven's last game, so the players may be intent on winning this match for him. But City have been poor recently anyway, so I'm taking Boro @ 2.1

[SecondSight]

Bedlam

If you fancy the Boro I would advise taking them on the ht/ft at 13/5. Their 6 home wins have all been ht/ft. Thats 1 in 3 (2/1).

[SB162002]

Originally Posted by Djlion

How is the West Ham v Villa game meaningless to both teams when Villa can still qualify for the Uefa Cup by finishing 5th?

Oops! was getting mixed up with Borro and City for the meaningless match. Was between the two games for my third draw

[Carl]

Derby v Reading

Derby last 6 Home: LDLDLL

Reading last 6 Away: LWLLLD

H2H's 7 Oct 07 Premiership Reading 1 - 0 Derby County 1 Apr 06 Championship League Reading 5 - 0 Derby County 31 Dec 05 Championship League Derby County 2 - 2 Reading 3 Jan 05 Championship League Reading 0 - 1 Derby County 11 Sep 04 Championship League Derby County 2 - 1 Reading 31 Jan 04 Championship League Reading 3 - 1 Derby County 23 Aug 03 Championship League Derby County 2 - 3 Reading 28 Dec 02 Championship League Reading 2 - 1 Derby County 10 Aug 02 Championship League Derby County 3 - 0 Reading

Its official Derby are the worst team to grace the prem but their supporters must deserve huge amount of credit. Reading haven't scored in 6 games so Derby fans could 'celebrate' with a point before they go down.

0-0 Draw. Under 1.5 goals @ 10/3 VCBet

[Carl]

Middlesbrough v Man City

Boro last 6 Home: WLWDLW

City last 6 Away: WLDLWL

H2H's 7 Oct 07 Premiership Manchester City 3 - 1 Middlesbrough 17 Mar 07 Premiership Middlesbrough 0 - 2 Manchester City 30 Oct 06 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 0 Middlesbrough 2 Apr 06 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 1 Middlesbrough 31 Dec 05 Premiership Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Manchester City 15 May 05 Premiership Manchester City 1 - 1 Middlesbrough 6 Dec 04 Premiership Middlesbrough 3 - 2 Manchester City 8 May 04 Premiership Middlesbrough 2 - 1 Manchester City 30 Nov 03 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 1 Middlesbrough 12 Apr 03 Premiership Manchester City 0 - 0 Middlesbrough 23 Nov 02 Premiership Middlesbrough 3 - 1 Manchester City

With safety assured Gareth Southgates men can feel the pressure is off, they did well to beat a Pompey side last week in the style that they did, having said that Pompey have had one eye on wembley for a while now. Inconsistent City will want to send Sven off with a win but will struggle.

Boro win @ even money

[Carl]

West Ham v Aston Villa

West Ham last 6 Home: DLWLWD

Villa last 6 Away: WDLLWD

H2H's 6 Oct 07 Premiership Aston Villa 1 - 0 West Ham United 3 Feb 07 Premiership Aston Villa 1 - 0 West Ham United 10 Sep 06 Premiership West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa 14 Jan 06 Premiership Aston Villa 1 - 2 West Ham United 12 Sep 05 Premiership West Ham United 4 - 0 Aston Villa 12 Apr 03 Premiership West Ham United 2 - 2 Aston Villa 23 Nov 02 Premiership Aston Villa 4 - 1 West Ham United 2 Mar 02 Premiership Aston Villa 2 - 1 West Ham United 5 Dec 01 Premiership West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa 7 Apr 01 Premiership Aston Villa 2 - 2 West Ham United 9 Dec 00 Premiership West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa 15 Jan 00 Premiership West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa

West Ham were very poor in this game back in October last year but Villa have not won at West Ham since 1996 and 6 of West Hams home games with Villa have been a draw 4 of them being 1-1. Villa need to win this to grab the UEFA spot but I fear Blackburn could over take them for the final position.

DRAW @ 13/5 with VCBet

[Carl]

Wigan v Man Utd
Despite winning three Premier League title as a Manchester United player, Steve Bruce will be no less determined to get a result at the JJB Stadium on Sunday as his Wigan side look to spoil the Red Devils’ party. Alex Ferguson’s team talk should be straight-forward enough, win the game and United are Champions. However, should they slip up, then Chelsea are poised to snatch the title from under their noses. Another Man United legend, Mark Hughes, put a spanner in the works as Blackburn held the league leaders to a draw in mid-April, so despite Wigan having nothing tangible to play for, this game is no gimme.
The ‘Latics are unbeaten in five games including a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, and victory last weekend at Villa Park, traditionally two very difficult venues to get a result. Steve Bruce has had a dramatic impact since taking over in November, ensuring the club’s survival, by building a tight defensive unit. Wigan have conceded just once in their last eight home games, so it will take something special from the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo to unlock their defence. Ronaldo double against West Ham last weekend at Old Trafford settled nerves and took his toll for the season to 40; the PFA Player of the year could be the difference and

Wigan last 6 Home: WDWWDD

Utd last 6 Away: WWWDDL

H2H's 6 Oct 07 Premiership Manchester United 4 - 0 Wigan Athletic 26 Dec 06 Premiership Manchester United 3 - 1 Wigan Athletic 14 Oct 06 Premiership Wigan Athletic 1 - 3 Manchester United 6 Mar 06 Premiership Wigan Athletic 1 - 2 Manchester United 26 Feb 06 League Cup Manchester United 4 - 0 Wigan Athletic 14 Dec 05 Premiership Manchester United 4 - 0 Wigan Athletic

Is this the day that Utd lift the title? Wigan have done well to avoid the drop but I just think Utd will want to get an early 2 goals and shut shop and if Im honest I dont think Ste Bruce would try to alter his tatics to get a draw with 20 mins to go. Utd dominated West Ham last week even when they went down to 10 men.

Utd to win 2-0

[Ronnie]

Fancy Blackburn to beat a Birmingham side that they have already beaten twice this season already, Birmingham are poor at home winning only 5 games.

Blackburn will be up for this and with Birmingham having to win, the gaps and chances will be plentiful for a good counter attacking Blackburn team.

Blackburn 11/4 @ Corals

Also going to back a striker who's benefitted from having an injury free season and is in good goal scoring form.

Santa Cruz anytime scorer 9/4 @ Corals

[DJ]

Originally Posted by Carl

West Ham v Aston Villa



West Ham were very poor in this game back in October last year but Villa have not won at West Ham since 1996 and 6 of West Hams home games with Villa have been a draw 4 of them being 1-1. Villa need to win this to grab the UEFA spot but I fear Blackburn could over take them for the final position.

DRAW @ 13/5 with VCBet

As a Blackburn fan you fear that you will overtake Villa... yeah, I bet you're really scared!

I think that's a realistic shout though for a draw, especially as I feel there will be quite a high number of draws played out tomorrow. I am half tempted to do some draws in 3-folds or something.

[DJ]

I'm tempted by a 'specials' bet that WillHill are offering on which Premiership match sees most goals tomorrow. Middlesbrough v Manchester City is the outsider at odds of 14/1 with 1/5 the odds for a place 1,2 or 3. Seeing as to be in the top 3 would give odds of just under 3/1 I think there is likely value there. Middlesbrough are due to score 3 goals in a match this season as they have failed to do this up until now. Neither team have anything to play for and so the game may well be an open game with chances at either side. I can envisage that many of the games featuring teams with something to play for will be tight, cagey affairs. So with odds of just under 3/1 (if I've calculated the price right) for there to be most goals in this game, I think it's worth a nibble.

[Blackstock]

Does Blackburn still have a chance to play in UEAF cup qualifications, as well as Everton ?? I know that the Toffees need only 1 point to stay on safe 5th place, but I'm not sure about the team which reaches 6th place in EPL.

Don't you think that Blackburn NOT TO LOSE (double chance) with 1.9 is far too big???

[SecondSight]

Thanks DJ for the info on Boro/MC, I agree there will be a few goals scored in it.

MC are resting their first choice keeper and playing their reserve. I can't see City wanting to pick up any bookings etc. Boro have scored 4 goals in their last 2 games, first time this season I think.

I have taken 3pts@15.0.

[Aarun]

For some reason something keeps doubting me about the Chelsea game, Bolton have a poor squad and Chelsea have quality and should prevail around 2-0, but still I have doubts. Also I just had a dream in my sleep, my last 2 dreams about football results came 100% correct. Wigan/Man U was a 3-3 result and Chelsea/Bolton was a 2-2 result, with Man U still winning the league.

However I hope Man U/Chelsea both win, both will have the motivation, quality and more to play for and end a season on the high whether or not they will win the league or not they will want to win nobody likes losing.

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Everton v Newcastle
Selection	under 2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.04 (Back)
Reasoning	I saw Everton at the Emirates last week and whilst they came for a draw, there wasnt much offensive threat at all. No Cahill or Arteta today, Newcastle have also lost Viduka to injury. Evertons defensive qualities are well known and to their credit, Newcastle have tightened up in recent weeks too. I dont think there will be much in this and I was surprised to get better than evens on under 2.5 goals

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Everton v Newcastle
Selection	under 2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.04 (Back)
Reasoning	I saw Everton at the Emirates last week and whilst they came for a draw, there wasnt much offensive threat at all. No Cahill or Arteta today, Newcastle have also lost Viduka to injury. Evertons defensive qualities are well known and to their credit, Newcastle have tightened up in recent weeks too. I dont think there will be much in this and I was surprised to get better than evens on under 2.5 goals

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Derby v Reading
Selection	Derby (+1) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	The 2 poorest sides ive seen this year meet. This has very much been priced up as an end of season "need to win" fixture. cant believe that Derby wont be up for this too though and doubt that Reading have the firepower to win by a couple here - they havent scored in 6.

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Derby v Reading
Selection	Derby (+1) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	The 2 poorest sides ive seen this year meet. This has very much been priced up as an end of season "need to win" fixture. cant believe that Derby wont be up for this too though and doubt that Reading have the firepower to win by a couple here - they havent scored in 6.

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	Sunderland v Arsenal
Selection	Sunderland (+0.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 2.06 (Back)
Reasoning	Value on Sunderland here bearing in mind the Arsenal team news. No Almunia or Lehmann, No Toure, Sagna, Fabregas, Flamini, Hleb, Rosicky, Diaby, Van Persie and of course Eduardo. (basically our entire 1st choice midfield is out). The line up will look something like this: Fabianski Hoyte Song Gallas Clichy Eboue Gilberto Denilson Walcott Bendtner Adebayor Not a bad side but still severley weakened and the fact that Arsenal are odds on to win this away from home, looks wrong to me. Sunderland are good enough at home to cover the handicap here.

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Eng - Prem)
Event	West Ham v Aston Villa
Selection	over 2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	11/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	8 of Villa's last 10 away games have breached the 2.5 goals mark. Whilst they clearly have goals in them (averaging 2 per game over that 10 game period), the only clean sheet has come at Derby. West Ham? Well 6 of their last 10 home games have gone over and the signs from the Newcaslte game last week suggest their defence will be accomodating to Villa whilst causing them enough problems at the other end.

[Carl]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

Fancy Blackburn to beat a Birmingham side that they have already beaten twice this season already, Birmingham are poor at home winning only 5 games.

Blackburn will be up for this and with Birmingham having to win, the gaps and chances will be plentiful for a good counter attacking Blackburn team.

Blackburn 11/4 @ Corals

Also going to back a striker who's benefitted from having an injury free season and is in good goal scoring form.

Santa Cruz anytime scorer 9/4 @ Corals

I can't believe the price for us to win today, Cruz TSF is a huge 7/1 with Corals as I was doing the scorecasts at work last night for this game.